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FXAK67 PAJK 021231
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
431 AM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Sunday night / Weather front rotating
north over the eastern half of the Gulf of Alaska and the Southern
Panhandle about old parent low over the northwestern portion of
the gulf. The front is spreading rain into the southern half of
the panhandle, and the easterly flow because of the positioning
is holding much of the PoP chances for the northern third portion
the chance level or less. The best winds with the front will be
off shore the outer coast and coastal area north to near Cross
Sound and into the inner channels like Clarence Strait, Southern
Chatham Strait, and Sumner Strait.

The front will be weakening through the day as it moves into the
central panhandle, so am not expecting the chances of rain to
increase too much over the northern third of the panhandle, and
Lynn Canal may keep the northerly wind of 5 to 15 into tonight.


.LONG TERM.../ Monday through Saturday/ Little changes to the long
term outlook which remains active for the next week as a broad upper
trough remains in place over a majority of the state. Upper level
low pressure will also be a semi permanent feature in the gulf,
leading to periods of wet weather and occasionally stronger systems.
Due this active pattern, model uncertainty on timing and intensity
begins to deviate more beyond mid week, leading to lower forecaster
confidence for that timeframe.

One bright spot will be right at the start of the mid range
forecast period as Monday looks to be a decent break for the
panhandle between systems alluded to in the short range
discussion. Mid level drying will inhibit shower development with
more breaks in cloud cover during the day and overall lighter
winds for the inner channels.

The primary system of note is set to impact SE Alaska has the
potential to be more impactful due to it incorporating the
remnants of a former tropical system (Tropical Storm Ewiniar). A
strong jet will propel this system towards Haida Gwaii Monday
before it begins to recurve northward and northwestward on
Tuesday. Unlike the Sunday storm, this one will likely bring
moderate rain to a majority of the panhandle as it transits the
gulf, with the heaviest rain still expected for the southern
panhandle. The storm itself is expected to have substantial
embedded moisture, while a significant plume of moisture will be
primarily aimed further south toward the Pacific Northwest and
British Columbia. Models have come into further agreement that
this system will begin to weaken before it makes its turn north
and west into the central gulf. However, this system still has
the potential to produce frequent high wind gusts of 45 kt or
more for Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait and southern Prince
of Wales Island as it approaches and makes its turn northward.
Once again the overall track of this feature and how healthy the
storm is will play a major role into how the wind field sets up
along the inside passage. At minimum, small craft conditions with
winds of 25+ kt can be expected to follow NE of the feature along
the outer coast Tuesday and potentially into Wednesday, with
modest increases in winds in the inside waters as well with
highest winds currently expected near Dixon Entrance.

As mentioned above, the forecast beyond Tuesday`s system is active
but not as clear in terms of timing of significant features due to
increasing divergence in model solutions. Overall expect continued
unsettled weather with slightly cooler temperatures and continuing
chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION...New front moving in from the gulf with deteriorating
conditions over the Southern Panhandle. CIG and VIS dropping down
to MVFR conditions with some isolated IFR. Winds increasing with
some turbulence and LLWS. Northern panhandle mostly VFR for next
24 hours with lighter winds. Improving conditions expected into
Sunday night for the south as front shears apart.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...PRB

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