341
FXAK69 PAFG 112244
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 PM AKDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A building area of high pressure over the region today through the
weekend will result in generally warmer and drier conditions for
most areas. This also means that fire weather concerns will be on
the increase as well through the weekend. Low pressure moving into
the Gulf of Alaska as well as the Bering will start to bring
somewhat cooler and unsettled conditions to much of the region
starting early next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Mainly clear skies will help temperatures warm back to near
  normal this afternoon and above normal for the weekend.

- Interior high temps well into the 70`s the next few days with
  some spots reaching 80 by Sunday.

- Blustery north winds continue across the northern Interior through
  Saturday.

- Slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the
  Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country today and tomorrow.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Warming and drying trend through the weekend with highs away
  from the coast in the low to mid 70s by Friday and near 80 by
  Sunday.

- Northwest winds increasing today with blustery conditions at
  times through the weekend across Northwest Alaska.

- Chances for precipitation increasing Monday and continuing
  through much of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures moderate through the weekend and above normal
  temperatures expected Sunday into early next week. Highs will be
  in the 60s on the coast, up to around 80 near Umiat with 70s
  across the Arctic Plain through at least the middle of next
  week.

- West winds 20 to 25 mph persist across the eastern Arctic coast
  today then shift to the east and weaken through the weekend.

- Cooler and wetter conditions return to the Brooks Range and
  Arctic Slope Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Increasing southwest winds along the northwest Arctic coastline
  become established early next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will continue to build in over much of the state
over the next 24 to 48 hours as upper troughing stays in place
over the Bering Sea. This will continue to allow for mainly clear
skies across the northern half of Alaska with the exception of the
Arctic coast and portions of the North Slope where low stratus
and fog will remain in place through Saturday. As of early this
Friday afternoon satellite is indicating some cumulus buildups
over the Alaska Range and over portions of the Fortymile Country.
These areas will continue to have a chance at a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again
Saturday afternoon as some moisture wraps back into those areas as
a low departs eastward into western Canada.

Meanwhile most areas will see generally drier and noticeably
warmer conditions prevailing through the weekend with Sunday
being the warmest day of the stretch. Afterwards models continue
to be in general sync with a weak upper trough undercutting the
ridge and tracking from the southern Bering to the eastern Arctic
Coast Monday into Tuesday. This will temporarily bring a band of
moisture inland along the west coast and provide increasing rain
chances for the coastal and western Interior areas as well. In
addition some scattered rain and thunder could occur elsewhere
throughout the Interior and across the Brooks Range. Beyond this,
models remain at odds as to how much ridging returns to the
region, but the general idea is that warmer temps will return for
the balance of the week as scattered storm chances remain (see
extended forecast discussion for more details).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure continues to develop over the Interior. A warming and
drying trend will occur through this weekend. Temperatures will warm
into the 70s and lower 80s with Sunday being the hottest.
Humidities will fall into 20s and 30s. Fortunately light winds will
occur under this ridge. The exception will be the Upper Kobuk
Valleys where gusty westerly winds will occur Saturday. Those should
remain below red flag warning levels based on the latest guidance.
Low level instability will gradually increase the next several days.
This afternoon we will see isolated thunderstorms develop over the
mountains of the Fortymile Country and Alaska Range. Saturday
isolated storms will also be possible across southwest Alaska. With
the increasing instability isolated storms will also be possible
over the White Mountains and Brooks Range on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydro concerns at this time as recent
rises along rivers and streams throughout the Interior have
peaked following localized heavier rainfall earlier this week.
These rivers and streams are forecast to slowly fall over the
next couple of days.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Warmer and drier conditions falter Monday and Tuesday for the West
Coast and Western Interior, but mostly remain for the Eastern and
Central Interior. A 1000mb low moves into the high Arctic Monday and
helps undercut the ridge in the Interior bringing showery conditions
to the West Coast and parts of the Western Interior. The weakened
ridge will allow for additional convection across the Interior with
some showers and isolated thunderstorms expected, especially along
elevated areas. After Tuesday the ridge in the Interior builds back
and another low in the Bering tries to move into the pattern.
Confidence is low with this low as models have wildly different
solutions for it with a great deal of spread for the overall
pattern. The European ensemble favors the ridge building back strong
Wednesday which will keep that low from pushing into the Interior
allowing for more widespread warmer and drier conditions. The
Canadian ensemble now favors a stronger, more northerly solution for
that low which would set up a large area of southwest flow over the
state causing significant rainfall deep into the Interior. The GFS
ensemble has both the ridge and low being stronger which forces much
of that low further south keeping things warm in the north and east
and wetter in the southwest.

Confidence is quite low for which solution will ultimately verify,
but more solutions are favoring a stronger ridge for much of the
rest of the week which would keep most of the Interior warm and
mainly dry with some scattered convection possible.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Laney/Maier(Fire Weather)/Stokes(Extended)