Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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062 FXUS62 KMHX 251930 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure restrengthens offshore Wednesday, with another cold front crossing into the region Thursday. High pressure then builds in behind this feature from the north late week and into the weekend with another front Sunday night or Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
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As of 330 PM Tue...High pressure will extend into the region from offshore keeping eastern NC dry. We could see some patchy fog and areas of low stratus clouds develop again late as weak return flow helps to moisten the low levels overnight, esp swrn zones where TD`s were highest today. Lows will be typical for summer in the upper 60s interior to mid 70s beaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Tue...Trend for Wed has been for lowered TD`s, as atms is still in the recovering phase of return flow. This will keep heat indices below adv criteria, generally topping out around 100, maybe a degree or two higher, despite fcst high temps in the mid 90s inland. HREF probs for heat indices above 102 are only 10-20%. A stout onshore flow develops, keeping coastal locales in the 85-90 range for highs. Forcing for convection is non existent, so a dry fcst continues.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Tue...Heat and humidity continue this week with high pressure ridging into the area. Heat related impacts will be a threat most afternoons through this weekend, with the most oppressive heat potential Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry conditions likely Wednesday, with precip likely Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front moves through the area. Then more scattered diurnal activity is expected Friday through Sunday, with better chances arriving late Sunday and into Monday as another front moves in. Thursday through Friday...Though it will be humid, some mixing of drier air above the surface during the afternoon will keep heat indices from becoming extreme, but still expect values to range from 102 to 107 degrees. Another cold front will move into the region on Thursday, and with good model consensus, confidence is increasing that we will see good coverage of rain and thunderstorms (60-70% chance) throughout the day. Precip chances will continue Thursday night as the front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday morning. Behind this front a marginally cooler airmass very briefly builds in but it looks like heat and humidity will win out. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon with the highest chances over the coastal plain. It will be hot again and more humid Thursday ahead of the front, and if sufficient sunshine is seen before convection develops, highs will reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices climbing to 105 to 110 briefly. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Friday behind the front, but we hold on to the humidity and heat indices will again top 100 degrees and could be as high as 105 degrees. Saturday through Monday...Heat and humidity will build again this weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. With high humidity in place already there will be the potential for excessive heat as high temps soar into the mid to upper 90s, which will lead to heat indices reaching 103 to 108 degrees both Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday and Sunday, with increasing rain chances coming late Sunday and into Monday as another cold front moves through the region. Behind this front early next week the heat and humidity looks to break finally with near normal conditions expected.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Wed/... As of 2 PM Tue...With high pressure in control, we are looking at mainly a VFR TAF. However, with moist low levels/wet soils, and radiational cooling will lead to patchy fog and areas of low stratus clouds which will result in IFR conditions in the 8-12Z time frames, esp for KEWN and KOAJ where tempo restrictions are in place. Any fog and/or stratus will rapidly dissipate after 12Z. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 330 AM Tue...Mostly VFR conditions are expected this week with high pressure ridging in over the area. However, a cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the airspace Thursday and Thursday night, which could lead to some periods of sub-VFR conditions.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Wed/... As of 330 PM Tue...Serly winds 5-15 kt expected through this evening as high pressure builds over the waters. Tonight winds will continue to veer from SE to S late. Seas will be 2-3 ft. Late Wed afternoon/early evening, sswrly flow inc to sustained 15-20 kt towards evening as thermal gradient inc. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 330 AM Tue...Decent boating conditions expected this week with high pressure over the area aside from Thursday when a cold front moves through. Winds will strengthen to SSW 10-20 kts Wednesday night ahead of a cold front. The front will cross the waters during the day Thursday from north to south with winds becoming NE at 5-15 kts behind it and remaining SW 5-15 kts to its south. Veering NE to E flow is then expected Friday at 5-15 kts, with winds becoming SE at 10-15 kts Saturday. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft this week.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...SGK/RJ AVIATION...TL/SGK MARINE...TL/SGK