428
FXUS61 KALY 231046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
646 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today and bring slightly
cooler and less humid conditions along with a few showers and
thunderstorms mainly focused across areas south and east of
Albany. Sunny, dry and pleasant weather is expected on Friday. A
few showers are possible over the weekend with more widespread
rainfall expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 645 AM EDT, area of rain and thunderstorms is
approaching from the south and west. Precipitation should begin
to expand across areas mainly south and east of Albany around
8am and continue through the remainder of the morning. Higher
confidence in location and timing of this complex resulted in an
increase in POPs in some areas with some categorical pops now
for the mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County CT. Also
increased the lightning probs to likely given latest radar
trends. A slight northward shift in the precipitation shield has
led to a slight increase in POPs for areas farther north as
well. There remains a window for some possible stronger to
severe storms for locations south and east of Albany.

Previous Discussion:
The cold front will cross the region through the day today with
the front positioned just to the south and east of the Capital
Region by the late morning hours. Ahead of this front, some weak
instability (up to 750 J/kg) and 30 kt of 0-6km shear may be
present through the morning. CAMs suggest the best
precipitation chances will be during the morning and early
afternoon hours as a batch of rain and embedded thunder,
currently located across western PA, crosses areas mainly south
and east of Albany aided by passing upper- level energy. Forcing
and additional precipitation chances wane during the afternoon
hours as the front crosses. How unstable the environment gets
this morning will determine whether any storms could become
strong or possibly severe. Latest trends suggest the potential
for severe storms across far southeastern areas is low, but will
continue to monitor trends. The Storm Prediction Center has
maintained a marginal risk for severe weather for far
southeastern areas. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather is expected as
slightly cooler and less humid air moves in behind the front
with any morning clouds gradually giving way to more sunshine in
the afternoon. Any isolated rain chances would likely occur
during the first few hours of the morning as the front crosses.
Highs will be mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure builds into the region tonight with mostly clear
and dry weather expected. Lows will dip back into the 50s for
most areas with some upper 40s across the Adirondacks. There may
be enough of a dewpoint depression spread to limit fog potential
to just localized areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure overhead will bring sunny and pleasant weather on
Friday with lower humidity levels. Highs will top out in the
lower 70s to lower 80s across most areas which is still about 5
to 10 degrees above average. Dry conditions continue Friday
night with lows dipping back into the mid-40s to mid-50s.

The high will begin to depart to the north and east on Saturday
as a disturbance approaches from the south and west. We may be
positioned between two separate upper-level shortwaves with one
tracking to our south and another to our north and west. Still,
some lift along and ahead of a passing surface warm front could
bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly late in the day Saturday into Saturday night. Forcing
weakens across the region on Sunday as weak ridging building in.
However, a few isolated showers will remain possible during the
day. Highs both days will range from the mid-70s to mid-80s
with lows Saturday night in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short wave ridging should keep dry conditions in place through
Sunday evening. Will then mention low probs for showers
overnight as a lead upper level disturbance approaches from the
south/west. On Monday, a large upper level low and deepening
surface cyclone will start to affect the region as it pushes
eastward across the central Great Lakes. A surface frontal
system ahead of the cyclone will move into our region, with
showers/thunderstorms becoming likely Mon afternoon into the
evening. It is unclear how much instability can develop,
depending if our area can get into a warm sector. With model
discrepancies in timing/track, it is possible the warm sector
may not make it this far north with more of an occluded boundary
moving through. Much too early for specific details, but this
could result in some potentially stronger storms given
sufficient instability and also locally heavy rainfall with PWAT
anomalies forecast to increase to +1 to +2 STDEV.

On Tuesday the surface front should be east of the region,
although there are some guidance with slower timing. The main
core of the upper low is forecast to track into SE Canada, while
a broad upper level trough builds in across the Great Lakes and
Northeast Tue through Wed. Depending on timing of short waves
rotating through the mean trough, additional scattered to
numerous showers are expected. Will mention slight chance of
thunder during the diurnally favored times of afternoon to early
evening, but overall instability looks limited at this time.
Temperatures will cool down closer to normal levels by mid week
as well with the trough settling in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z Friday...Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA with mainly
MVFR conditions (brief IFR) possible around KPOU this morning
associated with a cold front passage. Some lighter showers may
affect KALB/KPSF, but the heavier SHRA/TSRA should remain south
of these sites. VFR conditions will prevail after the cold front
passage with gradual clearing through the rest of the
afternoon.

Clear skies for tonight with drier advecting in. Patchy fog
formation is possible if sufficient decoupling/cooling occurs,
but confidence is low so will omit mention for now.

Winds will initially be south-southwest around 5 kt or less,
then shift to the west and increase to 5-10 kt after the cold
front passage this morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV