-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
494
FXUS62 KMHX 290551
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
151 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front approaches late Sunday and moves through Monday. High
pressure once again builds over the area from the north on
Tuesday. Oppressive heat and humidity build the second half of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1000 PM Friday...No major changes with the forecast
update. Fairly stationary pseudo warm front is currently draped
across Hatteras Island and the Pamlico River, in a region of
continued weak convection. Front will then slowly lift northward
through the night, with PoPs increasing along and behind it.

Previous Discussion...As of 700 PM Fri...Showers which had
formed earlier along the sea breeze have dissipated with loss of
daytime heating. Low level flow then veers serly to srly
tonight as pseudo warm front lifts north through the region.
Area of higher moisture residing acrs the coastal counties in
tandem will support some showers this evening and tonight
(20-30% covg), with possibly some embedded thunder. Wrn zones
should remain dry with some patchy fog developing as winds
become light to calm overnight. Muggy lows in the 70s are
expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 10 PM Friday...No major changes with this update.

As of 330 PM Fri...Cont waa srly flow with temps warming, with
a few coastal showers in the morning transitioning inland
through the afternoon, with instability building with an iso
storm or two possible as well. No strong forcing in place
however, so severe threat is very low. Highs climb into the
low/mid 90s away from the coast, 80s for the beaches. TD`s will
not be quite high enough to support heat adv conditions, though
lower 100s should be commonplace by afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Fri...High pressure will continue to ridge down into
the Mid-Atlantic on Sat before pushing offshore on Sun as a cold
front begins to approach from the west. This will continue to bring
excessive heat and humidity to the area over the weekend. Heat
related impacts will be a threat in the afternoons through Sunday.
A frontal passage on Sun night into Monday will bring our next best
threat for precip and some relief from the heat. Mainly dry
conditions are then forecast from Tue on into the end of next
week with a warming trend and return to hot and humid conditions
expected as well.

Sunday through Monday...High pressure ridging continues to
extend across the Mid-Atlantic through early Sunday before a
cold front nears and eventually tracks across the region Sun
night into Mon. This will bring a threat for oppressive heat and
humidity to ENC Sun. High temps will generally range from the
upper 80s along the immediate coast and OBX to the mid to upper
90s across the Coastal Plain. Combined with the high humidity
across ENC, heat indices will reach 100 to potentially 110.
With lows only getting down into the 70s each night there will
not be much relief resulting in an increased threat for
excessive heat out ahead of the approaching cold front.

More widespread shower and tstm activity Sun afternoon into Mon
as the aforementioned front nears and tracks across the region.
With hot and humid conditions across ENC on Sun, guidance is
suggesting that SBCAPE values will creep up to 1000-2000 J/kg
Sun afternoon and evening out ahead of the front. Though, with
little in the way of deep layer shear and stronger forcing
likely not getting to ENC until later Sun night which is the
less favorable timeframe for severe weather, expect
thunderstorms to generally remain sub-severe in nature. Though,
a few isolated storms capable of producing gusty winds, small
hail, and torrential downpours is not out of the question during
this timeframe. Either way increasing precip chances start Sun
afternoon and persist through Mon morning before chances
decrease from NW to SE Mon afternoon as the front pushes
offshore and a more stable airmass overspreads the CWA. Have
limited PoP`s to Chc to likely during this timeframe as well as
there is some uncertainty with exact timing of precip and how
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be. In addition
to this, given the latest trends, 1 to 2, locally 3+ inches of
rainfall will not be out of the question with the heaviest
amounts occuring anywhere thunderstorms can train over each
other.

We do finally get some relief from the heat on Mon behind the front
with highs only getting into the 80s.

Tuesday into the end of next week...Behind this front a brief
respite from the heat is forecast on Tue with a return to hot
and humid conditions later next week as a warming trend
commences with high pressure once again ridging in from the
north. Expecting a mainly dry forecast as well from Tue onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Sun/...
As of 150 AM Sat...VFR conditions prevail across regional
terminals this morning as stalled frontal boundary sits from
roughly KHSE to south of EWN and OAJ. Scattered shower activity
along this boundary is ongoing over OBX terminals but is not
expected to penetrate far enough inland to cause any impacts.
Main focus overnight remains a mix of fog and low stratus, with
IFR cigs most favored across the fair inner coastal plain (PGV
and ISO, 40-50% chance). Restrictive visibilities are less
likely, but weak signal remains for areas mainly south and west
of OAJ.

Cu field will rapidly form tomorrow morning and will likely see
a brief period of MVFR cigs to start the day, becoming VFR by
midday. Isolated showers and an odd storm or two are likely to
develop along the sea breeze and progress inland during the
typical afternoon hours (18-22z), but coverage is too sparse to
mention in TAFs.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Fri...A cold front will arrive late Sun and track
across the region on Mon. This will bring a much better threat
for sub VFR conditions Sun afternoon through Mon before VFR
conditions return Tues into Wed.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 330 PM Fri...ENE winds 10-20 kt this afternoon and
evening will veer serly and diminish some to 5-15 kt. Winds cont
veering srly on Sat and remain 5-15 kt, with seas 2-4 ft.
Scattered showers and a few storms will dot the coastal waters
and sounds tonight, transitioning inland during the day Sat.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Fri...High pressure ridging will extend across our waters
on Sat before pushing further offshore on Sun as a cold front
approaches from the west. This will bring 10-15 kt S`rly winds
and 2-4 ft seas across our waters on Sat with winds increasing
slightly on Sun closer to 10-20 kts and becoming SW`rly as the
front nears the area and the gradient tightens slightly. Front
will track across the region on Mon allowing winds to shift to a
N`rly direction behind the front at 15-20 kts Mon morning with
winds gradually easing down to 10-15 kts as high pressure ridge
once again extends across the area from the north. Seas will
generally remain around 2-4 ft through this timeframe though 5
ft seas will be possible near the Gulf Stream waters Sun night
into Mon. In addition to this, expect widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sun evening into Mon as the front tracks across
the region bringing locally enhanced winds and seas within the
strongest storms.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RJ
SHORT TERM...TL/RJ
LONG TERM...DAG/RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF