Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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023 FXUS61 KALY 090537 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 137 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will increase tonight as another upper shortwave and associated surface low approach from the west. A period of light to moderate rain will push across the region overnight through tomorrow morning, with more scattered showers and below-normal temperatures lingering Sunday afternoon and again on Monday as upper troughing remains overhead. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 1000 PM EDT, latest radar shows some echoes passing across areas north of I-90 with some sprinkles/light showers reaching the ground where there is higher reflectivity. Have updated PoPs slightly to reflect these trends. Clouds will continue to increase from northwest to southeast through the overnight with the steadiest rain beginning across areas north and west of Albany between 4-7am before advancing eastward through Sunday morning. Previous Discussion: A lobe of upper-level vorticity pivoting to the east this afternoon and evening will see diminishing showers through this evening as shortwave ridging builds in tonight. With a locally tight surface pressure gradient in place and deep mixing beneath the upper-level cold pool, gusty west- northwest winds reaching 25-35 mph are expected to continue through this evening. Brief subsidence associated with shortwave ridging will aid in weakening the gradient as winds diminish later this evening and overnight tonight. A second lobe of upper vorticity wrapping about the parent upper trough will see a compact area of surface low pressure track eastward along the PA/NY border and into southern New England. This system will bring a steadier period of rain overnight and into Sunday morning. Temperatures look to remain somewhat mild during ongoing rainfall, reaching overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As the second shortwave exits to the east by Sunday evening, steady rain in the morning will transition to a more showery distribution. Relatively steep lapse rates beneath the upper cold pool may support sufficient instability to see isolated thunderstorms develop through the afternoon, with gusty winds and small hail possible within brief convective storms. Temperatures remain similar to today, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. Showers decrease in coverage through the evening, with rain most likely in the southwestern Adirondacks in closer proximity to enhancement by lake moisture. Overnight temperatures trend slightly cooler beneath clearing skies, reaching lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region. Another upper shortwave trough looks to pivot through the region on Monday, bringing additional chances for scattered showers. Temperatures remain at or below seasonal norms, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. Robust height increases aloft through Monday night as large-scale troughing finally exits eastward will see dry weather return across the region, with lows remaining cool in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Large-scale upper ridging will build over much of the East Coast while a cutoff upper low lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. Largely dry conditions will return to the region, although isolated diurnally-forced showers are possible Tuesday afternoon beneath partly cloudy skies. Temperatures look to remain near normal, reaching highs in the the 60s to mid 70s across the region. Clearing skies overnight will see temperatures fall to lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Upper-level ridging centered to the east of the forecast area with subsequent mid-level southwesterly flow overhead look to persist through the latter half of the week. This pattern may yield temperatures trending well above normal by the end of the workweek, reaching highs in the 70s in high terrain and 80s to near 90 degrees at lower elevations by Friday. Overnight lows will likely trend milder as well, with temperatures only falling into the 50s to mid 60s each of Wednesday through Saturday nights. An upper-level trough approaching late in the week looks to bring the next widespread chances for rain showers to the region as a surface cold front passes over the region Thursday or Friday into next weekend. Given the antecedent airmass in place, thunderstorms remain possible, particularly following peak diurnal heating Friday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions to start the period with mid level clouds in place. However, conditions will deteriorate with widespread rain developing from NW to SE between 09z-12z. Will mention prevailing rain at KALB/KGFL/KPSF, but the steadiest rain may stay just north of KPOU where at TEMPO is mentioned. Flying conditions will lower to MVFR within 1-2 hours of rain onset, with occasional IFR expected for a few hours prior to ending. Rain will end rather quickly by around 15z-17z, with conditions improving to MVFR then VFR during the afternoon. Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA then possible late afternoon into the evening hours as another disturbance moves through. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible, but did not include with this issuance due to low confidence. Winds will initially be south-southwest around 3-8 kt, becoming northwest and increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt during the afternoon. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard/Rathbun NEAR TERM...Picard/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...JPV