128
FXUS61 KAKQ 272311
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
711 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region later this evening into tonight.
Showers and storms will be ending later this evening. Lower
humidity will prevail for the rest of the week, though there
will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Dry conditions are expected Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 700 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Tornado Watch has been cancelled along and W of the I-95
  corridor, remains in effect to the east.

Lingering storms across Hampton Roads and NE NC, with little
coverage elsewhere. There is another area of scattered tstms
across MD and northern VA that may affect NE sections of the FA
after ~9pm before moving offshore after midnight. For now, in
collaboration w/ SPC and neighboring offices, the TOR Watch has
been cancelled over the western 1/2 of the CWA (including all
of metro RIC), and given trends expect the remaining portions to
be cancelled well before the 11 PM end time.

Have lowered PoPs to 20% or less outside of the TOR Watch, and
trended PoPs down along the coast after 10-11pm. Partly cloudy
to mostly clear overnight with lows from the upper 50s over the
far NW, to the upper 60s across the SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Quieter Tuesday, with scattered showers and isolated storms across
the north Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- Cooler and more comfortable Thursday.

Much quieter Tuesday, with a lingering shower or storm across
the far SE. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm,
especially across far northern portions of the area Tuesday
afternoon as a shortwave passes north of the area. Highs will
range from the lower to mid 80s to upper 80s under a mostly
sunny sky. Upper troughing situates over the eastern CONUS for
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On Wednesday, a potent
shortwave will dive SE and move of the area. This is expected to
bring an increase in cloud cover and more widespread
rain chances (compared to Tuesday) mainly N and E of the I-64
corridor. Cooler temps aloft will allow for the development of
some modest CAPE in the afternoon, so cannot rule out a few
thunderstorms (and potentially a stronger storm) as well. Highs
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Cooler Wednesday night
with lows in the 50s for most of the area, and near 60/lower 60s
for the far SE. Cooler and more comfortable on Thursday with
temperatures generally in the 70s and dewpoints only in the
upper 40s to lower 50s under a mostly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Cooler and more comfortable to end the week.

Another shortwave within the larger longwave trough pivots toward
the area later Thursday night into Friday. However, drier air
will work against any rain chances. Still could see increases
in cloud cover in the afternoon during peak heating. However,
with the drier air and lower heights aloft, temps will trend
back into the 70s with dew points in the 40s and 50s. Thus, it
will feel much more comfortable. High pressure builds down from
the Great Lakes to end the week and start the weekend favoring a
continuation of the dry and comfortable weather. High temps
should begin to inch up some, as ridging begins to build across
the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows through the extended will be
in the 50s to near 60 at the immediate coast. A few upper 40s
are possible Thursday and Friday night across the far NW. Dry
conditions continue into the weekend, but cannot rule out a
stray shower or storm, especially Sunday, as high pressure
begins to shift offshore. Temperatures this weekend likely
return closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing at SBY and ECG to start
off the TAF period, bringing periods of sub-VFR CIGs and VSBYs.
Showers and storms may also try to clip ORF ~18-19z, but less
certainty here. Otherwise, generally VFR CIGs elsewhere outside
of some local MVFR CIGs at RIC. Another round of showers and
storms will develop around or shortly after 21z, bringing
another potential for sub-VFR CIGs and VSBYs at all sites
(highest confidence ORF and ECG). A few of these storms may be
strong to severe with strong wind gusts being the primary
threat. Shower/storm chances come to an end from NW to SE later
this evening (lingering the longest at ECG), with all sites
drying out after 03z as a cold front crosses the region. Cannot
rule out some patchy fog or ground fog at the typical locations
(PHF and ECG) from ~05z to 09z, but overall confidence is low.
VFR/dry conditions return later tonight through Tuesday
afternoon.

Outlook: VFR/mainly dry conditions expected through Thursday. However,
SBY may receive a shower or storm Wednesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Shower and storm activity expected across the waters later this
afternoon and evening, with strong wind gusts possible. Outside of
storms, breezy conditions expected with a short-fused SCA in effect
for the bay through this evening.

- Moderate rip current risk today across northern beaches.

Winds are southerly 10-20 kt this afternoon in response to a slowly
approaching cold front from the west (highest over the Chesapeake
Bay). Seas are 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft. These winds continue through
at least this evening, so have opted to raise a short-fused SCA for
the bay through 23z/7 PM. While a few gusts to 25 kt are possible
over the ocean (outside of storms), thinking is this event is
marginal enough to hold off on SCAs there. These winds should also
push seas across the N to 3-4 ft, with perhaps some 5 ft waves
briefly this evening. Convective showers and thunderstorms are also
expected over the waters this afternoon into this evening. Any
elevated winds of this nature will be handled with special marine
warnings as necessary. The front crosses the area late tonight/early
Tuesday, turning winds to the W or NW. Winds again shift to the S
for Tue aftn, but will only be 5-10 kt, as the front meanders near
or over the area. A second, reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air
could bring another period of stronger NW winds late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Winds could briefly approach SCA criteria
during this period, but largely looks sub-SCA at this time. Could
briefly see another brief surge early Friday. Otherwise, high
pressure builds toward the region to end the week and start the
weekend, favoring lighter winds. After tonight, seas generally
remain 2-3 ft through the period.

Moderate Rip Risk for northern beaches continues today with building
seas and more of a shore normal component to wave energy. A low risk
is currently forecast for all beaches tomorrow (Tuesday), but will
need to watch the northern beaches again if any southerly winds
develop.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...SW