445
FXAK68 PAFC 141322
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 AM AKDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday
through Sunday)...

The upper level pattern has now shifted to put a weak upper level
ridge over Southwest mainland Alaska and the weak upper level
trough over Southeast Alaska. That leaves Southcentral in
northeasterly flow aloft as well as warmer temperatures due to
the ridge. However, there will not be enough subsidence to
prevent afternoon and evening convection which will be the main
weather focus today and through the weekend.

At the surface, a trough along the north Gulf coast is increasing
the northerly gap winds with Seward and Whittier already seeing
gusty winds. The northerly winds in Seward will also push their
temperature near, if not above, 70 degrees as the trough will
override their typical daily sea breeze.

There should be plenty of sunshine at times throughout the day,
though clouds from overnight thunderstorms in the interior are
moving across the Copper River Basin early this morning and other
parts of Southcentral will see them pass through for a few ours.
This should not be enough to keep the temperatures from warming up
to the highest of the summer so far for much of Southcentral. In
fact, this should be a noticeably warmer weekend than the
previous ones this summer have been. That warmth, along with the
cooler air aloft, will also be a key factor in the development of
showers and thunderstorms today through the weekend. The most
unstable air is aloft today and it is expected that most of the
showers and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains today
with the western Copper River Basin and eastern Susitna Valley the
most favored locations for development. For Saturday and Sunday,
there will be more widespread showers and thunderstorms with a
better chance for the thunderstorms to make it over Anchorage and
the Kenai Peninsula as well.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

High pressure is set up over Southwest Alaska, producing drier
conditions and gradually warming temperatures. There is the potential
for convective activity Saturday and Sunday afternoon, which has
may produce some wet thunderstorms. Primary area for thunderstorms
will be along the Western Alaska Range but may extend into
portions of the lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay. There is
some mild uncertainty regarding the extent of this round of
thunderstorms, namely how strong offshore flow will warm the area
and advect the cells downstream off the foothills of the Western
Alaska Range. Areas of patchy fog and/or low stratus are possible
this morning across portions of Bristol Bay.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Monday through Thursday...

A very active pattern on the Alaska Weather map as an upper level
Arctic low spreads its influence across the North Slope into
Interior Alaska through Thursday. A ridge remains across the
Southern Interior, being squeezed between the Arctic low and a
broad low stretching across the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska
through the period. This ridge is sufficient enough to support
thermal surface troughs and raises the chances for convective
activity. A number of weak perturbations are expected to slide
through the pattern across the Southern portions of the state
throughout the forecast.

Most of the concentrated weather remains in the North Pacific to
the South of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Showers and
locally breezy conditions begin in the Central and Eastern
Aleutians and the Bering up to the Pribilofs beginning Monday.
Winds taper off late Monday. Showers will occur across the
Southcentral Interior for late Monday. The Aleutians front
continues its Eastward push over the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak
Island before spreading more rain over Southcentral, Prince
William Sound and the Copper River Valley through midweek. Showers
linger behind the front over the Aleutians and Bering.
Temperatures range from the 40s across the Aleutians warming
across the Mainland into the 70s and possible low 80s over the
Eastern Interior through the period. Thunderstorms are possible
over most of the Eastern inland areas.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds persist through midday
today. Isolated rain showers moving southward will lower ceiling
heights in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a less than
10% chance of an isolated thunderstorm late this afternoon/early
this evening. The chance of afternoon and evening rain showers and
a 10% chance of an isolated evening thunderstorm exists for
tomorrow. VFR to MVFR conditions in the late afternoon to late
evening hours are likely tomorrow.

&&

$$