172
FXUS65 KABQ 181117 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
517 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Patchy fog may develop in southeastern NM early this morning. Dry
weather with a light breeze will prevail across the area today
and tomorrow. Another storm system will impact the region Friday
and Saturday, bringing strong to severe storms to eastern NM, then
ushering in cooler temps for the weekend. Rain associated with
another storm system is possible in the east early next week, but
confidence is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, the upper low is
pulling northeast out of the central Rockies while the westerlies
bring in much drier air across the Desert SW and southern Rockies.
The 00Z upper air analysis showed dewpoint depressions of 30-40
degrees across AZ and southern NM, but a moist near-surface layer is
holding on across the east central and southeast plains where areas
of low stratus/fog will likely develop toward sunrise. Today will be
pleasant with less wind and void of convection. Another upper level
low, currently diving south toward the northern CA coast per the
latest water vapor imagery, will continue south along the coast
through Thursday, bringing backing winds aloft and rising pressure
heights as ridging amplifies somewhat ahead of this upper air
feature. The result will be 2-5 degrees of warming Thursday and
daytime temperatures that are above normal everywhere except the
northwest plateau. Low stratus/fog development is possible again
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the southeast and
east central plains as Gulf moisture is drawn north and west due to
the approaching upper low, however forecast confidence is too low to
include in the forecast at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Another early season trough will approach the state from the west
late week, impacting the area Friday through early Sunday. A
southerly afternoon breeze will prevail in most areas Thursday
afternoon as warmer air is advected in from the south out ahead of a
Pacific storm system. The trough moves into the Mojave desert on
Friday, increasing southerly winds to a strong breeze.  This in
combination with a ridge over TX will pull Gulf moisture northward
into eastern NM. Models are in good agreement that this will create
at least scattered storms along and east of the central mtn chain
Friday afternoon through the evening. Moisture remains in place
across the east as the base of the trough moves eastward into
northern NM on Saturday. Models have gotten into better agreement on
the depth of the trough as it moves overhead, but there are still
some timing discrepancies. A faster moving trough shown by the GEFS
ensemble would have less time to interact with moisture, likely
producing less rainfall. On the other hand, the slower moving
solution posed by the EC and CMC ensembles would bring more rain to
northern and eastern areas on Saturday afternoon. Strong shear and
instability in the east will likely support a severe threat again
Saturday afternoon. A cold front will cross the area as the base of
the trough swings through, dropping temps to the coolest values of
the season thus far Saturday night. Temps will drop below freezing
in many mountain valleys and temps could dip into the upper 40s
along the middle Rio Grande Valley near Albuquerque. As the trough
exits into the High Plains, it could send another front through the
area from the northeast. A low-end east wind event is possible if
the front makes it through the central mountain chain. After Sunday,
the synoptic pattern could get messy and there is poor agreement
among global models. There is a chance of rain in central and
eastern areas early next week, but confidence is low given the high
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, although patches of low stratus/fog are noted on the
latest nighttime microphysics satellite imagery with low potential
for MVFR impacts at KGUP this morning. Gusty southwest winds will
prevail at KTCC and KLVS this afternoon. Areas of low stratus/fog
may develop early Thursday morning across southeast NM and impact
KROW, but probabilities too low to include in TAF at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. A warming/drying trend is in play through
Thursday, with temperatures trending above normal most areas. An
upper low will approach from over SoCal Friday, drawing moisture
north into NM and resulting in a round of wetting storms along/east
of the central mountain chain. Dry and breezy conditions will
prevail Friday afternoon across western NM as the stronger winds
aloft associated with the approaching upper low pivot over the area.
The upper low will move over Saturday, bringing breezy/windy and
cooler conditions with chances for wetting storms across eastern NM
and possibly the northern mountains. Lower forecast confidence
beyond Sunday due to differences among the 00Z medium range model
solutions, but a backdoor front may bring chances for wetting storms
back Tue/Wed of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  44  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  72  37  78  38 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  74  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  77  38  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  79  37  83  42 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  78  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  80  51  82  55 /   0   0   5   5
Datil...........................  78  44  80  48 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  79  42  82  43 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  83  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  67  38  72  40 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  74  53  78  53 /   0   0   5  10
Pecos...........................  74  47  79  52 /   0   0   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  69  43  75  46 /   0   0   5   5
Red River.......................  61  40  66  42 /   0   0   5   5
Angel Fire......................  67  31  72  30 /   0   0   5   5
Taos............................  74  39  78  43 /   0   0   5   5
Mora............................  74  42  78  45 /   0   0   5   5
Espanola........................  80  48  84  46 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe........................  75  51  79  54 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  78  47  83  49 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  58  85  61 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  56  87  57 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  51  88  55 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  55  86  57 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  86  52  89  52 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  83  54  87  55 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  84  50  88  52 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  83  52  87  56 /   0   0   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  85  51  88  54 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  80  55  85  56 /   0   0   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  88  57  91  58 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  51  79  53 /   0   0   5  10
Tijeras.........................  78  50  82  55 /   0   0   5  10
Edgewood........................  79  48  83  49 /   0   0   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  43  85  45 /   0   0   5  10
Clines Corners..................  77  48  81  51 /   0   0   5   5
Mountainair.....................  79  50  83  52 /   0   0   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  80  50  84  53 /   0   0   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  84  59  87  60 /   0   0  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  76  54  80  56 /   0   0  10   5
Capulin.........................  77  48  80  51 /   0   0   5   5
Raton...........................  81  44  83  47 /   0   0   5   5
Springer........................  83  44  86  46 /   0   0   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  77  45  82  49 /   0   0   5   5
Clayton.........................  85  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  80  51  84  54 /   0   0   5   5
Conchas.........................  89  54  92  59 /   0   0   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  87  54  89  57 /   0   0   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  90  57  93  62 /   0   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  90  63  93  65 /   0   0   5   0
Portales........................  92  63  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  90  58  92  62 /   0   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  95  66  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  89  59  91  60 /   0   0   5   0
Elk.............................  86  56  89  57 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11