910
FXUS61 KALY 290605
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
205 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering showers across the southern Adirondacks and
Upper Hudson will diminish by Wednesday morning. A disturbance
passing to the south with bring rain showers south of I-90, and
most likely along the I-84 corridor. Cooler temperatures behind
the cold frontal passage persist through Thursday night, before
a warming trend kicks off Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As an initial upper shortwave is exiting eastward into New
England while a second impulse digs over the Upper Ohio Valley
and Mid-Atlantic through tonight. As this second shortwave
passes to the south, a region of rain showers will spread from
west to east, primarily to the south of I-90 and most likely
along the I-84 corridor. Sufficient instability (MLCAPE around
500 J/kg) will allow for embedded thunderstorms, particularly in
the afternoon. While storms may result in a brief heavy
downpour, no severe weather is expected. North of I-90 and
farther from the synoptic forcing for ascent, showers will be
much more isolated or altogether absent, while skies will also
trend clearer through the evening and overnight.

Enhanced cloud cover early this morning will allow for a mild
start to the day, but cooler air aloft within upper troughing
with keep temperatures near to slightly below normal, reaching
afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and
upper 60s to mid 70s at lower elevations. A surface wind shift
boundary will sink across the region overnight tonight, with
developing cold advection in northerly flow allowing for cooler
temperatures as lows fall to the upper 30s to low 40s in high
terrain and mid 40s to low 50s at lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Expecting a seasonably cool and mainly dry day for Thursday as
northerly winds advect in a cooler and much drier air mass from
Canada. With the boundary shifting further south and the
shortwave from Wednesday night exiting into New England by early
morning, Thursday has trended drier. In fact, morning clouds
should given way to increasing sun through the day with
decreasing dew points. PWATs even drop to 0.30-0.50" as
northerly winds become a bit breezy during the afternoon as
large scale high pressure builds into western NY/PA tightening
the sfc pressure gradient. Increased winds a bit from NBM to
show winds gusts reaching up to 20kts during diurnal peaking
heating hours. While the incoming air mass is quite cool (850
hPa isotherms +5 to +7C), the enhanced boundary layer mixing
should help afternoon temperatures reach into the low 70s in the
Hudson and Mohawk Valley with low to mid 60s in the hill towns
and higher terrain. Otherwise, POPs has trended lower with only
slight chance POPs now for portions of western New England and
rain-free forecast elsewhere.

Ideal radiational cooling expected Thursday night thanks to
clearing skies and northerly winds maintaining a cool/dry
Canadian air mass. With dew points dropping into the 30s to low
40s and winds turning light/variable in response to high
pressure building eastward, expecting chilly temperatures
Thursday night. Blended in NBM10th percentile guidance to
capture the chilly temperature potential. Morning lows should
drop into the mid to upper 40s with upper 30s to low 40s in the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stretch of very pleasant summer-like weather is expected
Friday through the beginning of next week. Our upper level
trough exits out to sea on Friday with subsidence building into
the Northeast for the weekend as an amplified ridge axis builds
eastward. This will provide a stretch of dry weather and
comfortable humidity levels as northerly winds on the east side
of the incoming ridge maintain a fetch of dry air from Canada
directed into the Northeast. Temperatures initially will start
out seasonable but trend warmer through the weekend as the upper
level ridge axis shifts into New England, allowing a
southwesterly return flow. Highs likely reach into the upper 70s
to low 80s Saturday and Sunday before trending even warmer by
Monday and Tuesday. The ridging will support plenty of sunshine
this weekend so it will feel even warmer when out in the sun.

There are some discrepancies on how the pattern evolves by early
next week as guidance indicates the potential for some
shortwaves to track into the Northeast which support some
scattered showers and thunderstorms but there is still too much
spread to pin point the exact location, durations or coverage of
any precipitation activity. We show slight chance and chance
POPs increasing in coverage by early next week to represent
this potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z/Thu...An upper level trough will be in place through the
upcoming TAF period. An upper level shortwave will pass by to our
south Wednesday evening. VFR conditions are in place at most TAF
sites and should remain VFR for much of the TAF period. The
exception will be for some MVFR stratus at times at KPSF into
Wednesday morning. A weakening area of showers could move over KGFL
over the next few hours but no cig/vsbys reductions are anticipated.
Still, will address with a VCSH. No fog is expected at any sites.

There is some uncertainty on the northward extent of rainfall later
Wednesday afternoon and evening. At this time, the best rain chances
are at KPOU with decreasing chances farther north. Will only
maintain VCSH at KPOU for Wednesday afternoon and monitor trends on
the northern extent of this rainfall in later TAF issuances.

Wind will be west to northwesterly for much of the TAF period at 4-
10 kt (except more northerly at KGFL on Wednesday).

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday, the combination of temperatures in the 60s
to 70s and dew points in the 30s to 40s will lead to minimum RH
values between 30 and 40%. Northwesterly wind gusts may reach 15-20
mph as well during the afternoon. Most areas saw at least a quarter
to half inch of rain yesterday, and additional showers are expected
this afternoon and again tomorrow. While this should limit the
overall fire weather concerns, special weather statements may be
considered depending on the coverage of showers today/tomorrow and
how much fuels dry out between now and Thursday.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...Speciale