701
FXUS61 KAKQ 131121
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
721 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered off the coast today, bringing a
warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front pushes through
Friday night with a chance for a few showers and storms. Dry
with seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by a hot
and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Key message:

- Warming trend begins today, but still seasonable with moderate
  humidity levels.

The latest WX analysis shows the upper low lifting NE across
Atlantic Canada, with zonal flow over the OH Valley and mid-
Atlantic in its wake. To the south, there remains another upper
level trough across the deep south/ eastern Gulf of Mexico, with
an associated sfc trough from north FL extending out off the
GA/SC coast. Locally, a broad area of sfc high pressure is
centered off the mid Atlantic coast. Dew pts are little higher
than the past few mornings, but still only in the low-mid 60s
for most.

Variably cloudy skies prevail this morning with a partly cloudy
sky with SCT-BKN cu for the aftn. The southern stream upper
trough will push to the SE coast this aftn, allowing the sfc
trough to become more organized off the SE coast this aftn into
tonight. Remaining dry into tonight over the AKQ CWA, with
temperatures this aftn warming a few more degrees compared to
Wed, highs generally ranging from the low- mid 80s along the
coast to the upper 80s well inland. By tonight, the coastal
system looks to get pushed NE to a position off the Carolina
coast. Mostly clear tonight, except for the potential for some
increasing clouds over the far SE zones on the edge of the sfc
low offshore overnight. Seasonably warm with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot Friday with moderate humidity levels, a chance for storms
  Friday evening/night.

- Dry weather and cooler temperatures (seasonable) return for
  Saturday.

On Friday, the upper level ridge slowly pushes east across the
southern plains and into the lower MS Valley. Meanwhile,
shortwave energy dives SE from the Great Lakes towards the mid
Atlantic, which should keep the coastal low system just far
enough offshore to keep most of our area dry Fri morning (have
added a slight chc PoP to coastal NE NC for a few stray
showers). The forecast for Friday remains on track, though a tad
cooler across SE zones with onshore flow. Deep mixing and 850
mb temperatures rising to 18-20C continue to support high in
the low-mid 90s well inland across central VA/metro RIC, with
upper 80s to around 90F closer to the coast. Dew points continue
to be fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s, which will act
to mitigate the heat index from being much warmer than the
actual air temp. Near the coast, dew points will be a little
higher, but given the offshore system, SE winds will keep actual
air temperatures held at or below 90F. Heat Advisories are not
anticipated with peak heat indices in the mid- upper 90s.

A cold front drops SE across the local area Friday evening into
Friday night with at least a chance for showers/storms possible
(highest across N/NE portions of the FA). Will also have to
watch the potential for a stronger storm or two potentially
slipping into far northeastern portions of the area, with the
latest day 2 SPC outlook having the slight risk well to our NE,
but the marginal just clipping NE zones of the FA. (primarily a
wind threat). Lows on Friday night will range from the 60s to
near 70F (warmest SE).

The upper level trough moves offshore Saturday with the center
of > 1020mb sfc high pressure moving from the Great Lakes to New
England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic later in the weekend.
Overall, it will be a pleasant start to the weekend with dew
pts falling back into the 50s N to lower 60s S with highs in
the low- mid 80s along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland.
Lows sat night will be near to a little below avg with high
pressure over the region, ranging from the low to mid 60s for
most, with some upper 50s over rural interior sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and seasonable for Sunday.

- Hot and mainly dry weather returns next week, likely
  persisting through the week.

Highs on Sunday will be similar to Sat or perhaps a degree or
two warmer, as the sfc high becomes centered offshore. Highs will
range from the upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s closer to
the coast (upper 70s Atlantic coast of the eastern shore).

The models continue to depict the upper level ridge building
across the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS next week. The 00Z/13 ECMWF
remains the strongest and most persistent with the ridge with
the highest H5 heights (around 598 dm with the core just N of
the local area by midweek). The 00Z/13 GFS is not as intense,
(H5 heights ~594dm) but shows a similar placement through
midweek. The ensemble means are also in good agreement so
confidence is high at seeing an extended period of hot and
mainly dry weather. The core of the heat will be slightly to our
N through midweek which will keep some degree of low level
onshore flow intact. Highs should be into the low-mid 90s well
inland (perhaps some upper 90s Tue-Wed), but will tend to stay
in the upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast). The
continental origin of the ridge may mitigate heat indices to
some extent (at least through the midweek timeframe). The
current forecast has heat indices through midweek not too far
above air temperatures, generally in the upper 90s to around
100F inland and in the low-mid 90s closer to the coast Tue-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions across area terminals early this morning to
prevail through the 12Z TAF period. SCT-BKN clouds at 5-6 k ft
have developed over the area and will persist through the day.
SSW winds will average 5-10 kt inland, with E-SE winds around
10 kt or a little higher close to the coast. Partly cloudy to
mostly clear with light southerly winds tonight. Have added some
clouds to NE NC early Fri morning w/ low pressure not too far
offshore.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail through Friday with mainly
dry weather. A cold front crosses the area Friday evening into
Friday night with a low chance for a few evening showers or
storms (best chance NE of KRIC to KSBY). Winds shift around to
the N-NE Saturday morning and will likely be a bit elevated
along the coast into the aftn (gusting to around 20 kt) as high
pressure builds in from the N. After that, winds will average 10
kt or less with VFR conditions and mostly clear skies into
early next week as high pressure gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible this afternoon
  in the lower James River and especially along the western
  shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

- A cold front drops south through the waters early Saturday
  with SCA conditions likely for the bay, lower James, and
  Currituck Sound.

1018mb high pressure has moved offshore early this morning,
resulting in southerly flow 5-10 kt over the local waters. Waves are
around 1 foot with seas 1-2 ft.

Weak synoptic flow will allow sea breeze forcing to augment
SE/onshore flow this afternoon. Winds increase to around 15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt, especially along the western shore of the Ches Bay
and potentially into the lower James River as well. Some of the hi-
res guidance shows winds increasing to around 20 kt late this
afternoon in these areas but confidence in seeing widespread winds
above SCA thresholds for more than a few hours is low so will hold
off on headlines for now. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt during the late
evening and overnight hours. The pressure gradient tightens on
Friday ahead of an approaching cold front but winds are expected to
stay in the 10-15 kt range in the pre-frontal southerly flow. Low
pressure off the Carolina coast looks to stay far enough SE to
limit local influence but any NW nudge in the track of this low
will bring the potential for increased winds/seas for the
southern coastal waters Friday afternoon. The front moves across
the waters late Friday night into Saturday morning with winds
becoming N and increasing to 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt. A
period of SCA headlines will likely accompany the frontal
passage into the first half of Saturday for the Ches Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound. Confidence in seeing sustained
SCA conditions offshore is lower given the 25+kt wind
thresholds for the ocean waters. Waves in the bay will average
1-2 ft through the period with 2-3 ft possible during periods of
stronger flow this afternoon/evening and with the frontal
passage early Saturday. Seas will average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft
likely during the stronger surge early Saturday. Offshore winds
will tend to limit seas and recent guidance has backed off on
the potential for 5 ft seas on Saturday. Quiet marine conditions
return Saturday evening and are likely to persist well into
next week with strong high pressure aloft lingering over the
region.

Low rip current risk continues for all beaches today but will have
to watch the northern beaches as seas increase late this afternoon.
By Friday, a tightening pressure gradient will help to increase near-
shore wave height and longer period swells for the northern beaches
where a moderate rip risk is likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not expected Friday, but are listed below for
reference as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...