041
FXAK67 PAJK 151257
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
457 AM AKDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SHORT TERM...The easterly wave which brought showers to the
northern and central panhandle on Friday has shifted further north
through Saturday morning. High pressure offshore in the Gulf combined
with relative clearing overnight has allowed some marine layer
clouds to develop along outer coastal communities. As temperatures
continue to rise through the day, convection is expected to
develop in the far northern inner channels with the potential for
isolated thunderstorms, especially closer to the Canadian border.
With the expected rising temperatures today and Saturday with
highs approaching 70 degrees, and SPS has been issued to address
rising river and stream levels resulting from rainfall and
snowmelt.

Winds on the inside waters continue to remain relatively non
impactful with only a few areas reporting around 15 kt sustained
as of this discussion. Overall looking at winds to pick up to
around 15 kt in N Lynn Canal by Saturday afternoon before
diminishing into the overnight period. With the expected
convective shower activity, erratic winds with stronger gusts than
forecast remain possible so be sure to stay tuned for any forecast
updates through the afternoon and evening hours.

.LONG TERM...Forecast remains on track for the long range as high
pressure aloft rotates around the state and western Canada. Thunderstorms
will continue to form in Canada Sunday into Monday, which could
move over the Coast Mountains into the Panhandle. For mariners
operating in the far interior inner channels keep an eye on the
sky and watch for erratic winds. Without considering thunderstorm
potential, conditions are partly cloudy and largely dry across the
Panhandle with temperatures slightly above their seasonal normal
for locations outside the marine layer influence. Northwest flow
along the coast will bring 15 to 20 knot winds and elevated
afternoon sea breezes in the inner channels as well. Looking
upstream fire activity across the Yukon and BC territories remain
minimal but if any existing fires experience rapid growth over
the next 24 hours patterns aloft will steer some elevated smoke
into the region. By late Wednesday a shortwave trough will begin
to influence the weather across the Panhandle, with onshore flow
returning, increasing PoPs through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Rather quiet morning for aviation weather today.
Conditions are VFR in most areas. The exceptions are along the
outer coast where low level marine layer clouds have developed
overnight with ceilings down to 1700 feet seen at Sitka, and in
some isolated inner channel locations where some patchy fog has
starting to develop this morning. Conditions are expected to stay
rather quiet through tonight as VFR conditions and lower winds
prevail. Low marine layer clouds will still likely plague the
outer coast with MVFR ceilings at times though. There also is the
possibility of some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two near
the Coast Mountains along the Canadian Border this afternoon and
evening as storms form in Canada and try to cross the mountains.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...EAL

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