265
FXUS61 KALY 210526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
126 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain mild tonight with a mostly clear sky and
some patchy late-night fog.  Tuesday will be another warm day, with
a few afternoon thunderstorms across northern areas.  Hot weather is
expected again on Wednesday, with the threat for some showers or
thunderstorms for Wednesday night into Thursday, before more
seasonable temperatures return to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:25 AM EDT...With just some thin high cirrus
and light to calm winds outside of the north/south oriented
valleys, temperatures for some of the sheltered areas have
already dropped into the low to mid 50s, which is near the
respective dew points. For these areas, including the ADKs,
eastern Catskills, and Taconics, temperatures were adjusted down
a few to several degrees with this update. With light southerly
winds up the Hudson Valley, many of these areas are still in the
mid to upper 60s, which is right around or even slightly warmer
than the previous forecast. Otherwise, just minor adjustments
with this update. There is also a low chance for some patchy
stratus in the Mid Hudson Valley towards sunrise, although
currently it looks confined well to our south and east. Previous
forecast remains in good shape with more details below...

.Previous...Surface high pressure (around 1018 mb) is located
off the eastern seaboard. Upper level ridge axis, extending from
the mid Atlantic north-northeast towards New England, is
centered close to the area, but this will be shifting slightly
east-southeast for tonight.

Visible satellite imagery shows some passing cirrus, and skies
will remain fairly clear into tonight aside from this. A light
south to southeast flow at low levels will continue to keep low
levels fairly moist.

After the warm temps today, it will cool this tonight, but the
relatively high dewpoints will keep temps from getting too
chilly. Most spots will see lows in the 50s to near 60. Some
patchy fog may develop in valley areas (especially spots
sheltered within the terrain), but fog should be fairly brief
and limited to just the late night hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With the ridge axis shifting eastward, a weak disturbance will
be passing by to the north on Tuesday. The best dynamics will be
well north of the area across southern Canada. Northern areas
could see a stray shower or t-storm as early as the morning
hours, although the better chance is likely in the afternoon or
early evening hours. Even then, coverage will be fairly
isolated, as the best forcing will be north of the area. While
the warm and humid air mass in place will allow for plenty of
instability, shear looks limited, with 0-6 km bulk shear values
around 20 kts and mid level lapse rates look fairly poor as
well. Any thunderstorm in our area should be fairly brief and
short- lived, although some gusty winds can`t be ruled out when
storms collapse thanks to the strong DCAPE and an inverted v
setup in the lower portion of the sounding profile. With plenty
of warm temps in place, it will another very warm day, with many
areas seeing highs well into the 80s.

After the disturbance departs, quiet weather will return for
Tuesday night, but it looks muggy and mild, with many spots
seeing lows in the 60s and skies becoming mostly clear once
again.

Ridging will try to reestablish itself briefly on Wednesday.
Temps aloft look very warm for late May (850 hpa temps around
+15 to +18 C) and high should once again be well into the 80s,
with even some lows 90s possible in the Capital Region. Heat
Index values look to fall short of Advisory criteria, but it
will be close and anyone being outdoors should take caution, as
this will be the first shot of real heat for this season. After
a mostly sunny start to the day, some clouds will begin to
increase for late in the day, as the next disturbance begins to
approach from the Great Lakes.

Some showers and thunderstorms are possible for Wed evening into
Wed night, as a pre-frontal surface trough heads towards the
area. The timing isn`t favorable for strong storms and shear
still looks fairly low, so just scattered showers and non-
severe thunderstorms are anticipated. Lows will be in the 60s
and it will continue to feel rather humid on Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Frontal boundary will be moving through the region on Thursday.
There still are some questions regarding the exact timing of the
frontal boundary. 0-6 km bulk shear may increase somewhat,
although the best upper level forcing will still be fairly well
displaced from the surface boundary. There is the potential for
some stronger storms on Thursday if the boundary comes through
during the afternoon and some better heating can occur ahead of
the front allowing for more instability. Will continue to
mention a high chance for showers and t-storms on Thursday, with
daytime temps still in the 80s in many areas.

Behind the front, more seasonable and less humid air will return
for Friday. Daytime temps will only be in the 70s, with more
reasonable dewpoints and no expected precip. It should continue
to remain fairly quiet into Saturday as well, with comfortable
temps and humidity levels and little chance for any precip.

The forecast for Sunday into Labor Day is a little more
uncertain, but mostly due to being farther out in the forecast
period and there is uncertainty regarding exact timing of any
approaching disturbances. There could be some approaching upper
level disturbances from the west, allowing for some scattered
shower and t-storm activity, but the forecast doesn`t look a
wash out at all and most of the time it will be dry. Temps look
seasonable in the 70s with typical levels of humidity for late
May.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z/Wed...Cirrus clouds will continue to stream across the
region through the overnight. This leads to some uncertainty as to
how well fog will be able to form. Based on latest trends,
maintained fog potential at the climatological favored sites of
KGFL/KPSF due to calm winds and low dewpoint depressions and removed
mentions from KALB/KPOU due to larger dewpoint depressions and a
lingering breeze. Brief IFR vsbys or lower will be possible with any
patches of fog that form. Outside of fog, VFR conditions will
prevail.

Any fog will lift early Tuesday morning with VFR conditions
remaining in place with developing fair weather cumulus around 5 kft
and high cirrus. An upper level disturbance passing by to the north
could develop some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours from KALB/KPSF north to KGFL. Have
included VCSH and PROB30 for these sites. Any activity should stay
north of KPOU.

Shower activity may linger into Tuesday evening at KGFL but end
elsewhere with some patchy mid and high clouds around for Tuesday
night. Where rain does fall and enough clearing occurs, fog could
quickly develop after sunset.

Wind will be calm or light out of the south-southeast throughout the
overnight (except south-southeasterly at 5-10 kt at KALB) then
become south to southwesterly at 5-10 kt on Tuesday. Wind will
decrease to 5 kt or less Tuesday night (except 5-10 kt at KALB).

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Main/NAS
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...NAS
CLIMATE...Speciale