Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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471 FXUS65 KABQ 140554 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1154 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Very hot conditions over the region today will lead to a few record high temperatures. Clouds and sprinkles may provide some relief to a few lucky folks through the evening but very gusty winds may occur. A weather system will move across NM Friday with greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity will focus over northern and eastern NM where small hail, gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes are possible. Temperatures will be much cooler areawide. Heat will build over the region once again beginning Saturday. The next weather system will move across the region early next week with very dry, hot, and windy weather for several days possible. Extremely high fire danger may occur with this spring-like pattern. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A stout upper level ridge is almost squarely over NM this afternoon with soaring heights reaching near 596 decameters at 500 mb and temperatures quickly encroaching upon record daily highs. A weak surface trough and dryline is present over far eastern NM where some high-based cumulus are trying to go up, but even on the moist side of the boundary there is still very large surface dewpoint depressions with temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s. This will keep storms sparse over the far eastern tier of NM through early evening with mainly a downburst wind threat rather than any appreciable rainfall. Anemic cumulus are also trying to go up over the western mountains, but are even more limited due to lower dewpoints and a subtle subsidence temperature inversion as seen on this mornings ABQ sounding around 450 mb. Upstream, our upper low is currently inching toward the Tijuana area, and should draw in some more mid level moisture and faint divergence to western NM late tonight and into Friday morning. This feature should lift into southern CO as a weaker open wave, but should bring enough moisture to lead to a notable reduction in temperatures Friday along with a healthy coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area. PWATs will rise to near 1.0 inch roughly along and east of the central mountains while western areas peak near 0.7 to 0.9 for a brief time. Mid level flow will increase with mean 700-500 mb layer winds ranging between 15 to 30 kt, and this should keep showers and storms moving at a brisk pace north northeastward. This will hopefully mitigate the flash flooding threat over the HPCC burn scar, and there are no plans of issuing a Watch at this time. The Sangre de Cristos would likely be the area of focus with the potential for 2-3 or more rounds of showers/storms, but NBM QPF probabilities for greater than 0.5 inch of rainfall are all less than 20 percent around the Sangres, so this was another consideration. The FV3 was the lone CAM that advertises more concerning amounts, but given its tendency to sometimes overdue deep, moist convection, have opted to discount this as an outlier. A couple of strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out over the plains, mainly the northeastern zones Friday afternoon and evening. Most of the convection would be winding down by midnight with just a few east central counties retaining storms into early Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A weak shortwave trough passing over northeast NM Saturday morning will lift northeast while a shortwave ridge builds in from the west. Max temps will warm several degrees with values closer to normal for mid June. It will be very dry once again but some afternoon clouds and perhaps a few high-based showers may form over northeast NM. Sunday thru Tuesday will feature an upper level trough gradually approaching from the west. Southwest winds will trend stronger each day with a more spring-like pattern in place by Monday and Tuesday. Widespread breezy to locally windy conditions are expected with very hot temps and extremely low humidity. A couple Heat Advisories may be required as well. Fire danger may be extremely high during this period given the hot, dry, and windy conditions after lightning strikes possible tomorrow. Many extended forecast models are still showing an extensive upper level ridge building over the southern CONUS mid to late next week. Deep-layer south to southeast flow then allows abundant moisture to surge northwest into NM with increasing chances for showers and storms, especially along and east of the central mt chain thru the end of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Generally light winds for most areas overnight, with some breezy south winds at KTCC due to a LLJ east of the moisture boundary. An upper level trough approaches from the west Friday morning moving across northern NM during the day and exiting northeast NM Friday night. Daytime heating will allow showers and storms with gusty and erratic winds to develop across north central NM during the late morning hours. quickly moving into northeast and east central NM during the afternoon and evening hours. A storm to two across northeast and east central NM could become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and hail being the threats along with locally heavy rainfall. Brief MVFR visibilities and ceilings could be possible in stronger and heavier storms across northeast and east central NM including KCQC, KCVN and KCVS and other sites along and north of this line. Any shower and storm activity will be winding down and exiting into West Texas at the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Widespread hot temperatures are in progress this afternoon over northern and central NM. While some deeper low layer moisture is present in far eastern NM, there is not much in the way of rainfall relief expected through this evening, except in very small, isolated eastern spots. Along with the heat comes high instability (high Haines indices from steep temperature lapse rates and very dry air in the lower part of the atmosphere) and also the threat for dry lightning, as the rainfall will be so isolated. While it will be short-lived, there is relief on the way Friday, as a Pacific low pressure system will trek into southern CO, dragging more showers and storms into NM. Several locations will receive measurable rainfall, but areas that are expected to receive more than a tenth of an inch will likely be confined to the Sangre de Cristos eastward into nearby highlands and plains. Moderately breezy to locally windy conditions will also prevail Friday with passing storms stirring up stronger gusts, and this could perk up any ongoing fires in the area. The incoming showers, storms and associated humidity will keep critical conditions at bay on Friday, but mountains to the southwest of our area could be dry enough to support critical fire weather. Relief from the heat of Friday will fade quickly with rebounding temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will stay closer to normal Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but winds will turn stronger with much lower humidity that could lead to elevated or critical fire weather, particularly in northeastern or eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 99 66 85 54 / 0 20 50 10 Dulce........................... 93 50 78 41 / 0 5 40 20 Cuba............................ 96 57 77 48 / 0 10 60 20 Gallup.......................... 97 54 83 46 / 5 20 60 10 El Morro........................ 91 54 79 46 / 10 20 70 10 Grants.......................... 93 57 80 47 / 10 20 80 20 Quemado......................... 94 56 84 49 / 10 20 60 10 Magdalena....................... 93 62 83 57 / 0 10 60 20 Datil........................... 91 58 82 51 / 10 20 60 20 Reserve......................... 98 52 90 46 / 5 20 40 5 Glenwood........................ 101 67 95 59 / 5 20 30 0 Chama........................... 88 49 72 42 / 0 5 70 20 Los Alamos...................... 93 65 78 56 / 0 5 80 40 Pecos........................... 96 59 82 52 / 5 5 80 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 89 51 76 45 / 5 0 80 50 Red River....................... 78 43 70 42 / 5 5 80 50 Angel Fire...................... 83 35 73 35 / 5 5 80 50 Taos............................ 95 54 81 46 / 0 0 70 40 Mora............................ 88 53 77 47 / 10 5 90 50 Espanola........................ 99 62 86 53 / 0 0 70 40 Santa Fe........................ 93 64 81 54 / 0 5 80 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 98 61 84 52 / 0 5 70 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 99 68 85 60 / 0 5 60 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 101 70 86 62 / 0 5 60 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 102 63 88 54 / 0 5 50 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 101 68 86 60 / 0 5 50 30 Belen........................... 102 65 90 57 / 0 10 50 30 Bernalillo...................... 101 66 87 58 / 0 5 50 30 Bosque Farms.................... 102 62 89 53 / 0 10 50 30 Corrales........................ 101 65 87 57 / 0 5 50 30 Los Lunas....................... 103 64 89 55 / 0 10 50 30 Placitas........................ 99 66 84 57 / 0 5 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 99 68 86 60 / 0 5 50 30 Socorro......................... 105 70 93 63 / 0 10 50 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 94 62 80 55 / 0 5 60 40 Tijeras......................... 96 64 82 56 / 0 5 60 40 Edgewood........................ 95 60 82 53 / 0 5 70 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 96 56 84 49 / 0 5 70 50 Clines Corners.................. 92 59 79 52 / 5 5 70 60 Mountainair..................... 95 61 84 53 / 0 10 60 50 Gran Quivira.................... 94 61 86 53 / 5 10 70 50 Carrizozo....................... 101 68 91 62 / 10 10 60 50 Ruidoso......................... 94 54 83 53 / 20 10 70 50 Capulin......................... 93 55 82 51 / 20 10 80 50 Raton........................... 96 58 84 52 / 10 5 80 50 Springer........................ 99 58 86 53 / 10 5 80 50 Las Vegas....................... 90 57 79 51 / 10 5 80 60 Clayton......................... 101 63 89 61 / 20 20 50 60 Roy............................. 97 61 85 57 / 20 10 70 60 Conchas......................... 104 67 93 61 / 10 10 50 70 Santa Rosa...................... 98 66 88 59 / 10 5 60 60 Tucumcari....................... 102 67 93 61 / 20 20 30 70 Clovis.......................... 101 68 94 64 / 20 20 20 70 Portales........................ 100 68 95 63 / 20 20 20 60 Fort Sumner..................... 102 69 94 63 / 10 10 40 70 Roswell......................... 107 73 100 70 / 20 20 20 40 Picacho......................... 102 67 92 61 / 10 10 50 50 Elk............................. 96 64 91 57 / 20 20 50 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...71