Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
502 FXAK67 PAJK 121352 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 552 AM AKDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SHORT TERM...The remnants of a decaying low will depart through the day on Wednesday, leaving behind a few lingering showers, but otherwise drier weather. Higher chances of rain may return on Thursday for the northern or central panhandle as an easterly wave attempts to traverse the Coast Mountains, potentially bringing with it convective activity. Satellite and radar imagery indicate an elongated band of cloud cover with a few scattered showers moving across the panhandle as of the time of writing. These are the remains of a shortwave trough - and will continue to wither through the day on Wednesday, though not before bringing some chances of a few rain showers to SE AK. Anticipate some clearing of the cloud deck through the day as the shortwave fully disintegrates, and many areas will see significant breaks in the clouds. Some mid and upper level clouds will eventually filter in from the S - orbiting around the periphery of a broad occluded low (540 decameters at 500 mb) located in the W Gulf as of the time of writing, but am not expecting precipitation from them. Thursday will see some chances of rain showers. These will be largely focused around the southern panhandle as a weak band of precipitation from the occluded low attempts to work its way N. A more significant event could potentially occur late Thursday into Friday, when an easterly wave attempts to move across the Coast Mountains from British Columbia into the panhandle. Model- progged convective parameters look less than impressive - with between 50-70 J/KG of CAPE for the central panhandle, but the potential for significant breaks in the cloud decks ahead of time enabling diurnal heating mean that some convective activity is possible with this wave. Winds will strengthen to around 15 kt for many of the inner channels through Wednesday, with the potential for stronger winds in Lynn Canal, ocean entrances, and the outer coastal waters, before weakening during the overnight hours. Temperatures will climb into the 50s and 60s. Some changes were made to wind directions, and winds were strengthened in a few land-based locations, but otherwise no major changes were made to the forecast. .LONG TERM...For the end of the week, we expect to have a low continuing to meander around the BC coast and southern panhandle that should bring some showers to parts of the panhandle. This could also bring some thunderstorms to the border and areas around the border for the weekend. As this low slowly moves out of the area, high pressure will remain off to the west allowing for NW flow across the gulf. Temperatures across the panhandle are also expected to respond to the mild weather with some increasing warmer temperatures as well. This will make things feel more like summer instead of feeling like spring. For the extended into next week, conditions are expected to be more likely warmer and drier for most of the panhandle according to the Climate Prediction Center. Big changes to the long term forecast today are a continued decrease in winds across the area as well as the introduction of a few possible thunderstorms during the day on Saturday. && .AVIATION...Generally good flying weather to continue for the panhandle through Wednesday with ceilings ranging from 2000 to 7000 ft. Overall should see more breaks in the clouds through the day as a ridge moves over the panhandle. This should also limit shower development during the day though daytime heating could still lead to some thermal convective activity. Low level winds will remain light and onshore through the day before shifting to be more southerly heading into Thursday. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....SF AVIATION...STJ Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau