448
FXUS65 KABQ 211740 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A storm system will move east across the region today and
tonight, bringing windy conditions and good chances for showers
and storms favoring north central and eastern NM. Some storms may
become severe across eastern NM and produce large hail and
damaging winds. Storms will produce heavy rain and potential for
flash flooding across the northeast quarter of the state, with
an elevated threat for burn scar flooding. Cooler and quieter
conditions will prevail Sunday and Monday, followed by chances for
showers and storms across eastern New Mexico going into mid week.
A drying and warming trend is forecast going into the end of the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A deep upper low is currently overtaking the lower Colorado river
basin at the CA-AZ border, and this feature will trek northeastward
over the Four Corners by mid afternoon before lifting into eastern
CO late tonight. Rich moisture is in place over eastern NM due to
prolonged warm, moist air advection that has been ongoing over the
past 30 hours or so, and PWATs will range from 1.0 up to 1.5 inch
with highest values near the eastern NM-TX border. The low will
bring a large swath of lift and upward forcing with a diffluent 110
kt jet nosing ahead of it into NM at 300 mb.

Currently, showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are ongoing over
eastern zones, and these will undergo some ebbs and flows through
the morning with most CAMs suggesting a big uptick in coverage after
dawn over the northeastern quadrant of the state where strong
diffluence will be located. This will create some extensive areas of
low clouds and keep things somewhat stable, but breaks in the clouds
are expected to multiply into the afternoon, destabilizing the
boundary layer. HREF suggests 1000 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE by mid to
late afternoon over the southeastern counties of the CWA with
northeastern ones gaining some stability due to the backdoor segment
of the front that will be moving in. Backed easterly surface flow is
progged in the east central zones, and this will add a significant
component to the directional shear profiles with the HREF painting
200-400 m2/s2 of 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the late
afternoon hours. This will not only create a heavy rain, large hail,
and damaging wind threat but also introduce a slight tornado threat
for east central to southeastern NM this afternoon and early this
evening. A Flood Watch will be issued for northeastern to east
central NM where fast-moving, but heavy raining storms will develop
and possibly redevelop atop of saturated soils from morning
rainfall. The HPCC wildfire burn scar will also be included in this
Flood Watch. Not to be forgotten, but closer to the low itself, some
showers and thunderstorms will also start to develop in north
central to northwestern NM by the afternoon. Windy conditions will
develop in the Rio Grande valley this afternoon before turning
westerly as the Pacific front overtakes central NM.

After showers and thunderstorms work over northeastern and east
central NM this evening the northerly wind component associated with
the backdoor cold front will become more prevalent after midnight.
Some scattered to broken patches of low stratus will be left over
eastern zones, possibly spitting some light rain or drizzle on east
slope locations. These low spitting clouds will retreat into west TX
through the late morning and early afternoon Sunday. Daytime highs
will run 5 to 12 degrees cooler on Sunday across central to eastern
NM with almost all areas staying below normal by 5 to 20 degrees
(biggest departures in northeast NM).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A backdoor front will push west through the central mountain chain
Sunday night and create a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the Rio
Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys, but with speeds below advisory
threshold. Some warming is forecast Monday with rising pressure
heights, but daytime temperatures will still be below normal most
areas. Sufficient moisture combined with daytime heating will
trigger a few showers and storms across the northern mountains and
adjacent eastern highlands Monday afternoon/evening. The medium
range model solutions are still at odds with the handling of an
upstream trough dropping southeast across the central/southern
Rockies Monday night through Tuesday. The GFS is still the drier
solution, with good run-to-run consistency depicting a more
dominant upper high over the Great Basin moving east over the
southern Rockies and NM Tue/Wed. The ECMWF is still the wetter
solution showing the trough closing off an upper low over the TX
Panhandle Tue/Wed, then slowly meandering east thereafter.
However, the ECMWF is trending further east with the upper low and
if that trend continues, then the warmer/drier GFS solution may
be the better forecast from mid to late next week. Forecast
confidence is still low for Tue/Wed at this time, but if rain is
in the cards then eastern NM will be favored. Temperatures will
trend up from mid through late week and be above normal most areas
by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast expand to central and
north central areas early this afternoon, and then west and
southwest toward the KFMN and KGUP areas by late afternoon.
