Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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494 FXUS62 KMHX 290551 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 151 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front approaches late Sunday and moves through Monday. High pressure once again builds over the area from the north on Tuesday. Oppressive heat and humidity build the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 PM Friday...No major changes with the forecast update. Fairly stationary pseudo warm front is currently draped across Hatteras Island and the Pamlico River, in a region of continued weak convection. Front will then slowly lift northward through the night, with PoPs increasing along and behind it. Previous Discussion...As of 700 PM Fri...Showers which had formed earlier along the sea breeze have dissipated with loss of daytime heating. Low level flow then veers serly to srly tonight as pseudo warm front lifts north through the region. Area of higher moisture residing acrs the coastal counties in tandem will support some showers this evening and tonight (20-30% covg), with possibly some embedded thunder. Wrn zones should remain dry with some patchy fog developing as winds become light to calm overnight. Muggy lows in the 70s are expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 10 PM Friday...No major changes with this update. As of 330 PM Fri...Cont waa srly flow with temps warming, with a few coastal showers in the morning transitioning inland through the afternoon, with instability building with an iso storm or two possible as well. No strong forcing in place however, so severe threat is very low. Highs climb into the low/mid 90s away from the coast, 80s for the beaches. TD`s will not be quite high enough to support heat adv conditions, though lower 100s should be commonplace by afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM Fri...High pressure will continue to ridge down into the Mid-Atlantic on Sat before pushing offshore on Sun as a cold front begins to approach from the west. This will continue to bring excessive heat and humidity to the area over the weekend. Heat related impacts will be a threat in the afternoons through Sunday. A frontal passage on Sun night into Monday will bring our next best threat for precip and some relief from the heat. Mainly dry conditions are then forecast from Tue on into the end of next week with a warming trend and return to hot and humid conditions expected as well. Sunday through Monday...High pressure ridging continues to extend across the Mid-Atlantic through early Sunday before a cold front nears and eventually tracks across the region Sun night into Mon. This will bring a threat for oppressive heat and humidity to ENC Sun. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate coast and OBX to the mid to upper 90s across the Coastal Plain. Combined with the high humidity across ENC, heat indices will reach 100 to potentially 110. With lows only getting down into the 70s each night there will not be much relief resulting in an increased threat for excessive heat out ahead of the approaching cold front. More widespread shower and tstm activity Sun afternoon into Mon as the aforementioned front nears and tracks across the region. With hot and humid conditions across ENC on Sun, guidance is suggesting that SBCAPE values will creep up to 1000-2000 J/kg Sun afternoon and evening out ahead of the front. Though, with little in the way of deep layer shear and stronger forcing likely not getting to ENC until later Sun night which is the less favorable timeframe for severe weather, expect thunderstorms to generally remain sub-severe in nature. Though, a few isolated storms capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, and torrential downpours is not out of the question during this timeframe. Either way increasing precip chances start Sun afternoon and persist through Mon morning before chances decrease from NW to SE Mon afternoon as the front pushes offshore and a more stable airmass overspreads the CWA. Have limited PoP`s to Chc to likely during this timeframe as well as there is some uncertainty with exact timing of precip and how widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be. In addition to this, given the latest trends, 1 to 2, locally 3+ inches of rainfall will not be out of the question with the heaviest amounts occuring anywhere thunderstorms can train over each other. We do finally get some relief from the heat on Mon behind the front with highs only getting into the 80s. Tuesday into the end of next week...Behind this front a brief respite from the heat is forecast on Tue with a return to hot and humid conditions later next week as a warming trend commences with high pressure once again ridging in from the north. Expecting a mainly dry forecast as well from Tue onwards. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through 06Z Sun/... As of 150 AM Sat...VFR conditions prevail across regional terminals this morning as stalled frontal boundary sits from roughly KHSE to south of EWN and OAJ. Scattered shower activity along this boundary is ongoing over OBX terminals but is not expected to penetrate far enough inland to cause any impacts. Main focus overnight remains a mix of fog and low stratus, with IFR cigs most favored across the fair inner coastal plain (PGV and ISO, 40-50% chance). Restrictive visibilities are less likely, but weak signal remains for areas mainly south and west of OAJ. Cu field will rapidly form tomorrow morning and will likely see a brief period of MVFR cigs to start the day, becoming VFR by midday. Isolated showers and an odd storm or two are likely to develop along the sea breeze and progress inland during the typical afternoon hours (18-22z), but coverage is too sparse to mention in TAFs. LONG TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/... As of 345 AM Fri...A cold front will arrive late Sun and track across the region on Mon. This will bring a much better threat for sub VFR conditions Sun afternoon through Mon before VFR conditions return Tues into Wed.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Sat/... As of 330 PM Fri...ENE winds 10-20 kt this afternoon and evening will veer serly and diminish some to 5-15 kt. Winds cont veering srly on Sat and remain 5-15 kt, with seas 2-4 ft. Scattered showers and a few storms will dot the coastal waters and sounds tonight, transitioning inland during the day Sat. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 345 AM Fri...High pressure ridging will extend across our waters on Sat before pushing further offshore on Sun as a cold front approaches from the west. This will bring 10-15 kt S`rly winds and 2-4 ft seas across our waters on Sat with winds increasing slightly on Sun closer to 10-20 kts and becoming SW`rly as the front nears the area and the gradient tightens slightly. Front will track across the region on Mon allowing winds to shift to a N`rly direction behind the front at 15-20 kts Mon morning with winds gradually easing down to 10-15 kts as high pressure ridge once again extends across the area from the north. Seas will generally remain around 2-4 ft through this timeframe though 5 ft seas will be possible near the Gulf Stream waters Sun night into Mon. In addition to this, expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Sun evening into Mon as the front tracks across the region bringing locally enhanced winds and seas within the strongest storms. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL/RJ SHORT TERM...TL/RJ LONG TERM...DAG/RCF AVIATION...MS/RCF MARINE...TL/RCF