554
FXUS63 KABR 041512 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1012 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30 to 60% chance of showers and sub-severe
thunderstorms today, highest over eastern South Dakota and western
Minnesota during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Most
locations will receive less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation.

- Winds will increase out of the west-northwest during the day
Wednesday, with gusts of 40 to near 50 mph. The strongest winds are
expected over central SD and the northern portions of the Prairie
Coteau of Marshall County.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The forecast remains on track this morning with the cold front
already east of the James Valley and showers filling in behind it.
No major changes are planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

As of 3 AM CDT, showers and thunderstorms are working their way east
into western MN. Temperatures around the region are in the mid 60s
to low 70s with winds generally out of the south to southwest. Winds
will turn to be west-northwesterly following the cold front.

A cold front moves across the region today bringing some chances for
showers/storms. Showers will start west river in the mid-morning and
move east, exiting SD by early afternoon. Storms are expected to
stay sub-severe. With the showers, chances of more than a tenth of
an inch in 12 hours max out at around 60% along the ND/SD border and
around 30% along and southeast of a line from Watertown to Pierre.
Chances for more than a quarter of an inch max out around 30% along
the ND/SD border and decrease to the south. Amounts could be more in
thunderstorms. Some light showers are possible mainly south of Hwy
12 Wednesday morning.

Today, with the cold front some stronger winds are expected mainly
west river with gusts of 30+ mph possible. Wednesday will have some
good mixing during the afternoon with CAA moving into the region.
This will result in some wind gusts in excess of 45 mph in north
central SD, other areas could see gusts over 40+ mph. RH values
Wednesday afternoon will drop below 30% for areas west of the James
River. However, recent rain and fuel greenup will keep fires from
spreading very far. Temperatures today and Wednesday will be cooler
due to clouds, the cold front, and CAA. Highs will reach into the
low to mid 70s today, slightly higher Wednesday, in the mid to
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

To start out the long term period at 00Z Thursday we`ll have the
surface high over northern Manitoba/Ontario and an elongated ridge
of high pressure set up from off the coast of WA/British Columbia
through MT and far southwestern SD. At 500mb we have the low to our
north across central Canada and a dominant ridge of high pressure
set up from the 4-corners region through much the Pacific Northwest
and southwestern Canada.

A period of stronger winds will remain Wednesday night into
Thursday, particularly with the stronger mixing during the afternoon
hours. Model data indicates mixing up to 750-700mb Thursday
afternoon, highest over central SD with the tighter pressure
gradient between the low to our northeast and ridge to our
southwest. Relative humidity values Thursday afternoon drop 20-25%
west of the Missouri River, and 25-30% east. Fortunately, the recent
rainfall and greenup of fuels will help limit some of the fire
weather concerns Thursday afternoon given the winds gusting out of
the northwest 25-35kts in the afternoon.

The ridge of high pressure will slowly edge east across the forecast
area Thursday night through at least Friday, keeping our dry weather
conditons in place and result in diminishing winds. There is still
some uncertainty with the strength and how far east the western 500mb
ridge will be able to make it as the Canadian low dives into the
northeastern U.S. for early next week. Still, 20-40% chances for
mainly showers and limited thunderstorms looks reasonable for Monday
into Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected to continue over the next
24 hours. There is some concern that ATY could fall into the MVFR
category from 18-21Z today due to incoming showers and potential
thunderstorms. Given the lower potential for thunderstorms, VCSH
has only been mentioned in this set of TAFs.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF