Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
717 FXAK67 PAJK 072213 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 213 PM AKDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SHORT TERM...High pressure ridge over the AK Panhandle producing sunny skies and warm temperatures for most areas. Satellite shows a developing gale force low in the far western AK Gulf tracking northward. While this low center tracks well to the west and weak occluded frontal boundary does move over the panhandle Saturday afternoon into the evening from S to N. At most this will produce some light isolated showers and increased cloud cover. Before that front moves in temps over SE AK will once again be warmer than normal with highs reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s. Overlands winds generally light with thermal gradient producing afternoon sea breezes. Models again in good agreement so little if any forecast changes made. .LONG TERM.../Sunday into next week/...Looking ahead at Sunday is when the panhandle will be under a transition period. We`ll be going from a sunny-and-warm weather pattern to a cloudy-with-rain weather pattern. Sunday has some potential to reach the 60s and 70s again, but it will all be dependent on how quickly the next front moves east. Pre- frontal showers may dot the landscape ahead of the approaching front. This may lead to breaks in the clouds and some spotty areas with above-normal afternoon temps in the 60s to near 70. But these will be random in nature and difficult to pin down since they will be so micro-climate sourced. So overall, if the front ends up being slower than expected, then greater amounts of sunshine will linger and temps will be warmer than the current forecast. But the current timing has clouds moving in Saturday night with those showers and the rain moving into the panhandle Sunday into Monday. Mainly light, non- impactful, rain is expected out of this front. Beyond Monday, the wet weather pattern looks to continue well into next week. Inner channel wind speeds were increased for Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage and Icy Strait for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. These increases were based on forecasted pressure gradients and historical data. Some evidence of 20-30 knot winds are possible but for now, mainly increased speeds to 15 to 20 knots and will review the latest model data tomorrow. && .AVIATION.../ Through Saturday / High pressure ridge over the area resulting in clear and drier weather through tonight and into Saturday. A weakening front slows over the southeast gulf and may spread in mid to high level clouds to the southwest panhandle Saturday and Saturday afternoon. Any precipitation should be limited until the afternoon time frame and have a minor visibility impact. Overnight radiational fog development is possible however with a solid day of drying is not anticipated. && .MARINE...The developing low will keep well to the west of the area but it does increase winds over the offshore waters and eastern gulf to gale and small craft respectfully. Seas also build to 10 to 14 ft from the associated SW swell. Northerly inner channel winds near 10 to 15 kt from pressure gradient tonight but as of now not expected to go any higher. As the low moves to the NW gulf and inner channel winds diminish and seas subside. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...PRB LONG TERM....GJS AVIATION...Bezenek MARINE...PRB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau