334
FXUS61 KALY 110535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
135 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slowly departing upper level low will continue to allow for
mostly cloudy skies and spotty showers through tomorrow, with
temperatures cooler than normal. Drier and warmer weather will
arrive towards the middle of the week as the slow moving storm
system finally departs. Late in the week, above normal warmth
will return to the region ahead of a front that could bring some
showers and thunderstorms for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Made a few minor changes with this update, mainly to
increase cloud cover further across most of the area and raise
low temps by a degree or two. Only area with appreciable
clearing is across parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield
Counties. Moisture is trapped beneath a low level inversion,
keeping mostly cloudy skies in place across much of the area
tonight.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1027]...Cloudy and cool conditions continue
this evening as our upper level closed low persists over the
Northeast. Main forecast changes for this evening update were to
increase cloud coverage overnight and adjust temperatures
upwards a few degrees in response to the clouds (lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s). Latest GOES16 IR and VIS imagery shows a
widespread blanket of stratocu over much of eastern NY and
western New England thanks to moisture trapped underneath the
low subsidence inversion. Forecast soundings indicate this
subsidence inversion will continue overnight and with northwest
flow maintaining a moisture fetch off the lakes tonight,
expecting stratocu to persist overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Our region will continue to be under the influence of an upper
level trough on Tuesday. While the main upper level low will be
lifting out, another weak disturbance that rotates into the
Northeast will also become closed off. Moisture is lacking, but
a few spotty sprinkles or showers can`t be totally ruled out
during the afternoon hours thanks to low heights in place and
cyclonic flow aloft. Most areas should stay dry, though. Temps
will still be a little on the cool side (although maybe not
quite as cool as Monday) with valley highs in the low to middle
70s. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with some
diurnal clouds. Some clearing is expected on Tuesday night,
which should allow for another cool night. Lows will be in the
40s and 50s once again.

The weak disturbance over the Northeast will be moving away by
Wednesday. A brief shower still can`t be totally ruled out over
southern VT on Wednesday in the afternoon hours, but most of the
shower activity on Wednesday will be east or northeast of the
region. With the rising heights and warming temps aloft, highs
will be closer to normal on Wednesday, with max temps well into
the 70s to near 80. Dewpoints still look fairly comfortable in
the 50s. Sky cover should be partly sunny for the entire region
on Wednesday.

Dry weather is expected into Wednesday night. However, temps
won`t be as cool as the past few nights, with mainly mid to
upper 50s for lows (still some upper 40s to low 50s in the
highest terrain). Skies should be fairly clear on Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure situated south of the area will be allowing for
dry weather for Thursday. The flow aloft will be fairly zonal,
although the low to mid level flow will be out of the southwest,
so there will be some warming temps aloft. As a result, highs on
Thursday look noticeably warmer than the past few days, with
highs well into the 80s and dewpoints getting into the low 60s
in valley areas.

The next disturbance will be impacting the region for Thursday
night into Friday. The timing is still a little uncertain, but a
round of showers and thunderstorms looks to impact the region at
some point between Thursday night and Friday. There still are
some questions regarding how much instability will be in place,
which will likely depend on the exact timing of the system
approaching from the west. Some downpours may accompany some of
the heaviest showers/storms. If enough instability is in place,
some gusty winds could be possible too. Otherwise, it looks mild
and muggy on Thursday night with lows in the 60s and temps back
into the 80s ahead of the front on Friday.

Behind the front, somewhat cooler, drier and less humid weather
is expected for the weekend. With high pressure in control, it
looks rain-free with a mostly clear sky both days. Temps look to
be in the 70s on Saturday, with upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday.

Some models are suggesting a warming trend for next week as a
large ridge tries to establish itself along the eastern
seaboard. As a result, the week looks to start off warm and
muggy, but mainly rain-free. For now, will go with temps close
to the model blend on Monday with highs well into the 80s across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
with the exception of KPSF where MVFR ceilings remain. Infrared
satellite indicates clearing over KPOU and some pockets of
clearing near KALB that have lead to a persistence of VFR
conditions. Latest HiRes guidance indicates some decreasing
moisture in the lower levels which is thought to keep ceilings
within VFR height thresholds through the remainder of the
overnight period, again except at KPSF who could be locked in at
MVFR throughout much of the day. Some breaks in cloud coverage
are possible throughout the day today, but conditions will
generally remain cloudy with the continued influence of an
upper-level trough. A stray shower or two could cross into the
terminals later this afternoon, but due to the anticipated
scattered nature of precipitation, left this possibility out of
the TAFs until confidence increases in later updates.

Winds throughout the period will be light and primarily
northwesterly at sustained speeds of 2-5 kt. KALB and KPSF
currently have higher speeds out of the northwest (9-11 kt),
which should continue to decrease throughout the morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant