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000
FXUS61 KALY 211431
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1031 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will yield mostly sunny conditions and a
warm afternoon. Clouds will increase this evening into tonight, as a
frontal system approaches from the southwest. This storm will bring
some rain to the region for late tonight into Tuesday with cooler
temperatures. Mainly dry and warm weather is expected for Wednesday
through Friday before some showers return for the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1030 AM EDT...Surface high pressure will move over NY and
New England this afternoon with fair and dry weather. The 12Z
KALY sounding shows a few inversions that we should overcome
with limited/some mixing and the strong sun angle. With the
subsidence in place, winds will be fairly light this afternoon.

Highs should reach the mid 70s for valley areas today, with
upper 60s to low 70s across the hills and mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As high pressure starts to depart off to the east by this
evening, some clouds will start to increase from west to east
for the first half of tonight. Surface low pressure will be
located over the lower Ohio River Valley/Midwest and will be
shifting northeast towards the eastern Great Lakes and western
New York by Tuesday morning.

As the storm`s warm front lifts northeast, isentropic lift/warm
air advection will allow for an area of steady rainfall to move
towards the area from western/central New York and northern
Pennsylvania for late tonight. Based off the latest 06z
HRRRX & 00z NAM, rainfall doesn`t look to reach our western
areas until around sunrise Tuesday. Lows will mainly be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

As the warm front lifts across the area, have gone with likely
POPs over much of the area for about mid morning through mid
afternoon, as this looks to be when forcing will be best over
the region. By late in the day, precip will start to become a
little more spotty, but southern and eastern areas will continue
to see some additional showers into Tuesday evening as the low
pressure area slides by to the south. Highs on Tuesday only
look to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s thanks to the clouds and
rainfall.

During the day Wednesday, a cold front will be moving across
the area as an upper level shortwave trough shifts from Quebec
towards northern New England. With little moisture available,
not really expecting any more than just a stray shower across
northern areas with this front. Otherwise, expect a partly to
mostly sunny sky with highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We begin the long term on a rather tranquil and dry note before a
notable pattern shift toward more moisture for the holiday weekend.

As mentioned in the previous excellent discussion, still expecting
an upper level shortwave trough to slide southeast across New
England on Wednesday night. This will allow for a surface cold front
to slide through the region from generally north to south, although
this front will be fairly moisture starved and mainly characterized
by a wind shift and dewpoint change. Still cannot totally rule out a
few showers so included a slight chance on Wednesday. Outside of a
slight chance for showers mainly to the north of the area and into
the terrain, the night should be mostly dry with Wednesday night
temperatures falling into the low 50s, with upper 40s in the high
terrain. Thursday afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s for valley
locations and 60s elsewhere.

Dry weather should continue into Friday as surface high pressure
slides across and remains near the area with temps a few degrees
warmer (around 80 degrees for the Hudson River Valley).

High pressure will slide east of the region by the holiday weekend,
putting our local region into a south to southwest flow regime. This
will increase low level moisture and bring a return of rain chances
during Memorial day weekend as a northern stream upper level
shortwave approaches and eventually crosses the region. Saturday,
depending on where frontal boundaries eventually set up and move, we
will expand the PoPs a bit for the chance of convection. However,
the best forcing with the trough remains further north and west of
the local area. The rain chances appear to increase by Sunday-Sunday
night, with a diminishing trend into Memorial Day Monday. There is
also potential for a tropical moisture connection with this
rainfall, but remains fairly uncertain at this time how these
features will interact. Afternoon highs will gradually cool
throughout the holiday weekend, with highs on Saturday in the upper
70s and overnight lows near 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While most of the time conditions will be VFR, the potential for
MVFR/IFR conditions will exist briefly this morning in spots.
Otherwise, mainly high thin scattered clouds are expected through
the TAF forecast cycle with a thickening of those clouds after
midnight toward 12Z Tuesday.

Winds will be less than 5 kts this morning. Then winds will
generally be from the west-northwest around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday through Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With high pressure overhead, a mostly sunny sky will allow for
RH values to fall to near 30 percent this afternoon with west
winds of 5 to 10 mph.

Clouds will increase this evening into tonight, and RH values
will rise for tonight into Tuesday, with some rain expected
across the region. Most areas will see at least a quarter of an
inch of rainfall on Tuesday with RH values only falling as low
as 60 percent. Light winds in the morning will increase out of
the south at 5 to 15 mph for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week.

With high pressure nearby, dry weather is expected today into
most of tonight. A storm system will bring a period of rainfall
late tonight through Tuesday evening, with basin average
amounts of a quarter to half inch. This rainfall will have
little impact on area rivers and streams, with flows expected to
remain steady over the next few days.

Dry weather is expected to return for Wednesday through Friday.
The next chance for showers and possible thunderstorms will be
over the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...BGM/JVM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis