106
FXAK69 PAFG 311108
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 AM AKDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer returns for the Interior for a few days as temps warm back
into the 70s and chances for thunderstorms will be possible each
day, although favoring higher elevations over the Interior. Cooler
weather will grace the West Coast with near gale force north
winds, with the chance for snow over the Brooks Range and Arctic
Coast beginning Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Weak high pressure aloft persists over the N Mainland and Arctic
Coast with heights around 555 dam. There is a weak area of remnant
shear vorticity over the Alaska Range and West Coast. There is a
deepening low moving into the Gulf of AK with a developing arctic
trough over the higher arctic. There is a 518 dam low over the
Aleutians and Bering Sea. At the surface, there is a weak 1013 mb
surface trough stretching across the Interior. In the Gulf of AK,
that low is now 989 mb and has reached gale force.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in much better agreement with the overall
synoptic pattern than they had been the last few days. The most
uncertainty revolved around an arctic trough dropping south into
the N Slope, and what would happen thereafter. Models are now in
agreement that the arctic trough eventually shifts west and then
digs south along the Bering Strait and West Coast. Eventually this
opens the door to more incursions of easterly waves Sunday and
beyond, which means it will get wet over the Interior, along with
cooler temps and more clouds next week.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Temps are warming back up the next few days with readings into the
70s across most lower elevation valleys. Temps peak Sat with
values into the mid 70s. Chances for thunderstorms today will be
possible across most of the Interior, but favoring the higher
elevation hills with lower chances in valleys. Saturday is even
drier with the likelihood that thunderstorms stay over the higher
terrain as weak high pressure aloft keeps the steering winds
light. Best chances for thunder will be from the White Mtns
northward.

On Sunday, there is increasing likelihood for another easterly
wave to bring more heavy showers along with thunderstorm chances.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Afternoon isolated to scattered rain showers are possible again
today, although rainfall amounts will be less. A few thunderstorms
are once again possible over the N Interior from Huslia northward.
This same general pattern will be in place Sat with most showers
over the Interior and down to the Delta. North winds are really
ramping up Sat along the coast and will reach to near gale force
down the Bering Strait into Monday, keeping the coast dry and
blustery.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus and fog are moving back in along the arctic coast, and is
pushing south to the slopes of the Brooks Range along the Dalton
Highway corridor. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible along the crest of the Brooks Range the next couple days,
otherwise the main story will be an arctic front diving south
Sunday into Monday, which will bring increasing chances for snow
showers as snow levels drop to sea level over parts of the NW
Arctic. Snow levels won`t drop as far over the Brooks Range
passes, but it will likely be down to 2500-3500 feet Sat night
into Sun night with accumulating snowfall possible. N winds will
rip through Point Hope gusting well into gale force range by late
Sat.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Next week the pattern will be dominated by arctic troughing out
west and a Gulf of Alaska low which will be supporting general
easterly flow from the Yukon into the Interior. This means there
will be several chances for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms
pretty much all week, if the current global model progs remain
consistent.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to widely scattered wet thunderstorms today will
generally favor the White Mtns into the S Yukon Flats, which is
where the best axis of instability is, with general isolated wet
thunder across most of the remainder of the Interior, from
Fairbanks north. Today is also warming and drying in valleys. Sat
is the warmest and driest day RH rise, with near red flag
conditions as northeast winds to 10 mph will be likely across the
Interior, along with temps around 75 and min RH around 20-25
percent. Isolated wet thunder looks fairly spotty Sat with ridging
aloft supporting mostly higher terrain thunder north of Fairbanks
and over the Fortymile. Sunday, an easterly wave brings more
chances for heavier showers with continued isolated wet thunder
chances.

Out west, drying trend with general afternoon showers and isolated
wet thunderstorms over the Interior the next couple days. Strong
north winds and cooler temps will blast down along the coast from
Sat through Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant
snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week,
snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine
and the interrelated sloughs.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher