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000
FXUS61 KALY 070551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1251 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures will continue today before a warming
trend ensues for early in the week. Temperatures are expected to be
well above normal Tuesday into the midweek period. Mainly dry
weather is expected through midweek with high pressure in control.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE 1250 AM EST...The clouds continue to persist in the
cyclonic flow this morning. Some thinning is starting to occur
in the cloud cover over the southern Dacks and eastern VT based
on the 10.3-3.9 micron curve. We tried to retool the cloud cover
with this update. A few snow showers/flurries will continue to
diminish over the eastern Catskills with the sfc trough and
short wave passage. The 00Z KALY sounding had a PWAT of 0.19".
The drier from aloft should continue to break up the cloud
cover. Lows in the single digits and teens are likely with a few
below zero readings over the southern Dacks. The winds will
continue to the become light at less than 10 mph.

.PREVIOUS 920 PM EST. Band of light snow has enhanced as it
drops southward into Schoharie Valley and the eastern Catskills.
This is in response to an upper level shortwave, embedded in
the upper trough, dropping southward. Even though there is
enhancement on radar, not much accumulation is expected due to a
decent dew point depression. That being said, the snow should
gradually lessen/diminish over the next few hours.

.PREVIOUS 630 PM EST. Light snow showers/flurries continue to
stream into the western Mohawk and Schoharie valleys this
evening with NYS Mesonet webcams showing precipitation at
Sprakers and Springfield. These showers are expected to taper
off around midnight as winds shift to a more northerly
direction. Outside of the snow showers, temps will drop to well
below normal values overnight with a few locations in the
southern Dacks possibly dipping below zero. The normal low for
Albany for early March is around 22 degrees. Have therefore
freshened up the hourly temps to reflect the recent obs as the
remainder of the forecast remains on track.

A shortwave trough diving southward from the western Great
Lakes to the Ohio Valley will reinforce the longwave trough over
the Northeast. Low level winds veering a bit may result in
clouds clearing especially in the valleys. Any lingering light
snow showers should shift back west of our area after 06Z.
Another chilly night expected with lows in the single digits to
upper teens, 5-10F below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
More shortwave energy propagating southward along the west side of
the longwave trough over the Northeast will prolong the cold airmass
one more day Sunday. Forecast soundings and model simulated cloud
fields suggest more breaks in the cloud cover compared with
Saturday, which combined with slightly less cold air aloft will
result in high temperatures around 5F warmer than Saturday, although
still 5-10F below normal mainly in the 30s in the Hudson
Valley/lower elevations of NW CT and 20s elsewhere. The wind will
not quite be as blustery as Saturday either, but still adding a bit
of chill to the air with wind chills 5-10F colder than air temps.

Heights rise aloft Sunday night with high pressure building in at the
surface, which should result in good radiational cooling conditions
under mostly clear skies. Lows generally ranging from 0-15F.

A warming trend is expected for Monday/Tuesday as the 850 mb cold
pocket shifts eastward and WAA occurs from the west. Mid/high clouds
increase later in the day Monday ahead of a weak/sheared northern
stream wave, but highs will inch closer to normal, generally in the
30s. A few light snow showers are possible mainly for the western
Adirondacks Monday evening into early Monday night in association
with the weak wave. Just some entry level chance PoPs for now with
minimal accumulation expected. Lows Monday night mainly in the 20s.

850 mb temps finally approach 0C Tuesday beneath NW flow aloft
promoting subsidence and high pressure building in at the surface.
Though forecast soundings suggest we will not mix up to 850 mb,
partial sunshine will help boost highs back above normal, ranging
from the upper 30s to the mid-50s. Albany has a chance to hit 50F
for the first time since Christmas Day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Spring-like temperatures are expected to begin the period Wednesday
and Thursday before cooling down for the weekend. The beginning of
the period looks dry, although precipitation chances increase
towards the middle of the period due to an approaching cold front.
With warm temperatures, precipitation looks to be mainly rain
outside the higher elevations of the Adirondacks. Cooler
temperatures are expected for next weekend. Details below...

We begin the period under an upper-level ridge with high pressure
sliding off the East Coast. The resulting southwesterly flow should
allow for warm air advection into the region, helping temperatures
rise into the upper 40s to upper 50s across much of the region with
some valley locations potentially making a run at 60 degrees
Wednesday. The influence of the departing surface high should
keep skies partly to mostly clear through the day Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday, a cold front begins to approach from
the west as a surface low moves northeastward out of the Great Lakes
region into Canada. A weak shortwave in advance of this front could
bring some more clouds and a few scattered showers mainly for our
northern zones, although expecting most of the region to remain dry
through the day Thursday as the cold front should remain to our west
through the day. This should once again allow for temperatures in
the upper 40s to upper 50s with low 60s possible in the Hudson
Valley up to the Capital District.

Models diverge in the forecast as we get into the Thursday night
into Friday timeframe. The Euro/CMC are most progressive with the
cold front, while the GFS has a slower progression of the cold front
through our region Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation chances
and high temperatures Friday will greatly depend on how quickly this
front moves through our region. As of right now, have chance PoPs
for Thursday night into Friday and used a model blend for
temperatures. However, a more progressive solution could lead to
cooler temperatures and drier conditions during the day Friday.

Northern stream troughing looks to approach the region towards the
end of the period, which could bring temperatures on the order of 10
degrees cooler than those for Friday. Approaching troughing could
also increase precipitation chances, but given the long lead time
and model discrepancies decided to just include slight chance PoPs
for this timeframe. With significant model differences in the
predicted amplitude and forward speed of this northern stream
trough, the forecast for the end of the period is one of low
confidence and adjustments to the forecast should be expected as
models come into better agreement over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday....

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the 06z TAF cycle.
Expect mainly overcast skies with ceilings around 3-4 kft with a
shortwave overhead. As a 1028 mb surface high pressure system builds
into the region, cloud coverage will show some improvements
during the day on Sunday.

While winds will be near calm at KGFL, winds will be generally 5-10
kts out of the north-northwest through the 06z TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological issues are expected through the mid
week.

Cold and mainly dry weather will persist this weekend into
Monday with little impact on the waterways. Any decrease in
snowpack will be through sublimation.

Tuesday through the mid week temperatures will moderate above
normal with some snow melt. The next chance of widespread
showers may not occur until late Thu into Fri. Total QPF does
not look very heavy with the frontal passage late in the week.
Some river and streams may show a diurnal fluctuation in
flows/hydro traces with snow melt through the mid week.
However, widespread ice break-up or hydro issues are not
anticipated at this time at least through the mid week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...Thompson/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Thompson/JLV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Evbuoma
HYDROLOGY...Wasula