


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
271 FXUS61 KALY 110229 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 929 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in south of the region tonight with the lake effect snow showers lifting northward into the western Adirondacks region with light accumulations. A weak cold front will move through tomorrow with some scattered snow showers and flurries north of the Capital Region, as a storm system passing to the south may bring some very light snow to the Interstate 84 corridor. Another complex storm system brings a widespread wintry mix to the region Wednesday night through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Key Message: - Lake effect snowband lifts northward into the western Adirondacks and weakens tonight with light snow accums. .Update...As of 925 PM EST...Scattered lake effect snow showers noted on the previous update have diminished and shifted northward, and per KTYX are located mainly in northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties. They will remain there through the night, with clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Adjusted POPs for the lake effect in this update, with little changes made elsewhere with the forecast on track. See previous discussion below... Previous Discussion...Diffuse lake effect snow showers and flurries from the northern Catskills, Greater Capital Region, north- central Taconics, Berkshires northward to the Mohawk Valley, Saratoga Region and southern VT will weaken early this evening. As any lake effect snowband activity will shift northward, as the low to mid level flows backs as high pressure builds in from PA and NJ. The Canadian RGEM/3-km HRRR have more robust activity lifting northward into the western Adirondacks, especially along and north of RT 28 and Old Forge. A few inches of snow may fall over Stillwater Reservoir and the Wilderness areas. It will depend on the lake trajectory extension and in an environment of lake conditional instability with the low-level inversion down to 4-5 kft AGL. Clouds will likely thin a bit south of the lake activity. This may occur from the Capital Region/I-90 corridor south and east and we leaned closer to the colder MAVMOS with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, as temps will plummet with light to calm winds and a fresher snow cover. If the Lake George and Glens Falls area clears very cold reading may occur. Overall, have lows in the single digits to lower teens near I-84. A few below zero readings are possible in the Adirondack Park and Lake George Region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message: - Weak coastal low Tue night into Wed looks to remain mainly south of our region, but there is a 20 percent chance for at least one inch of snow near the I-84 corridor of southern Dutchess and southern Litchfield Counties. - Storm system with snow changing to mixed precipitation expected Wednesday night through Thursday morning with increasing probabilities for light to moderate snow accums and a light glaze of ice. Discussion: Tomorrow...the surface high shifts off the East Coast and remains south of southern New England. The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal. The lake effect will diminish, as a northern stream short-wave and weak cold front will move across the region with some scattered snow shower and flurries over the Adirondack Park and the Lake George Region. The low-level moisture is limited further to the south and east, but clouds will increase. Meanwhile, mid and high clouds will increase from the winter storm system impacting the Mid Atlantic Region. Below normal temps are expected once again, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s in the valley areas and upper teens and mid 20s over the hills and mtns. Tue night...The consensus from the short-range guidance including the ensembles and WPC is that coastal low will remain well to south of the region with little to no impact with just an increase of clouds and some very light snow possibly reaching the I-84 corridor of southern Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. NBM probabilities in these area for an 1" or more of snow remain at 20% or less. We kept some slight and low chance PoPs in these areas with dusting to less than a half an inch. High pressure will be building in from the southern Quebec Tue night. There should be a sharp cutoff in the cloud cover north of I-90. Lows will fall back into the single digits north of Albany and mainly teens south with some below zero readings in the southern Dacks. By Wednesday, the coastal low tracks well to the south and east into the western Atlantic Ocean. A 1036 hPa sfc anticyclone to the north slowly slides eastward over Quebec to the Gulf of St Lawrence as the zonal flow break down as a complex low pressure system approaches from the Midwest and Kentucky Wed evening. Mid and high clouds will increase from the south and west with the southwesterly flow aloft. Low and mid level warm advection will increase and it looks like any warm advection pcpn will hold off until at night. Highs will be in the 20s to lower 30s. Wed night-Thu...The next impactful winter system arrives with another wintry mix. The low-level warm advection increases associated with an inverted sfc trough and a warm front well to the south. Some cold air air damming occurs and sufficiently cold enough air is in place for snowfall for the onset. The 2" snow probabilities form the the latest NBM4.2 are 40-60% over the Adirondack Park, parts of the Lake George northern Saratoga Region, southern VT and the eastern Catskills. Our latest forecast is for 1-3" in many of the valley areas with some 2-4" amounts over the higher terrain, except the northern mountains and southern VT where 3-6" before a transition to sleet and freezing rain occurs as the warm nose sneaks aloft and some colder air remains trapped at the sfc. Lows in the teens and 20s will steadily rise Wed night. Shallow cold air remains trapped at the sfc, but gradually erodes Thu morning with coatings to less than a tenth of an inch advertised. The sfc high releases as the primary low moves into the eastern Great Lakes Region. A secondary low forms near NJ and Long Island for any mixed pcpn...which will do have changing to rain in the valleys and south of I-90 for a time. We will likely need advisories for most of the region Wed night into Thu. Tough to tell if any warning headlines are needed over the north with lows probs from WPC. Temps briefly warm up into the mid 30s to around 40F in the lower elevations with upper 20s to lower/mid 30s over the mtns. We stayed close to the NBM profiles for temps Wed night into Thu for now. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Messages: - Another storm system looks to impact the region over the weekend with widespread precipitation, with snow, mixed precipitation and or rain across eastern New York and western New England. Discussion: Windy conditions will develop Thu night as a storm system exits off the New England coast and high pressure builds east across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. NW flow will also provide chances for lake effect snow showers mainly over the Mohawk/Schoharie Valleys. It will turn colder with lows ranging from the single digits to 10s. High pressure will then build east into our area on Fri, resulting in lake effect snow showers ending and winds becoming lighter later in the day. It will remain cool with highs ranging from the upper 10s to lower 30s. Dry and cold conditions expected Sat night as high pressure gradually shifts east of the region. The weather then becomes more active Sat into Sun, as a significant storm system approaches from the south/west and tracks northeastward across the region. There is considerable spread among the deterministic and ensemble guidance with regards to the storm track and associated QPF and precip types. At this time is appears that with a sufficiently cold air mass in place any precip would likely start as snow on Sat, then possibly transition to a wintry mix Sat night into Sun, with some areas even changing to rain. However, there is low confidence in precipitation transitions as well as snowfall/ice amounts. The latest long range forecast ensemble probabilities show a 20-70 percent chance for > 4" snow going from south to north, along with a 20-30 percent chance for > 0.1" ice from north to south across the area. There is at least higher confidence for moderate to moderate to heavy precip. This system looks to exit Sun night into Mon, with windy and colder conditions developing in its wake. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. Lake enhanced clouds moving across the KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAF sites through this evening, possibly lingering a few more hours at KGFL. Mid level clouds will gradually increase again on Tuesday, with cigs remaining at VFR levels. Winds will initially be northwest around 6-12 kt, becoming variable at less than 5 kt overnight. Winds will shift to the southwest around 5-10 kt on Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SN...SLEET. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...SN...FZRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SN. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Speck/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...JPV