153
FXUS61 KAKQ 241755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
155 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop across the area today into this
evening. A surface trough will affect the region Saturday into
Saturday evening. A warm front followed by a cold front will
affect the area late Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 AM EDT Friday...

Mid-morning sfc analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary
extending from the Midwest states eastward into the nrn Mid-
Atlantic. Weak lee troughing is also noted E of the Appalachians.
Aloft, shortwave energy is sliding eastward through the area.
Currently noting two areas of rather widespread rain/convection.
The first is across SW portions of the FA, with embedded areas
of heavy rain and thunder slowly progressing E. The second is
over NE NC, which currently has more lightning activity where
slightly higher instability is present. Radar shows a slow N/NE
progression w/ northward moving outflow. CAMs are handling both
of these areas poorly but current thinking is highest PoPs
should focus over NE NC and srn VA through most of this morning.

A weak cold front will drop across the area today into this
evening, producing more isolated to sctd showers or tstms from
later this morning into this evening. However, coverage and
intensity will depend on the degree of aftn destabilization in
the wake of the ongoing (morning) convection. More clouds
today will result in not as warm temps across the area. Highs
today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Pcpn will end by
late this evening, with a mostly clear to mostly cloudy sky
expected tonight into early Sat morning. Lows tonight in the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

A sfc trough with some shortwave energy will push into the
region for Sat aftn/evening, resulting in 20-50% PoPs. Highs on
Sat will be in the lower to mid 80s. Pcpn will taper off or end
later Sat evening. Lows Sat night in the lower to mid 60s. A
warm front will affect the area later Sun through Sun night.
Partly to mostly sunny, warm and humid on Sun with highs in the
mid to upper 80s most locations (upper 70s to lower 80s near/at
the coast). Slight to small chance for aftn/evening showers or
storms. Then, PoPs will increase a bit more from the WNW late
Sun night into early Mon morning, as a cold front starts to push
ewrd toward the mtns. Lows Sun night mainly in the lower to mid
60s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Friday...

00z/24 EPS/GEFS depict an anomalous trough digging from the
Great Lakes into the NE Mon into Thu with a cold front pushing
through the Mid Atlc Mon night. Confidence on timing remains on
the low-side, but given the strength of the trough more coverage
of showers/tstms are possible in the Memorial Day/Mon night
timeframe. Highs Memorial Day will range through the 80s.
Lingering frontal boundary or troughiness will result in slight
or small chance for showers or a tstm Tue and Wed, even though
slightly drier air will be filtering into the region. Much drier
air then expected for Wed night through Thu, as high pressure
starts to build in from the NW. Highs will be in the lower to
mid 80s Tue, in the mid 70s to lower 80s Wed, and in the lower
to mid 70s Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Friday...

Scattered showers and storms are possible at all terminals
through this evening. Outside of storms, prevailing VFR is
expected. Localized VSBY reductions to MVFR or IFR are possible
in any storms due to heavy rain. Isolated, strong/gusty winds
are also possible. Otherwise, light and variable winds are
expected this aftn into tonight. There is good agreement in most
guidance that fog will develop late tonight given light winds
and high sfc moisture levels. The fog could be locally dense at
times and lead to IFR-LIFR restrictions. Due to uncertainty
regarding timing and low stratus, will not go too low with the
VSBY but will explicitly indicate IFR at all sites (except
RIC). Expect improvement after 12/13z Sat.

Outlook: Widely scattered showers/storms continue through the
weekend. A better chance for storms arrives Monday. Outside of
storms, expecting mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through Sunday.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially in the afternoons
  and evening) each afternoon through Memorial Day.

A weak cold front washes out later this morning as it drops into
the area. More widespread showers and storms are crossing over
northern NC this morning in association with some shortwave
energy crossing to our south. Showers and storms will likely
push across the lower Bay and out coastal waters south of Cape
Charles before sunrise before weakening. High-Res CAMs are
showing chances for additional showers and storms this
afternoon. Marine interests should be monitoring the potential
for these storms after 2pm this afternoon, with potential W-NW
t-storm outflow crossing the waters later this afternoon and
evening.

Otherwise, high pressure just offshore will push farther
offshore into the upcoming weekend. This should result in a
stretch of rather quiet/benign marine weather conditions late
today through the upcoming weekend. Expect winds of 5-15kt
outside of any storms through Sunday. Seas ~2 ft over the
ocean/waves 1-2 ft in the bay. Afternoons will likely be
dominated by sea breeze circulations each day, allowing winds to
become onshore during those times, with south to southeast
winds returning in the later afternoon and evening/late night
hours. There will also be the chance for scattered afternoon
and evening showers and storms each day through Monday.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have
continued with winds of 10 to 15 kt over the Bay, 15 to 20 kt
over the open ocean on Monday, still below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. Winds veer around to the NW behind the front on
Tuesday into midweek. Some more widespread showers and storms
will be possible on Memorial Day Monday ahead of the approaching
cold front. E-SE swell behind that system that could bring some
5 foot seas by Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as
winds turn back offshore Tue-Wed.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches today and tomorrow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SW/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...JDM/TMG
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM/MRD