Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
958 FXUS65 KABQ 172332 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 532 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Dry, breezy to windy and hot weather remains one more day Tuesday. A significant change to the weather pattern arrives Wednesday with an influx of cooler and wetter weather invading eastern New Mexico. This cooler and wetter airmass will spread through central and western New Mexico by Thursday morning. While precipitation chances will shoot upward all areas, the potential for more convectively driven thunderstorms will exist more over central and western New Mexico Thursday and Friday afternoons. Lighter and more steady rainfall is looking more likely through the highlands and eastern plains of New Mexico. Overall, this will increase the risk of burn scar flash flooding. A strong east canyon wind in eastern Albuquerque and Santa Fe also looks likely Wednesday night through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The latest water vapor imagery shows an impressive dry intrusion spreading across much of AZ and NM ahead of a broad upper level trough entering the Great Basin. Deep mixing in response to very strong afternoon heating with large surface dewpoint depressions is tapping stronger winds aloft with widespread surface wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph at 2pm. These unseasonably strong winds with very low humidity will continue to generate dangerous fire weather conditions for parts of the region thru sunset. A new fire start in extreme northeast Otero County west of Ruidoso is producing a well-defined smoke plume already. This will become impactful to air quality as we progress thru tonight and Tuesday. Elsewhere, just enough low level moisture with backing wind profiles across extreme far eastern NM may allow for a couple storms to fire up after 4pm near the TX/NM border. This activity will move quickly east away from the area but some of the strongest cells may produce hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, the remainder of this evening into the overnight will feature decreasing winds with slowly falling temps thru midnight. By Tuesday, the upper level trough axis will still be west of the area but with slightly higher H5 pressure heights over NM. Southwest winds will trend lighter but still breezy across eastern NM and the higher terrain. Temps will be very hot once again across eastern NM with another Heat Advisory possible for Roswell. Very dry air will also remain in place over the region with min humidity values below 10% in many areas. The dryline is expected to be farther east into west TX so there are no precip chances even for far eastern NM. A backdoor cold front will enter far northeast NM Tuesday evening while low level return flow deepens across southeast NM. Low clouds are expected to develop westward after midnight, especially across northeast NM and along the TX/NM border. There is an abundance of moisture, shear, instability, and lift along the boundary so a few strong storms cannot be ruled out Tuesday night over northeast NM if the capping inversion is broken. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A significant change to the weather pattern arrives Wednesday in the form of a potent backdoor cold front invading northeastern NM and meeting up with abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico advecting westward into eastern NM. Temperatures fall 10F to 15F from Tuesday`s forecast across eastern NM as a result. Upslope flow to the central mountain chain combined with the influx of moisture will aid in the initiation of afternoon storms there that track back east over the eastern plains late Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Thunderstorm outflow will aid the westerly surge of this cooler and wetter airmass through the gaps of the central mountain chain Wednesday night, reaching the Continental Divide and AZ border Thursday morning. Strong east canyon winds at Santa Fe and Albuquerque look very likely, with sustained winds above 30 mph gusting above 50 mph. These strong east canyon winds look to continue well into the day Thursday for Albuquerque and Santa Fe, if not through the entire day. Thursday and Friday see the highest moisture content arrive into the Rio Grande Valley and through western NM. Dewpoints rise into the 50s at Albuquerque and look to flirt with 60F by next weekend, matching well with the modeled increase in PWATs to 1.00" to 1.25" during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers are favored each afternoon across much of the forecast area as a result, at minimum. The main question in the forecast is the stability along and east of the central mountain chain, due to the likelihood of a persistent and stubborn low-level stratus cloud deck and cooler boundary layer temperatures. The combination of near zero SBCAPE across the eastern plains and abundant dry air above 550mb will severely limit the potential for vertical development of any convection across the eastern half of the state. Much of the precipitation potential here will thus be in a light stratiform rain event as a result. Higher temperatures further west starting in the Rio Grande Valley and to AZ will steadily increase the potential for more convectively driven thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday afternoons. The overall increase of precipitation chances brings an increased risk of burn scar flash flooding. However there is some limitation here, especially for the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn area, due to the limited instability. The H5 high strengthens this weekend with the centroid favoring a position over west-central to southwestern NM. Low-level moisture will linger across the forecast area with temperatures trending warm. This will favor a fairly