Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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457 FXUS65 KABQ 162336 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 536 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 The combination of a disturbance and a backdoor front is bringing a round of showers and storms to much of NM this afternoon, but the focus will shift to eastern NM through the evening hours before activity diminishes overnight. A few strong to severe storms can not be ruled out across the east central and southeast plains. A warming and drying trend is forecast from Friday through early next week, with increasing westerly winds on Sunday and Monday. Roswell is forecast to hit 100 for the first time this year on Sunday, then repeat on Monday. Albuquerque will flirt with the first 90 degree day of the year this weekend, most likely on Sunday. Warm, dry and breezy conditions will then continue through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 The upper low is currently moving east toward the South Central Mountains, per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, with and 2nd circulation moving south over southern AZ. The secondary circulation will slow the eastward progress of the upper low over southern NM and may allow convection to linger across central/eastern NM longer than currently forecast overnight. A few severe storms are still possible near the TX border across the east central plains through this afternoon, with both large hail and damaging winds possible. Moderate forecast confidence on the development of low stratus/fog early Friday morning, but low forecast confidence on placement. Given the soaking rains in central NM, the middle/lower RGV and the Estancia Valley seem like solid bets, so added a mention of patchy fog there. The upper low will exit to the east tonight and be replaced by a trailing ridge on Friday, which will begin a warming/drying trend. Friday will be much warmer and generally within a few degrees of normal for mid May. Lingering moisture will be sufficient, when combined with daytime heating, to produce some late day buildups along the central mountain chain. Slightly more well-developed convection is possible in/near the South Central Mountains Friday afternoon and may move off to the southeast across southeast Lincoln and southwest Chaves Counties, but very little measurable rain is expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 The warming/drying trend continues through the weekend and into early next week, with temperatures rising above normal areawide Saturday. Roswell is still forecast to reach 100 degrees for the first time this year over the weekend, most likely not until Sunday with a repeat on Monday. Albuquerque isn`t forecast to hit 90 degrees for the first time this year in this forecast cycle, but will come close on Sunday when 89 is forecast at the Sunport. Winds will be on the uptrend Sun/Mon with increasing W-SW flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Monday will be the windiest day with potential to reach advisory threshold. Warm, dry and breezy conditions will persist Tue/Wed, followed by increasing winds again by Thursday as an upstream trough moves from the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain over much of the forecast area as an upper low tracks eastward over southeastern NM this hour. This activity will steadily trend down in coverage over the next few hours to 03Z, sticking around the longest over east-central and southeastern NM. There is enough low-level moisture to allow for some valley fog development overnight into Friday morning. This was mentioned before and kept in the KABQ and KAEG TAFs, and added to the KLVS TAF. Light and variable winds remain the rule through Friday morning before prevailing southwesterly to westerly winds gusting 10 to 20 kts pick up in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Good chances for wetting storms will continue through this evening across eastern and portions of central NM as an upper level low continues to move east across the area. A warming/drying trend is forecast to begin Friday under the influence of an upper level ridge. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will gradually spread east over the area through the weekend. The ridge will move east and be replaced by increasing westerly flow Sunday, with the potential for critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM. However, recent and ongoing rain has likely enhanced ongoing greenup. The bigger fire weather concern will come Monday with stronger southwest winds developing ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Critical conditions will be more widespread Monday and fuels across western NM may be receptive to ignitions. A Fire Weather Watch for Monday may be required. Warm, dry and breezy conditions will prevail Tue/Wed, but not as windy as Monday. Winds will crank back up Thursday in advance of an upstream trough, with critical fire weather potential returning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 43 82 46 85 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 34 76 37 80 / 30 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 39 75 43 79 / 30 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 81 39 82 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 75 42 78 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 79 41 83 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 40 76 44 81 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 78 51 82 / 30 5 0 0 Datil........................... 42 75 46 79 / 30 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 81 39 84 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 50 85 53 88 / 20 5 0 0 Chama........................... 34 70 37 73 / 40 5 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 45 73 50 78 / 30 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 39 73 45 78 / 30 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 69 41 74 / 20 5 0 5 Red River....................... 31 63 35 67 / 30 5 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 28 66 31 71 / 30 5 0 5 Taos............................ 33 74 37 79 / 20 0 0 0 Mora............................ 36 71 41 77 / 30 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 44 80 46 84 / 20 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 44 74 49 80 / 30 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 78 47 83 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 80 56 84 / 30 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 81 54 86 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 84 53 88 / 20 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 82 54 86 / 20 0 0 0 Belen........................... 46 85 51 89 / 20 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 48 83 53 87 / 30 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 45 84 50 88 / 20 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 47 83 52 87 / 20 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 46 84 50 89 / 20 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 48 79 53 83 / 30 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 48 82 53 86 / 20 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 50 86 55 90 / 20 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 44 74 49 78 / 30 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 45 76 49 81 / 30 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 41 76 46 82 / 30 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 78 40 83 / 20 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 39 74 45 80 / 20 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 42 76 49 81 / 30 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 41 76 47 82 / 20 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 79 55 85 / 20 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 44 72 51 78 / 20 20 0 0 Capulin......................... 40 74 45 78 / 20 5 0 5 Raton........................... 39 78 43 82 / 30 5 0 0 Springer........................ 39 78 43 84 / 30 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 39 74 45 81 / 30 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 47 80 55 85 / 20 0 0 0 Roy............................. 43 75 49 84 / 40 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 48 82 52 91 / 30 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 47 80 51 88 / 30 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 48 83 53 92 / 60 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 51 80 55 91 / 70 0 0 0 Portales........................ 50 82 54 93 / 70 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 49 83 53 93 / 40 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 57 86 58 99 / 30 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 49 80 56 89 / 20 20 0 0 Elk............................. 46 76 53 86 / 20 20 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...24