Strong south winds in the middle RGV including KABQ and KAEG of
25 to 35 kt could warrant an Airport Weather Warning (for KABQ)
late this afternoon. A backdoor cold front will then slide toward
the west and southwest from eastern NM this afternoon. As a
result, thunderstorms turn strong to severe. Large hail, gusty
downburst winds, and frequent lightning are expected. The backdoor
front will keep easterly upslope flow over eastern NM overnight,
helping to keep at least patchy MVFR and IFR conditions at times
into Sunday morning, including KLVS, KTCC and KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The already high chances for soaking rainfall will only rise more
through the afternoon over east central to northeastern NM today as
a deep low pressure system approaches the Four Corners area. Locally
heavy rain and strong to severe storms will be possible, especially
in east central NM this afternoon through the evening. Western areas
of NM will essentially remain dry and breezy during today with
stronger south winds (gusts of 35 to 45 mph) found in the Rio Grande
valley this afternoon. While the humidity forecast for the Rio
Grande valley has trended upwards, the humidity values will still be
rather low and close to a 15 to 20 percent range late this
afternoon. This could produce a couple hours of marginally critical
fire weather south of Albuquerque through Socorro this afternoon
when rapid fire spread could be possible. Showers and thunderstorms
will remain very active over northeastern to east central NM this
evening, but will be mostly dying off by midnight. Much cooler
weather is then forecast for Sunday with much lower chances for
showers and storms while moderate east or northeast winds keep
feeding into much of central and eastern NM. Isolated showers or
storms cannot be ruled out in the northern NM mountains on Monday
with warmer, but still below normal, temperatures and more relaxed
winds. Another disturbance and potential cool front could arrive on
Tuesday, reintroducing moisture/showers/storms to eastern NM
Tuesday, lingering into the east central zones on Wednesday. A
mostly dry weather pattern is expected for the remainder of next
week with generally light to moderate breezes expected, however it
should be noted that the forecast details remain highly uncertain
Wednesday onward due to large differences among forecast models.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  73  42  73  45 /  60  10   5   0
Dulce...........................  72  33  68  34 /  80  20  10   5
Cuba............................  72  36  68  39 /  70  20   5   0
Gallup..........................  70  33  74  35 /  60   5   5   0
El Morro........................  67  34  71  39 /  50   0   5   0
Grants..........................  72  33  73  36 /  40   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  69  36  72  39 /  20   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  76  44  72  45 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  71  37  71  40 /  10   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  71  37  81  41 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  74  45  83  49 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  66  31  62  32 /  90  30  20   5
Los Alamos......................  72  44  65  44 /  60  20  10   0
Pecos...........................  70  43  63  40 /  70  30  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  64  38  62  38 /  80  40  20   0
Red River.......................  57  32  53  31 /  90  60  20   0
Angel Fire......................  60  27  54  24 /  90  50  20   0
Taos............................  69  37  65  34 /  80  30  10   0
Mora............................  64  36  60  36 /  80  50  20   0
Espanola........................  78  42  73  42 /  60  30  10   0
Santa Fe........................  75  43  67  44 /  70  20  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  79  41  71  41 /  60  20   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  50  76  49 /  40  10   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  51  77  51 /  40   5   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  85  47  79  47 /  30   5   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  49  78  49 /  40   5   5   0
Belen...........................  85  44  78  44 /  20   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  47  79  47 /  40  10   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  85  43  78  43 /  30   5   5   0
Corrales........................  83  48  79  48 /  40  10   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  45  78  45 /  30   0   0   0
Placitas........................  82  46  74  46 /  50  10   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  81  48  77  48 /  40   5   5   0
Socorro.........................  85  50  82  50 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  43  66  41 /  50  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  78  41  68  38 /  50   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  77  39  67  35 /  50  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  39  66  35 /  60  10   5   0
Clines Corners..................  72  45  61  39 /  70  20   5   0
Mountainair.....................  77  41  69  38 /  40   5   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  78  42  70  40 /  40   5   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  80  49  76  48 /  40   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  74  47  69  43 /  50   0  10   5
Capulin.........................  62  40  51  35 /  90  70  20   0
Raton...........................  64  42  59  35 /  90  70  20   0
Springer........................  68  43  63  37 /  90  40  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  68  40  62  38 /  80  40  10   0
Clayton.........................  68  47  58  41 /  90  70  10   0
Roy.............................  68  45  62  40 /  90  60   5   0
Conchas.........................  75  52  68  45 /  80  60   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  74  50  64  43 /  80  50   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  77  53  67  43 /  80  60   5   0
Clovis..........................  81  57  64  46 /  80  60  10   5
Portales........................  83  58  65  46 /  80  60  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  78  55  66  45 /  80  40   5   0
Roswell.........................  91  61  70  55 /  50  20   0   5
Picacho.........................  84  50  73  47 /  40   5   5   0
Elk.............................  82  47  75  45 /  40   0   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215-228>235.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...33