Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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036 FXUS65 KABQ 180825 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 225 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Today will be the warmest day of the year thus far in many locations with Roswell likely seeing its first 100 degree day. The hot weather continues through Monday, then temps drop to within a few degrees of seasonal averages Tuesday and remain there through the end of the week. Gusty southwest to west winds will create critical fire weather conditions in western and central areas Monday, with elevated conditions on Sunday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Tilted ridge will work to straighten up, bringing its axis over NM this afternoon. Pressure heights will rise another few decameters, allowing sfc temperatures to also rise a few to several degrees. Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase a skosh, just enough to allow for adiabatic compression to have its effect on daytime highs. As such, did trend temperatures on the higher side of guidance. This added heat influence may push KROW over the edge of the century mark today and definitely will tomorrow. An incoming wave will bring just enough lift to make use of recycled moisture in the northern mts, sparking virga showers in the afternoon and evening. Above normal temperatures will prevail overnight with some decent valley inversions setting up thanks to the drier air. Showers in the northern high terrain will taper off after midnight. Some of the warmest temperatures so far this season will take hold on Sunday across portions of central and eastern NM. As previously mentioned, KROW will surpass 100F and nearby KCVS will get within spitting distance of the mark. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough will bring a degree or two of cooling to the west. Very dry conditions will be seen areawide, with widespread single digit RH values sparking the need for a Chapstick Advisory. Breezy to locally windy southwest winds across the central mts and eastward will reign supreme in the afternoon with lighter magnitudes of west winds expected across areas west of the central mts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Typical dry, breezy, and warm weather will be the story next week. Monday looks to be both the hottest and windiest day of the week thanks to a trough traversing the southern Rockies. The strongest wind gusts (up to 45 mph) are likely across western NM, with weaker winds in the east. A dry cold front crosses the state from west to east Monday night, knocking down temps 5-10 degrees and ushering in an even drier airmass. Another, even weaker, cold front will graze northern NM Tuesday night. Its backdoor component will dry to push down the eastern plains, but westerly flow will quickly take over in the late morning, pushing the cooler and more moist airmass to the east. With the polar jet stream to the north, relatively weak zonal flow will prevail across central and northern NM mid to late week, with little sensible weather change from day to day. Temperatures will hover within a few degrees of seasonal averages during the day and the dry airmass will help temps drop 25-35 degrees each night. Long- term guidance is in good agreement that a somewhat stationary longwave trough will develop over the Pacific Northwest over the weekend into the following week, likely prolonging the dry, breezy weather for several more days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. Gusty and very light intensity shwrs will return tomorrow aftn across the nrn mts. Swly winds will become gusty in the aftn, particularly across the central mts and wwd. Gusts and very light RA will taper off aft sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 A warming and drying trend takes hold this weekend through next week with widespread low relative humidity and occasional gusty winds. A ridge of high pressure will keep winds in check today but breezy to locally windy west to southwest winds will prevail on Sunday. MinRH drops another few percent on Sunday compared to Saturday, bringing widespread low double digit and single digit values. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions will favor areas east of the central mts, where thankfully a moderate amount of rainfall will limit ERCs. Monday continues to be the prime day for concern as widespread very low RH values persist amongst strengthening southwest winds, bringing the potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions. These conditions will most notably be favored in western and central New Mexico, which received less rainfall and had significant lightning activity in the last week. Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist on Tuesday amongst continued low minRH. Wednesday will offer a bit of a reprieve as winds slacken but an incoming disturbance may bring stronger winds towards the end of the week. Single digit RH will persist for greater than 6hrs several days this week, often in areas of denser fuels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 84 48 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 79 41 76 37 / 5 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 79 46 76 42 / 5 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 39 79 35 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 76 42 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 81 40 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 80 44 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 81 52 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 79 46 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 84 40 83 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 89 54 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 73 40 70 37 / 5 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 77 53 75 50 / 5 10 0 0 Pecos........................... 79 47 76 46 / 0 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 43 70 43 / 10 10 0 0 Red River....................... 69 38 67 37 / 10 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 72 33 69 32 / 10 10 0 0 Taos............................ 78 42 76 38 / 5 5 0 0 Mora............................ 75 43 74 42 / 5 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 84 51 83 46 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 79 52 77 49 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 82 50 81 47 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 84 57 84 55 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 58 86 53 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 88 54 88 51 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 87 55 86 53 / 0 5 0 0 Belen........................... 89 52 89 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 87 55 86 51 / 0 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 88 52 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 87 54 87 52 / 0 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 88 52 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 83 55 82 52 / 0 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 86 56 86 52 / 0 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 91 56 92 52 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 52 77 49 / 0 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 81 52 80 49 / 0 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 81 48 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 82 43 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 79 47 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 81 51 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 82 49 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 86 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 80 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 77 48 78 45 / 10 10 0 0 Raton........................... 81 47 81 43 / 10 20 0 0 Springer........................ 82 48 82 43 / 10 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 80 47 78 45 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 86 52 87 54 / 5 5 0 0 Roy............................. 82 52 82 48 / 5 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 90 55 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 87 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 92 55 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 94 58 95 58 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 95 57 97 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 92 56 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 100 61 101 61 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 89 58 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 87 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...12