160
FXUS61 KALY 080546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
146 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will end north of the Greater Capital
Region overnight, as it will be variably cloudy and cool.
It will be breezy and cooler under partly to mostly cloudy skies on
Saturday with some enhanced lake effect and scattered diurnal driven
rain showers mainly north of the Interstate 90. Then, a widespread
area of rain expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning with
additional scattered showers and some storms possible Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 110 AM EDT, scattered showers across portions of
the southern Adirondacks, while generally dry elsewhere. Temps
are mainly in the 50s to around 60.

Another shortwave is tracking east from Lake Ontario, and will
increase shower coverage across southern Adirondacks over the
next few hours, therefore have increasing PoPs in this area
through daybreak. Some showers/sprinkles may expand as far south
and east as the Capital Region and Mohawk Valley, as well as
southern VT/northern Berkshires.

Remaining mainly dry for areas south of I-90, with clear to
partly cloudy skies.

Temperatures should hold steady, or fall slightly into the
lower/mid 50s, although some upper 40s could occur across
portions of the southern Adirondacks, and perhaps any areas
south of I-90 where persistent breaks in the clouds occur.

.Previous Update 1015 pm EDT...H500 closed low over southeast
Ontario and southwest Quebec continues to bring scattered
showers over the Lake George northern Saratoga Region, eastern
Adirondacks and portions of southern VT. These showers should
diminish north of the Capital Region overnight. It will become
variably cloudy and cool, as the skies will clear some south and
west of Albany. We adjusted the PoPs and removed them south of
the Capital Region overnight. Some patchy fog may form in a few
spots, but the variable sky cover and winds from the southwest
to west at 10 mph or less may prevent it.

Lows will be in the lower to mid 50s with mid and upper 40s
over the higher terrain. Some lake enhanced rain showers and a
weak disturbance will increase clouds from west bring some
showers into the western Adirondacks and the western Mohawk
Valley towards 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Breezy westerly
winds expected through much of Saturday behind our cold front
thanks to an area of strong subsidence building in aloft behind
our exiting shortwave and cold pool. While the subsidence will
help reduce diurnally driven showers and storms, breezy and
cooler westerly winds tracking over the mild Lake Ontario waters
(average lake temp around 18C per GLERL) looks to generate some
lake enhanced showers. The CMC typically handles the inland
extent of lake enhanced showers and it suggests showers extend
into the Mohawk Valley, Upper Hudson Valley, and even southern
VT where upslope flow on the windward side of the Greens should
enhance rainfall amounts. Adjusted chance POPs eastward from the
southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley through southern VT mainly
along and north of I-90 to capture this trend with areas south
of I-90 including the mid- Hudson Valley, Litchfield, and most
of Berkshire County. Otherwise, westerly winds will be sustained
8-15kts and gusts up to 25kts with the strongest winds up to
30kts down the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into Berkshire
County thanks to channeled flow. Otherwise, expect partly to
mostly cloudy skies along and north of I-90 thanks to cold air
advection and enhanced lake moisture with partly to mostly sunny
skies further south.

Temperature wise, highs should end up being slightly below
normal thanks to cool air advection and breezy conditions with
highs only in the low to mid 70s north of I-90 with upper 50s
to low 60s in the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks.
Areas south of I-90 should see more sun and will likely end up
warmer reaching into the mid to upper 70s.

Rain showers likely diminish in coverage by late afternoon into
the evening with cloud also giving way to increased late day
sun. Partial clearing in the evening will be followed by
increasing clouds after Midnight as another shortwave from the
Great Lakes begins to swing south and eastward.

Guidance has trended wetter for the second half of Saturday
night into Sunday morning as enhanced cyclonic vorticity
advection ahead of the shortwave in the Great Lakes results in
increased height falls and forcing for ascent. Confidence is
increasing that this will allow a sfc low to develop over Lake
Erie with a strengthening mid-level jet nosing into the
Northeast resulting in enhanced warm air advection and
isentropic lift. The incoming mid-level jet with 850hPa winds
30-40kts should also enhance moisture advection/transport as
PWATs rise back towards 1 inch. All of these factors will
likely result in a growing rainfall shield that expands as it
tracks eastward across west/central NY overnight spreading into
eastern NY by 06 to 12 UTC Sunday. The period of rain continues
through much of Sunday morning as it advances into western New
England with rainfall totals upwards of 0.15 - 0.30 inches for
much of the area. Locally higher amounts up to 0.50" possible
should any instability result in embedded thunderstorms.

Widespread rain exits into New England by midday Sunday with
breaks of sun returning for the afternoon. However, increased
insolation during the afternoon ahead of our next incoming shortwave
trough and associated height falls will likely lead to
additional scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms as
mid-level lapse rates steepen under the next cold pool. While
deep wind shear becomes rather high (40-50kts) thanks to
favorable kinematics, overall instability appears low/meager due
to dew points only in the 50s and a shallow boundary layer/low
equilibrium levels. Thus, most convection should once again be
low-topped. Otherwise, westerly winds remain a bit breezy
through Sunday with temperatures staying seasonably cool only
rising into the low to mid 70s (mid to upper 60s in the hill
towns and higher terrain).

Showers/storms diminish with the loss of daytime heating Sunday
night with overnight lows dropping into the 50s under partly
cloudy skies and ongoing slightly breezy westerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as an upper-
level trough remains overhead. An upper-level shortwave will rotate
around the base of the trough and will aid in the development of
diurnally driven scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during
the midday and afternoon hours on Monday. Activity may be greatest
across areas north and west of the Capital District. Highs on Monday
will generally be in the 60s and 70s except some upper 50s across
the Adirondacks.

Upper-level heights will rise and surface high pressure returns with
a period of drier weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
will rebound to slightly above normal levels by Wednesday. There is
some uncertainty when the next upper-level trough returns and brings
our next chance for some showers and thunderstorms with some sources
of guidance suggesting Thursday and others holding off until Friday.
For now, will run with the NBM PoPs which includes slight chance to
low chance PoPs both days. Warmer and more humid weather also
returns by the end of the week with highs in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...An upper level low will move across the
region through early this afternoon. Initially, clouds have
scoured from around KALB-KPOU but will re-develop early this
morning from NW to SE. BKN cigs at KGFL/KPSF should remain, with
borderline MVFR/VFR cigs at KPSF. All other sites through remain
VFR through 12z today. Then, widely scattered showers will move
across the area, mainly along and especially north of I-90. So
have included VCSH and/or PROB30 at KALB/KGFL/KPSF from around
12z through 18z. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible within
any SHRA, but cigs may tend more towards prevailing MVFR levels
at KPSF.

Scattered SHRA should end after 18z, with drying conditions and
clouds gradually decreasing through the rest of the afternoon
with short wave ridging building in behind the upper low. VFR
conditions are then expected to prevail through the rest of the
TAF period ending 06z Sun with just FEW-SCT mid level clouds.

Winds will initially be west-southwest around 3-7 kt, becoming
westerly and steadily increasing to 10-17 kt with gusts of
20-30 kt developing by early afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...JPV