-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
891
FXUS62 KMHX 262243
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
643 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore tonight, with a cold front
crossing into the region Thursday. High pressure then builds in
behind this feature from the north late week and into the
weekend with another front approaching late Sunday through
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 645 PM Wed...No significant changes needed to the
previous forecast for early eve update. Moisture will begin
streaming into eastern NC late tonight ahead of an approaching
weak cold front. A few isolated showers continue across the
coastal plain this afternoon, with cluster of convection ongoing
across NE SC. Later tonight, a weakening line of showers/storms
may make a run for the nrn tier of the FA late. Have retained a
20% chc for showers here, but most of this should dissipate
before making it to ENC. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies
and warm temps. Could see areas of low stratus clouds late. Low
level mixing should be sufficient to preclude fog as the
gradient increases ahead of the approaching front.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Another hot and humid day on tap, as area will
be just ahead of approaching cold front. This front and
lingering OB that resides across ENC from remnant overnight
convection, combined with developing sea breeze tomorrow
afternoon, should spark numerous thunderstorms after 18Z. Have
retained 60-70% pops for this. Area remains in marginal risk for
severe. Think the storm mode will be primarily multi cellular,
with biggest risk some large hail and strong downburst winds.
Before the convection, heat indices will be high again, and
possibly reach the 105 degree mark or even higher for several
hours. Will issue heat adv for most of ENC, excluding Downeast
Carteret and the nrn coastal plain counties. The onset of storms
will end the high heat/humidity by mid/late afternoon. Storms
will quickly move off the coast in the evening, with chances for
rain ending after around midnight, and quiet conditions in its
wake. Lows will be typical, in the low 70s interior to mid 70s
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Heat and humidity continue through this
weekend with high pressure ridging into the area. Heat related
impacts will be a threat most afternoons through Sunday, with
the most oppressive heat potential both Saturday and Sunday.
A cold front will bring likely chances for rain and
thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Then more scattered
diurnal activity is expected Friday through Sunday, with better
chances arriving late Sunday and into Monday as another front
moves in.

Friday...Front crosses the area and moves offshore Friday
morning. Behind this front a marginally cooler/drier airmass
will try to build in but will not be very successful, and humid
conditions will persist Friday. Scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances will be possible Friday afternoon with the
highest chances over the coastal plain.

Slightly cooler temperatures expected Friday behind the front,
but with humidity sticking around, heat indices will again top
100 degrees and could be as high as 105 degrees.

Saturday through Tuesday...Heat and humidity will increase again
this weekend with offshore ridging restrengthening. There will
be the potential for excessive heat Saturday and Sunday as high
temps soar into the mid to upper 90s inland and lower 90s along
the coast, which will lead to heat indices reaching 105 to 110
degrees both days.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday and
Sunday, with increasing rain chances coming late Sunday and into
Monday as another cold front moves through the region. Behind
this front early next week the heat and humidity looks to break
finally with near normal conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Thu/...
As of 645 PM Wed...With high pressure in control, we are
looking at mainly a VFR TAF again through tonight. Fog chances
tonight should be minimal due to sufficient low level mixing.
However, guidance shows an increasing threat for low stratus,
mainly MVFR to develop between 6-12z...which could linger
through mid morning Thu. After 18Z Thu, thunderstorms will
become likely, with reduction in vsby in heavy rain, along with
strong erratic gusty winds.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Convective activity will then become more
scattered and daytime focused Friday and Saturday, with some
periods of sub- VFR conditions possible. Another cold front will
arrive late Sunday and bring an increased chance of sub-VFR
conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Thu/...
As of 645 PM Wed...Latest obs show SSW winds 10-20 kt, gusting
to 25 kt across the northern waters and sounds. Short duration
SCA continues for northern sounds/rivers/coastal waters north of
Hatteras, as tightened gradient in sswrly flow will bring 25-28
kt gusts, esp for favored areas where funneling occurs (Croatan
Sound/Oregon Inlet/Alligator River) in this wind regime in the
summer. Winds will peak through the next few hours, diminishing
after 2 am.

Otherwise, winds will be 10-20 kt elsewhere with seas of 2-4 ft
for the coastal waters tonight. Winds dec on Thu to 5-15 kt with
front nearby. Strong thunderstorms develop in the afternoon into
early evening, with strong thunderstorm winds above 34 kt and
hail possible.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Wed...Decent boating conditions expected through
the weekend with high pressure over the area aside from
Thursday when a cold front moves through.

Winds will be SW 5-15 kts ahead of the front Thursday morning.
As the front crosses the waters later Thursday winds will likely
become variable as convective outflow boundaries crisscross the
area. Eventually light N/NE will develop Thursday night behind
the front, and then become easterly at 5-10 kts Friday. Winds
will then turn to the SE at 10-15 kts Saturday, and will
increase to SSW 10-20 kts Sunday ahead of another front. Seas
will be mostly 2-4 ft this week.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ045>047-
     080-081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ131-135-
     150-152-230-231.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SGK/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/TL/SGK
MARINE...CQD/TL/SGK