Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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468 FXUS61 KAKQ 040735 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues through Thursday with daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday bringing drier conditions for late in the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Fog develops overnight. A few light showers will continue to be possible across far S VA and NE NC over the next few hours. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies continue into the morning with lows in the mid-upper 60s. Model guidance continues to show the potential for fog to develop inland tonight into early Tue morning. Fog may be locally dense. Additionally, some of the guidance shows the potential for marine fog off the MD coast to reach at least into the vicinity of Ocean City w/ light onshore flow, though confidence in this scenario is low. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Scattered storms are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with locally heavy rainfall possible. High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic coastline on Tuesday, which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to push inland. Scattered showers/storms are possible mainly along this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with a slight drop in T/Td. The 12z/03 HREF depicts the best coverage across s-central VA and interior NE NC, and then into the Piedmont, with some sea-breeze activity over the interior MD Eastern Shore. A chance of showers and a few tstms (20-30% PoPs) continues across SW/W portions of the FA Tuesday night as some instability linger overnight. Upper ridging briefly builds over the area Tuesday night-early Wednesday before moving just to our E by late Wednesday. Meanwhile, a rather potent upper trough/low dives SE into the Great Lakes at the same time. Shortwave energy ahead of this trough will cross the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night, providing enough forcing for scattered tstms to form during the afternoon and evening (highest PoPs west of I-95). Showers and tstms move E Wednesday night. A few tstms may be strong with strong winds the main threat. Additionally, WPC has the W 2/3rds of the FA under a marginal ERO for excessive rainfall both Tuesday and Wednesday given slow storm motions. As such, localized ponding on roadways and urban areas is possible. Highs in the mid-upper 80s Tue and Wed with lows in the mid to upper 60s Tue night and upper 60s to lower 70s Wed night. A chc of aftn/early evening showers/tstms lingers into Thursday with the highest PoPs shifting toward the coast. Forecast highs are mainly in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Mainly dry, outside of a isolated afternoon showers. - Temperatures trend slightly below normal for the weekend, but remaining pleasant. Sfc cold front will cross the area Thursday night into Friday. A few lingering showers or storms are possible Thursday night, especially across southeastern portions of the area. Aloft, upper low will drop SE from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, with a larger trough situating over most of the eastern CONUS. While the area looks generally dry, there could be isolated showers and storms, especially in the afternoon Fri and Sat, with various shortwaves rotating just N of the area. Temperatures Friday will still be on the warm side, in the lower 80s W to the mid-upper 80s E. Dew points drop off into the 50s for Saturday, bringing generally pleasant conditions (outside of a brief shower, as mentioned above). Dew points recover some later Sunday and expect isolated to scattered showers/storms areawide (20-30% PoP) with afternoon high temps in the low-mid 80s. Similar wx for next Monday. Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday... A few light showers will continue to be possible across far S VA and NE NC over the next few hours. However, these showers will likely remain away from the local terminals. Otherwise, SCT skies due to a combination of stratus and cirrus will continue into the morning with primarily VFR CIGs. Model guidance continues to show the potential for fog to develop inland tonight into early Tue morning with IFR/MVFR VIS possible. RIC has the best chance for IFR VIS (~1-2 SM), however, fog will also be possible at ORF/PHF/SBY. Additionally, some model guidance suggests that the fog will be accompanied by IFR/LIFR CIGs. This aspect is less certain so have refrained from introducing IFR CIGs in the tafs at this time. The fog lifts by ~12z Tue with a return to VFR conditions under partly sunny skies. CU develop by late morning into the afternoon with mainly 4000-6000 ft CIGs (lower with areas of convection). By the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and may impact any of the local terminals. Heavy rain with IFR VIS and gusty winds will be possible in any storms. Storms taper off by the evening with additional showers or storms possible overnight Tue night. Winds were light and variable/calm tonight. Expect winds to remain light on Tue, becoming E 4-8 kt by late morning into the afternoon as a weak backdoor cold front pushes inland. Winds return to light and variable Tue night. Additional afternoon/evening showers/storms are possible Wednesday and Thursday (with Wednesday likely seeing the highest coverage of storms). Mainly dry/VFR Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday... Key messages: - Sub-SCA conditions through Wednesday, though becoming breezy late in the day. - Marginal SCA conditions possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday ahead of a cold front. - Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms through Thursday, primarily in the afternoons and evenings. High pressure is centered well offshore this morning. Winds are light with most obs showing winds out of the west and around 5kt. Later this morning, a weak backdoor cold front will drop across the region, turning winds to the east by the afternoon. Winds slightly increase closer to ~10kt through the evening. Onshore flow continues overnight at 5-10kt, taking on more of a southerly component by Wed morning. On Wednesday, the pressure gradient gradually increases between high pressure offshore and an approaching cold front. Southerly winds will gradually increase through the day as a result. Winds will be up to 10-15kt by the afternoon, then 15-20kt late in the evening. SCAs will likely be needed late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning with gusts over 20kt expected in the bay and gusts approaching 25kt over coastal waters. SSW winds diminish Thursday and gradually turn to the west through Friday. Early morning buoy obs indicate seas of 1-2ft and waves 1ft or less. Given light winds, this will remain the case through the day today. Waves in the bay and lower James increase to ~2ft as winds increase Wed. As winds continue to increase Wednesday night, seas build to 3- 4ft and waves to 2-3ft. Seas fall back to 2-3ft by Thurs afternoon and waves down to 1-2ft. Rip current risk is low for all area beaches today and Wednesday. The risk for northern beaches (Assateague to Ocean City) increases to moderate for Thursday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 335 AM EDT Monday... Some shallow / nuisance coastal flooding is possible during the higher high tide cycles Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning and again Thursday, mostly for the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. Most tidal sites may see very shallow flooding near the waterfront, but locations in the northern Bay, such as Bishops Head, could touch minor flood stage as south winds increase late Wednesday and Thursday. The following high tide cycle Wednesday night/early Thursday morning may bring similar impacts as well. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM SHORT TERM...AJZ/RMM LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...