094
FXUS61 KAKQ 201725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
125 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast slowly shifts south
through the end of the week. A seasonably warm and dry pattern
will continue through Friday, before an extended period of hot
weather commences this weekend and continues into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Seasonably warm temperatures are expected today.

~1030mb sfc high pressure is centered well offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic coast early this morning with a 598dm upper high from
nrn MD to NJ. It`s actually quite comfortable now with temps
mostly in the 60s, although it will get very hot in a few days.
The ridge axis at the sfc and aloft will continue to gradually
shift south today and tonight and will be over srn VA and NC by
late tonight. The flow will still be onshore (SE) today leading
to temps only a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
Forecast highs are in the lower 90s inland with 80s near the
immediate coast. Temps should drop off into the 60s tonight with
the ridge axis still nearby.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Turning warmer and a little more humid for Friday.

- Turning hot on Saturday.

Very little change to the forecast for Fri/Sat. Still expecting the
heat to begin building on Friday as the sfc and upper ridge axis
shift just to our south, leading to the warmer 850mb temps currently
over the Ohio Valley to move over the mid-Atlantic. Winds become
more southerly across inland areas on Friday, while remaining SSE
near the immediate coast. Forecast highs are in the mid 90s in
central VA with upper 80s-lower 90s closer to the coast and in NE
NC. Dew points will be a little bit higher on Fri (mid 60s) but max
heat indices should remain a few degrees below 100F.

By Saturday, temperatures will really start to heat up and dew pts
will be on the rise as well as the ridge axis becomes suppressed
well to our S (from the Deep South to off the SC/GA coast). As a
result, the low-level flow will become SSW area-wide. MAV/MET/NBM
guidance continues to support widespread mid to upper 90s west of
the bay with a chance of 100F readings across central VA. When
factoring in dew pts in the mid 60s inland to around 70F near the
coast, this gives heat index values in the 100-105F range and WBGT
values of 85-87F. Although the current forecast heat indices are
just short of Heat Advisory criteria (105F+), it will still set the
stage for a hot weekend overall and a heat wave that lasts through
next week. No rain is expected through the short term period either.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat index values of 105F or greater on Sunday.

- A weakening frontal system may bring isolated to widely scattered
showers or storms on Sunday night into Tuesday, but the confidence
in widespread rainfall remains low.

- Flash Drought conditions developing.

The main story on Sunday will be the heat as the ridge axis remains
suppressed well to our south and the south-southwesterly LLVL flow
persists. This which will lead to even warmer 850mb temps/low-level
thicknesses. Sunday still looks to be the hottest day of the period
with forecast highs around 100F across central VA with mid-upper 90s
near the coast. While the recent dry weather will help to keep dew
pts a bit lower than they could be (mid 60s-lower 70s), heat index
values of 105F+ are likely on Sunday with max WBGT readings in the
upper 80s. These conditions will likely warrant a Heat Advisory for
most if not all of the area on Sunday. Other than a chance for
isolated to widely scattered tstms Sun evening-Sun night, the dry wx
will continue through the rest of the weekend.

Monday most likely will be a few degrees "cooler" than the weekend
due to the potential for scattered tstms (mainly during the latter
part of the day) and more clouds as a weakening frontal system
approaches. Nevertheless, widespread mid 90s are likely and heat
indices may still touch advisory criteria (especially SE) as dew
points will increase a bit more ahead of the approaching weak front.
Still seasonably hot with lower precip chances on Tuesday as the
weakening front washes out near/over the area.

Regardless of any tstm chances in the forecast, it still does not
look promising for widespread rainfall, as many places will see
little to no rain through the period. In fact, the latest 01z NBM
probabilities for at least 0.50" of total rainfall from Sun-Tue are
still only 10-40% over the local area. This will only exacerbate the
recent dry conditions and set us up for what can be considered a
"flash drought". More information on this can be found on CPC`s
Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or
drought.gov.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours and likely
beyond. Similar to the past few days, the SCT CU across the
region will continue through the afternoon before diminishing by
sunset. Mostly S-SE winds at 5 to 10 kt today become S-SW on
Friday.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday
as high pressure remains centered off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions expected through the rest of the week.

- Elevated southerly winds forecast to develop later Saturday
through early Monday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed
for at least some of this period.

- Moderate rip current risk at all areas beaches today and Friday.
At least a moderate risk continues through the weekend.

High pressure remains offshore early this morning, leading to a
continuation of the generally light S-SE flow. Again expecting winds
to increase some later this afternoon and evening as sea breezes
become established. Remaining sub-SCA, however, with max winds
nearing 15 kt in the lower bay. Winds of ~10 expected elsewhere
through tonight. Very similar conditions Friday and Saturday with S-
SE winds continuing. S winds increase to ~15 kt in the Chesapeake
Bay and 15-20 kt in the coastal waters Saturday evening/night. The
strongest winds of the period are still expected later Sunday and
Sunday night as low pressure slides well N of the area and a weak
cold front approaches from the W. Peak winds are expected after
sunrise Sunday and in the 15-20 kt range in the bay/rivers/sound and
20-25 kt range on the ocean. With frequent gusts of 20-30 kt
expected, small craft advisories look like a good bet for most of
the marine area (lower confidence in the upper rivers and Currituck
Sound). Winds remain elevated through early Monday, before subsiding
by the afternoon and evening. The direction turns northwesterly
behind the front Monday night-Tuesday. Regarding tstm chances, a low
chance is expected later Sunday, with a slightly better chance
Monday with the front.

Seas are 3-4 ft S and 2-3 ft N this morning and waves 1 ft or less,
expect 1-2 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas average around 3 ft for
Friday and Saturday. With the increased southerly flow Sat night-
early Mon, seas are forecast to eventually build to 4-6 ft N and 3-4
ft S. Waves also increase to 2-3 ft Sun/Sun night.

Rip currents: Rip current risk is moderate at all beaches today with
SE swell energy and ~3 ft nearshore waves (could approach 3-4 ft at
times across the NC OBX this aftn). With periods around 8 sec, the
threat could near the "high" category from VB and points S as the
early morning high tide recedes in the late morning. However, will
continue the prevailing moderate and allow the day shift to adjust
up if needed based on cams and beach reports. An elevated rip risk
likely continues through the upcoming weekend (highest threat
shifting to nrn beaches Sat and Sun with the south wind direction).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/JDM
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...SW