050
FXUS61 KALY 181056
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
656 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure continues today with increasing
clouds as a weather system moves along the Atlantic Coast. This
weather system could bring chances of rain showers into
Thursday. Friday could see some lingering showers in the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills region, otherwise dry
conditions are in store into this weekend through early next
week with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:34 AM Update... Latest surface observations and nighttime
microphysics satellite imagery continues to show valley areas
this morning with patchy fog. Visibility can be quickly reduced
when encountering fog, use extra caution while traveling this
morning. Fog begins to diminish after 8 AM as daylight increases
and will continue to lift during the morning hours. The current
forecast is doing well and on track for a mostly to partly
cloudy day in store with dry conditions. See previous discussion
below for more details...

To start off this Wednesday morning, fog in valleys have been
observed on Night Fog Satellite imagery and surface observations
for the last few hours and will continue to bring impacts of
reduced visibility through sunrise. Once daylight increases, fog
will diminish for this morning. High pressure is still in place
so dry conditions are forecasted to continue today, with a
weather system moving northward along the Atlantic Coast
bringing clouds to our area tonight. Chances of precipitation
across the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills regions
tonight into tomorrow morning continue to see a drying trend
with latest high resolution model guidance, so decreased
probabilities of precipitation through tomorrow morning to less
than 15 percent. For tonight into tomorrow morning, patchy fog
could develop across the Mohawk Valley and the western
Adirondacks. Temperatures today remain on the warm side with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows tonight into tomorrow
morning in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As our weather system continues to move into our area for Thursday,
mostly cloudy skies continue and probability for rain shower
activity is primarily for the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills
for Thursday. Locations north of Albany are favored by latest high
resolution model guidance to remain dry through this timeframe as
the center of the coastal low pressure system remains off the coast
and will stay to the south of us, bringing chances of precipitation
for locations south and east of Albany Thursday night into Friday.
Forecast confidence is high for locations north of Albany to remain
dry through this timeframe as probabilities for accumulating
rainfall are less than 15% per latest National Blend of Models 4.2
data (NBM).

The low pressure system continues into Friday with chances of
precipitation (of at least a trace) between 15 and 30 percent for
locations south and east of Albany. Locations north and west
continue to see dry conditions but mostly cloudy skies Friday. While
not everyone will see a shower on Friday, at this forecast time the
primary location for a rain shower Friday afternoon and evening is
across the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills into parts of
the Berkshires.


High temperatures on Thursday are forecasted to be in the upper 70s
to low 80s. For Friday, highs in the low to upper 70s. Low
temperatures continue to be in the upper 50s to low 60s across
eastern New York and western New England for this timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our stretch of dry and rather tranquil weather continue this weekend
with temperatures trending towards seasonable fall levels just in
time to welcome the first day of autumn on Sunday. Our coastal
disturbance that has meandered off the coast the past few days
continues to slowly drift off the New England coast as a strong area
of high pressure from Quebec builds southward. The incoming high
will act to steer the coastal low further out to sea as a cold front
sinks southward along its leading edge. Given lackluster moisture
and a weak thermal gradient, we maintained a generally dry forecast
for Saturday outside of some slight chance POPs near the I-84
corridor where the coastal low may still support some isolated
showers as it departs. Should moisture and/or forcing along the
incoming cold front increase, we may introduce some increased POPs
for the region on Saturday in future updates. Otherwise, seasonably
warm temperatures expected on Saturday ahead of the front under
partly cloudy skies.

Cooler, breezy, and dry Sunday into Monday as our Canadian high
builds over the Northeast at the sfc while mid-level ridging from
the Midwest expands eastward. North to northeasterly winds usher in
a cooler, fall-like air mass as well with daytime highs in the upper
60s to low 70s and cool overnight lows dropping into the 40s to
around 50 in valley areas.

A warm front attendant to a broad rather flat shortwave trough
displaced well to our west in the Central Plains tracks through the
Northeast on Tuesday; however, between the low moisture and weak
overall forcing, we did not included POPs at this time but will
continue to evaluate and adjust POPs as necessary. Otherwise,
Tuesday looks to trend slightly cooler as our Canadian becomes
wedged over eastern New England, enhancing the easterly fetch off
the Atlantic.

Guidance continues to point to the middle of next week as our next
chance for more widespread rain. A trough from the Midwest tracks
eastward and amplifies, potentially inducing a secondary sfc low
along the leading edge of its low-level jet. Such a feature could
help focus moisture and forcing into a more organized area of rain.
Will continue to monitor over the coming days. This would be
beneficial rain after over two weeks without widespread rainfall.
See weather.gov/media/aly/climate/dryspells.pdf for a list of
Albany`s dry spells (i.e at least 14 consecutive days without
measurable rainfall).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fog resulting in IFR vis and cigs at ALB and IFR vis at GFL
should dissipate by 12- 13 UTC. Then, VFR conditions expected at
all sites through the end of the TAF period as a BKN to OVC
cirrus canopy blankets the terminals today. Some patchy
scattered showers from an incoming coastal low may be within the
vicinity of POU towards the end of the TAF period (09 - 12 UTC)
but only included VCSH given a dry atmospheric sounding.

Light winds (near or under 5 kts) expected for GFL, ALB, and
POU with winds becoming easterly at PSF by 17 - 18 UTC and
sustained around 5-6kts through sunset. Then winds become light
and variable at all sites after sunset.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speciale