-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
647
FXUS62 KTAE 071426
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1026 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

No major changes to today`s forecast were required. Hourly PoPs
were adjusted mostly offshore where only isolated convection is
expected this afternoon. Late-morning satellite and surface
observations show a digging upper trough across the Eastern US and
attendant front draped SE of the Appalachians with light NW winds
steadily advecting dry air to the region.

The latest SPC mesoanalysis paints the highest Precipitable Water
in the FL Big Bend/South-Central GA at 1.6-1.8", which is
sufficient for thunderstorms capable of locally heavy downpours,
and rain chances are highest. Forcing mechanisms for convection
over this corridor will be the aforementioned front & trough, and
seabreeze. Peak DCAPE around 1000 J/kg suggests strong/gusty
convective winds.

Hot conditions are already underway with widespread low/mid 80s
already apparent. Valdosta and Cross City maxT`s were nudged up a
degree based on efficient mixing (discussed in the near term),
yesterday`s observed highs, and current MOS guidance.
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&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A lingering cold front draped across the Florida Panhandle and Big
Bend today will provide a small focus for showers and thunderstorms
to develop along during the afternoon hours. The best chances will
likely be where the diurnal sea-breeze and this front collide during
the afternoon. While PoP chances will be at their highest across the
Florida Big Bend, they will be near climatological values, which is
roughly 30-40% for this time of the year. Some of these storms could
produce strong gusty winds, and some minor nuisance flooding. With
the front passing through most of the region on Thursday, drier air
has started to push into the region, which will lead to deep mixing
across the region. This deep mixing will lead to high temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 90s across the region. Fortunately,
lower dewpoints in the low to mid 60s are expected to coincide with
the deep layer mixing, which will prevent heat index values from
climbing much beyond the 95 to the low 100s. With the drier air
continuing to advect into the region Friday night, overnight lows
will be able to fall into the mid 60s across SE Alabama and SW
Georgia, and the low 70s across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Hot temperatures from Friday are expected to continue into the
weekend as the center of an upper level ridge approaches the tri-
state region from the west. We`ll likely see the hottest
temperatures of season so far as we climb into the upper 90s on
Saturday and Sunday. While the lack of significant humidity will
keep the dangerous heat away, temps will still be above average
with heat indices likely in the low 100s. With the upper level
ridge overhead, no rain is expected this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The long term period will see a transition to wetter pattern but
the main uncertainty in the longer term is just how wet things
we`ll be. The week starts out with the upper level ridge weakening
as a broad upper level trough moves through the southern states.
This should help bring a weakening frontal boundary into the area
on Monday. Whether we squeeze out any rain will largely depend on
how quickly we can return the deep-layer moisture across the area.
Most ensemble guidance keeps conditions fairly dry Monday so POPs
were lowered on Monday compared to what the NBM gave us, but it
was noted that there are some wetter ensemble members in the GEPS
solutions where deep layer moisture streams quickly back so did
not stray too much drier from the NBM.

From Tuesday onwards, attention begins to turn to the south as the
area potentially sees a notable increase in deep-layer moisture
as winds become southerly and a moist tropical airmass advects
northwards into the Gulf. Whether this moist airmass sticks around
into the remainder of the week largely depends on how progressive
the upper level pattern across the CONUS is. The more progressive
GEFS solutions shunt tropical moisture off to the east while the
more amplified Euro ensembles would likely mean a slower
transition and eastward displacement of the rich tropical moisture
moving in from the south. Regardless, confidence is high in a
return to a few days of wet conditions, but uncertainty in whether
this sticks around into the end of the week and next week is
still large.

Accordingly, temperatures generally follow in inverse order to
rain chances. High temperatures in the upper 90s on Monday with
dry conditions cool off into the low to mid 90s by week`s end as
rain chances climb.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Some brief MVFR to IFR CIGS/VSBYs have developed at ECP and DHN
this morning. Outside of these restrictions, VFR conditions look
to prevail the remainder of the TAF period for all terminals. VCTS
was included at TLH and VLD as a trailing frontal boundary may
lead to some isolated thunderstorm development later this
afternoon. Beyond thunderstorms developing, expect clear skies to
take over beyond 00 utc as dry air invades the area.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1007 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting light winds below 10 kts with 1-2-ft
seas and a dominant period of 5-6 seconds late this morning.

From CWF Synopsis...Favorable boating conditions are expected
into the weekend with relatively light winds and no showers or
storms expected outside of isolated activity late this morning and
afternoon. Winds and seas will be highest today before decreases
to around 1 foot are expected this weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase early next week as well as southerly
winds as deep- tropical moisture begins to move in from the
south. Cautionary conditions are possible at some point early next
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

High dispersions north of I-10 today will be the largest fire
weather concern. Transport winds of around 10-15 mph out of the
northwest across SE Alabama and SW Georgia are the main reasons for
high dispersions today. For areas along and south of I-10, transport
winds will remain around 5-10 mph out of the west/northwest. With
deep mixing expected today, mixing heights will reach heights around
7000 to near 8000 feet today. Minimum RH values will likely only
fall into the upper 30s. Overall, there are minimal PoP chances
today, with the highest chances of (30-40%) being along coastal
Florida Big Bend zones where surface dewpoints will remain their
highest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Mostly dry weather is expected this weekend, followed by a wetter
patten developing sometime next week and possibly beyond into the
following weekend. It`s too early to speculate with rainfall
amounts and uncertainty remains rather large with regards to how
long deep-tropical moisture will stick around. In terms of rivers,
a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage but are on a
downward trend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Tallahassee   96  71  96  71 /  40  10  10   0
Panama City   90  72  91  74 /  20   0  10   0
Dothan        93  66  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        94  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      96  70  94  70 /  20  10  10   0
Cross City    95  73  95  71 /  60   0  20  10
Apalachicola  88  74  89  75 /  30  10  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Dobbs/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs