Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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520 FXUS61 KALY 081950 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A passing upper-level low will see cloudy skies continue as showers and breezy winds diminish through this evening. Another upper shortwave and associated surface low will bring a period of steadier rain overnight into tomorrow morning, with more scattered showers and below-normal temperatures lingering into Monday as upper troughing remains overhead. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A lobe of upper-level vorticity pivoting to the east this afternoon and evening will see diminishing showers through this evening as shortwave ridging builds in tonight. With a locally tight surface pressure gradient in place and deep mixing beneath the upper-level cold pool, gusty west-northwest winds reaching 25-35 mph are expected to continue through this evening. Brief subsidence associated with shortwave ridging will aid in weakening the gradient as winds diminish later this evening and overnight tonight. A second lobe of upper vorticity wrapping about the parent upper trough will see a compact area of surface low pressure track eastward along the PA/NY border and into southern New England. This system will bring a steadier period of rain overnight and into Sunday morning. Temperatures look to remain somewhat mild during ongoing rainfall, reaching overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As the second shortwave exits to the east by Sunday evening, steady rain in the morning will transition to a more showery distribution. Relatively steep lapse rates beneath the upper cold pool may support sufficient instability to see isolated thunderstorms develop through the afternoon, with gusty winds and small hail possible within brief convective storms. Temperatures remain similar to today, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. Showers decrease in coverage through the evening, with rain most likely in the southwestern Adirondacks in closer proximity to enhancement by lake moisture. Overnight temperatures trend slightly cooler beneath clearing skies, reaching lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region. Another upper shortwave trough looks to pivot through the region on Monday, bringing additional chances for scattered showers. Temperatures remain at or below seasonal norms, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s in high terrain and upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. Robust height increases aloft through Monday night as large-scale troughing finally exits eastward will see dry weather return across the region, with lows remaining cool in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Large-scale upper ridging will build over much of the East Coast while a cutoff upper low lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. Largely dry conditions will return to the region, although isolated diurnally-forced showers are possible Tuesday afternoon beneath partly cloudy skies. Temperatures look to remain near normal, reaching highs in the the 60s to mid 70s across the region. Clearing skies overnight will see temperatures fall to lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Upper-level ridging centered to the east of the forecast area with subsequent mid-level southwesterly flow overhead look to persist through the latter half of the week. This pattern may yield temperatures trending well above normal by the end of the workweek, reaching highs in the 70s in high terrain and 80s to near 90 degrees at lower elevations by Friday. Overnight lows will likely trend milder as well, with temperatures only falling into the 50s to mid 60s each of Wednesday through Saturday nights. An upper-level trough approaching late in the week looks to bring the next widespread chances for rain showers to the region as a surface cold front passes over the region Thursday or Friday into next weekend. Given the antecedent airmass in place, thunderstorms remain possible, particularly following peak diurnal heating Friday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions through at 06 UTC tonight as mid-level stratocumulus this afternoon clears out late this afternoon with just a BKN cirrus deck in its wake through this evening. After 06 UTC, clouds lower with BKN-OVC MVFR ceilings arriving by 08 - 12 UTC as an organized area of steady/moderate rain overspreads the terminals from northwest to southeast. MVFR ceilings arrive at GFL and ALB first by 08 - 09 UTC as initially light rain quickly becomes steady/moderate resulting in MVFR vis by 10 - 12 UTC. MVFR ceilings then push into PSF by 11-12 UTC as light rain transitions to steady rain by 13 UTC resulting in MVFR vis. There may be periods of IFR ceilings Sunday morning, especially at PSF and GFL but not enough confidence to show IFR ceilings at this point. POU remains south of the steadiest rain and therefore low end VFR conditions may prevail through much of the TAF period. Held off on MVFR conditions at this time. Light rain should push over POU by 12 - 16 UTC but still maintaining VFR conditions. Steady rain exits towards the end of the TAF period 15 - 18 UTC with VFR conditions returning. Breezy westerly winds sustained 10-18 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt expected through 00 UTC with the strongest winds expected 19 - 23 UTC as clouds give way to increased sun. Wind speeds decrease this evening, becoming sustained around 5kts by 02-03 UTC. Winds around 5kts continue through tomorrow morning as winds shift to northwest towards the end of the TAF period. Winds shift to the east and even northeast Sunday morning at PSF. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard NEAR TERM...Picard SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Speciale