Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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550 FXUS63 KABR 051123 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 623 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will increase out of the west-northwest during the day Wednesday and Thursday. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected with the strongest winds over central SD Wednesday. On Thursday, 35 to 40 mph gusts are expected with the strongest over northeastern SD. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 As of 3 AM CDT, some high clouds are moving into central SD. These will continue to spread east through the day. Temperatures are in the low 50s with winds out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Some light showers are possible during the mid to late morning hours, mainly south of Hwy 12. Measurable precipitation is not expected. Highs today will be in the 70s, right around average. The big thing today is going to be winds. Model soundings are showing winds at the top of the mixing layer (about 700 mb) of 40 kts or more. CAA and steep lapse rates will help mix these winds down to the surface resulting in gusts of 40 to 50 mph with the strongest winds in central SD and on the northern side of the Prairie Coteau. Winds are expected to diminish after sunset, and gust up to 40 mph Thursday afternoon (slightly higher over the northern portion of the Prairie Coteau). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 00Z Friday the pressure gradient will really start to weaken from southwest to northeast across the forecast area. We`ll lose those 20kt winds or greater than have been just above the surface since this morning. We`ll hold on to those higher winds just above the surface until after 06Z for areas near and northeast of Sisseton. Northwesterly flow will continue at 500mb through at least Saturday night as the low over the Upper Great Lakes at 00Z Friday shifts only slightly east to the Lower Great Lakes by 12Z Sunday. At the same time the ridge over the Great Basin will generally remain over the region. High pressure at the surface, centered over eastern KS/western MO at 00Z Friday will keep a ridge extended up through our forecast area through the overnight hours. There is some uncertainty on specifics for Friday afternoon and evening with smaller waves moving through the northwesterly flow aloft both to our north and south with a weak surface low over eastern MT being suppressed to the southeast, but just how quickly. This could have significant differences in temperatures and even precipitation chances for Friday afternoon. Stay tuned. At this point it looks like increased cloud cover will be the main result. Our mainly dry forecast looks to hold through Monday, but we`ll continue to monitor the potential for Friday night into this weekend as the training 500mb trough nears as the main low sinks across the Lower Great Lakes. Overall, temperatures through the extended remain in a 10 degree range with the potential for increased cloud cover starting Friday through Monday night, and lighter winds than today and tomorrow. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Strong winds will be the main concern during the daytime hours today, gusting out of the west to northwest 35-45kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the period. Low level wind shear will be possible 02-10Z Thursday at ATY as the surface winds relax slightly. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003- 004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-036-037-051. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KF