standard summer time thunderstorm pattern Saturday and Sunday with storms initiating over the high terrain and then moving over surrounding lower elevations late day and evening. The slowest storm motions will favor the Gila NF of Catron County where the centroid of the H5 looks to be. More easterly to southeasterly storm motions will be present elsewhere over northern and southeastern NM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 524 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and central New Mexico with mostly clear skies. A few bubbling cumulus are expected to develop into thunderstorms on the southeastern and eastern periphery of the Albuquerque forecast area with cells quickly moving into west TX through the early evening. Wildfires in the Sacramento mountains will produce smoke toward KSRR and just west of KROW through the evening too. Breezy to windy conditions will settle to light to moderate breezes this evening with gusty, but more subdued, winds expected on Tuesday. In addition, very hot temperatures will remain in place, leading to high density altitude readings suggestive of poor aircraft performance for some. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON... Southwest winds will continue to strengthen thru late afternoon across the region with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely in many areas before sunset. Meanwhile, very unstable conditions with single digit humidity in parts of central and western NM will keep Red Flag conditions going thru mid evening. Winds will trend lighter by midnight but humidity recovery will be poor in many areas. Single digit humidity is expected again Tuesday but winds will be lighter than today. Conditions will still be breezy enough for elevated to locally critical fire weather over northeast NM. Confidence was not high enough to support another Red Flag given lower ERC values and higher soil moisture. However, if winds trend stronger with model guidance tonight then a Red Flag may be needed. A moist backdoor cold front then slides into eastern NM Tuesday night with much higher moisture for Wednesday. This moisture will set the stage for increasing chances of showers and storms through the end of the week across central and eastern NM. Some of this activity may be locally heavy with burn scar flash flooding possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 51 86 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 83 47 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 50 84 50 87 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 45 85 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 49 81 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 45 86 46 91 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 50 85 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 59 89 58 89 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 51 85 52 87 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 43 88 44 92 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 59 92 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 43 77 44 82 / 0 0 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 63 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 20 Pecos........................... 51 84 51 81 / 0 0 0 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 79 48 80 / 0 0 0 30 Red River....................... 45 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 40 Angel Fire...................... 38 76 37 74 / 0 0 0 40 Taos............................ 48 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 20 Mora............................ 49 83 48 77 / 0 0 0 50 Espanola........................ 57 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 59 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 95 62 97 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 58 96 58 97 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 63 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 55 95 56 97 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 58 94 58 96 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 54 95 55 97 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 65 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 63 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 10 Socorro......................... 63 98 63 100 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 20 Tijeras......................... 60 90 60 89 / 0 0 0 20 Edgewood........................ 61 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 89 52 87 / 0 0 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 53 84 53 80 / 0 0 0 30 Mountainair..................... 59 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 20 Gran Quivira.................... 54 89 55 90 / 0 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 64 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 58 86 57 83 / 0 0 0 40 Capulin......................... 58 86 55 71 / 0 0 10 50 Raton........................... 56 89 54 77 / 0 0 5 40 Springer........................ 58 92 56 80 / 0 0 5 50 Las Vegas....................... 53 84 52 77 / 0 0 0 40 Clayton......................... 63 94 59 78 / 5 0 10 40 Roy............................. 64 89 61 79 / 0 0 10 50 Conchas......................... 68 97 65 87 / 0 0 5 40 Santa Rosa...................... 66 94 64 86 / 0 0 0 40 Tucumcari....................... 68 97 66 87 / 5 0 5 30 Clovis.......................... 65 94 64 85 / 5 5 5 20 Portales........................ 67 97 66 86 / 5 5 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 68 98 68 89 / 0 0 0 20 Roswell......................... 70 105 69 94 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 61 97 61 87 / 0 0 0 40 Elk............................. 59 94 58 84 / 0 0 0 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-109- 121-123. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...52