Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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247 FXUS61 KALY 110508 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 108 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slowly departing upper level low will continue to allow for mostly cloudy skies and spotty showers through tomorrow, with temperatures cooler than normal. Drier and warmer weather will arrive towards the middle of the week as the slow moving storm system finally departs. Late in the week, above normal warmth will return to the region ahead of a front that could bring some showers and thunderstorms for Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...Made a few minor changes with this update, mainly to increase cloud cover further across most of the area and raise low temps by a degree or two. Only area with appreciable clearing is across parts of Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. Moisture is trapped beneath a low level inversion, keeping mostly cloudy skies in place across much of the area tonight. .PREV DISCUSSION[1027]...Cloudy and cool conditions continue this evening as our upper level closed low persists over the Northeast. Main forecast changes for this evening update were to increase cloud coverage overnight and adjust temperatures upwards a few degrees in response to the clouds (lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s). Latest GOES16 IR and VIS imagery shows a widespread blanket of stratocu over much of eastern NY and western New England thanks to moisture trapped underneath the low subsidence inversion. Forecast soundings indicate this subsidence inversion will continue overnight and with northwest flow maintaining a moisture fetch off the lakes tonight, expecting stratocu to persist overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Our region will continue to be under the influence of an upper level trough on Tuesday. While the main upper level low will be lifting out, another weak disturbance that rotates into the Northeast will also become closed off. Moisture is lacking, but a few spotty sprinkles or showers can`t be totally ruled out during the afternoon hours thanks to low heights in place and cyclonic flow aloft. Most areas should stay dry, though. Temps will still be a little on the cool side (although maybe not quite as cool as Monday) with valley highs in the low to middle 70s. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with some diurnal clouds. Some clearing is expected on Tuesday night, which should allow for another cool night. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s once again. The weak disturbance over the Northeast will be moving away by Wednesday. A brief shower still can`t be totally ruled out over southern VT on Wednesday in the afternoon hours, but most of the shower activity on Wednesday will be east or northeast of the region. With the rising heights and warming temps aloft, highs will be closer to normal on Wednesday, with max temps well into the 70s to near 80. Dewpoints still look fairly comfortable in the 50s. Sky cover should be partly sunny for the entire region on Wednesday. Dry weather is expected into Wednesday night. However, temps won`t be as cool as the past few nights, with mainly mid to upper 50s for lows (still some upper 40s to low 50s in the highest terrain). Skies should be fairly clear on Wed night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure situated south of the area will be allowing for dry weather for Thursday. The flow aloft will be fairly zonal, although the low to mid level flow will be out of the southwest, so there will be some warming temps aloft. As a result, highs on Thursday look noticeably warmer than the past few days, with highs well into the 80s and dewpoints getting into the low 60s in valley areas. The next disturbance will be impacting the region for Thursday night into Friday. The timing is still a little uncertain, but a round of showers and thunderstorms looks to impact the region at some point between Thursday night and Friday. There still are some questions regarding how much instability will be in place, which will likely depend on the exact timing of the system approaching from the west. Some downpours may accompany some of the heaviest showers/storms. If enough instability is in place, some gusty winds could be possible too. Otherwise, it looks mild and muggy on Thursday night with lows in the 60s and temps back into the 80s ahead of the front on Friday. Behind the front, somewhat cooler, drier and less humid weather is expected for the weekend. With high pressure in control, it looks rain-free with a mostly clear sky both days. Temps look to be in the 70s on Saturday, with upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday. Some models are suggesting a warming trend for next week as a large ridge tries to establish itself along the eastern seaboard. As a result, the week looks to start off warm and muggy, but mainly rain-free. For now, will go with temps close to the model blend on Monday with highs well into the 80s across the region. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR ceilings are now expected to persist at PSF and ALB through at least 12 UTC given moisture remaining trapped underneath the subsidence inversion. While GFL still features low end VFR ceilings at the start of the TAF period, introduced a TEMPO group from 00 - 03 UTC as ceilings should lower in response to the reduced boundary layer mixing. Once MVFR ceilings develop, forecast soundings support MVFR ceilings through the overnight so we now show MVFR cigs through 14-15 UTC at GFL, PSF and ALB. By or shortly after 14-15 UTC, cigs should finally improve to low end VFR with OVC skies giving way to BKN or even briefly SCT by 18 - 21 UTC. POU should remain VFR through the end of the TAF period. Breezy westerly winds through 02 UTC sustained around 10-12kts with gusts up to 15-20kts. Then, westerly winds weaken to be around 5kts through the TAF period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV/Speciale SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Speciale