Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 191052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
652 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

.UPDATE...
As of 6:50 AM EDT, clear skies were observed over the area with
temperatures ranging in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Expect for a
dry and tranquil weather day under sunny to mostly sunny skies.
Made slight adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints to reflect
current observations and forecast trends. Rest of forecast
remains on track. See discussion below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather
conditions. Temperatures will continue to warm up from near
seasonable levels today to warmer than normal levels Wednesday and
Thursday. The weather pattern is then expected to become more
unsettled Thursday into the weekend with periods of rain showers.
Temperatures are expected to undergo a cool down Thursday into the
weekend with values returning to cooler than normal levels Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiescent weather conditions commences today as subsidence,
associated with a mid-level ridge axis to our west over the central
U.S. and associated stout surface high pressure system centered over
the Southeast U.S., builds/filters into the region.

With the departed 535-537 hpa mid-upper low to our northeast over
eastern Quebec/Nova Scotia area and building heights associated with
the aforementioned ridge to our west, a tight pressure gradient will
be established over the area. With mixing/Xfer momentum heights
modestly increasing to about 850 hpa where winds at that level will
be 40-50 kts, these winds out of the west-northwest could mix down
to the surface/boundary layer resulting in a breezy day at times
today. Gradient winds are expected to increase 10-15 kts across the
area today. Enhancements due to the channeling down the Mohawk
valley could result in occasional peak wind gust between 20-30 kts
today with the areas most favored for the highest wind gust being
from the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District and in the
Berkshires of western Massachusetts.

Outside of that, expect a tranquil day today. Warm air advection
(WAA) from the west will result in temperatures warming up to near
seasonable levels this afternoon across eastern New York and
western New England. High temperatures are expected to rise into the
lower to mid 60s along the valleys (50s higher elevations and even
some upper 40s over the highest peaks). With a light westerly breeze
continuing into the nighttime hours under variable cloudiness, low
temperatures will not be as cool for mid to late October standards
with values in the lower 50s along the valleys (40s higher
elevations).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday, the H500 heights deamplify or flatten out over the
region. Isobars are expected to loosen some as the aforementioned
upper low moves further away from the region. Additionally,
mixing/Xfer momentum heights are not expected to rise as high as on
Tuesday. As a result, winds could be breezy at times on Wednesday,
just not as breezy as on Tuesday. Expect for west-northwest winds to
range between 5-10 kts with gusts as high as 20-25 kts. Again, the
favored areas of the highest wind speeds/gusts will be from the
Mohawk Valley into the Capital District into the Berkshires.

It will be another dry and tranquil day under mostly skies amid flat
ridging overhead. West winds will continue to advect in warmer air
into the region. That said, expect for temperatures to be
unseasonably warm with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower
70s along the valleys (upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher
elevations). Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night will be mild
as well with values in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

On Thursday, a 1008 hpa mid-latitude cyclone will be approaching
from the Central U.S. Winds will shift out of the south ahead of the
storm system. With the cold front associated with the storm system
still west of the area Thursday afternoon, it should be another
unseasonably warm day with high temperatures forecast to climb into
the upper 60s to lower 70s (upper 50s to lower 60s higher
elevations). As clouds thicken and lower in elevation, rain showers
will overspread the region from northwest to southeast Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. Thursday night looks to be the
timeframe where the rain will be most widespread over the area. Rain
rates and QPF values alike look to be light. QPF totals by Friday
morning are forecast to range between one to three tenths of an
inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Friday, our region will be located in the wake of a surface
frontal boundary but still downstream of an approaching upper level
trough over the Great Lakes. West-southwest flow will dominate at
all levels ahead of the advancing upper level energy.  It should be
dry, as we will be caught between the best forcing.  While temps
will be somewhat cooler and less humid than Thursday, there won`t be
a large drop in temps, as the cooler temps will still be located off
to the west.  Daytime temps should reach the mid to upper 60s for
valley areas, with 50s for the hills and mountains.

Over the weekend, the large upper level trough will be moving
towards the Northeast. Despite that the core of the upper level low
may still remain just to our north, there will be significantly
lower height/temps aloft that will make for much cooler temps for
the weekend.  Daytime temps will only be in the 40s and 50s, with
30s at night.

Some models continue to show a wave of low pressure developing along
the front offshore, which could be close enough to bring some light
rain to the region.  However, some models continue to show this far
enough offshore, so will keep POPs fairly low at this time.  Even
without the coastal wave, some showers will be possible over the
weekend, thanks to the cyclonic flow in place.  This will be
especially true for areas north/west of the Capital Region, as some
lake-enhancement will be possible.  With the much cooler temps
aloft, can`t rule out some wet snowflakes mixing across the western
Adirondacks at times as well. Skies should be fairly cloudy through
the weekend thanks to the cyclonic flow and cool temps aloft.

For early next week, temps will continue to be chilly, as the upper
level low slowly departs off to the east.  The threat for
instability/cyclonic flow showers should diminish, with skies
becoming partly to mostly clear.  Daytime temps will continue to be
in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with overnight lows ranging from the
upper 20s to mid 30s. This will allow for a widespread frost
for most areas, with a freeze possible as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level low is located over eastern Canada and will continue to
slowly move eastward today.

Through the day, VFR conditions are expected for all sites with just
mid level clouds around, thanks to some lingering moisture on the
backside of the departing upper level low. Clouds may wind up being
few-sct this morning, but may become sct-bkn for later this
afternoon into this evening.

West to northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts for all sites.
A few higher gusts are possible in the late morning or early
afternoon hours, especially at KALB.

Winds will somewhat decrease for this evening into tonight, but will
still remain elevated around 10 kts. The sct-bkn mid level clouds
this evening will start to become few-sct at 4-5 kft for the
overnight hours, allowing for VFR conditions to continue.  With the
breeze and dry low-levels in place, no worries for any radiational
fog for tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather issues are not expected over the next few days.

Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather conditions.
Temperatures will continue to warm up from near seasonable levels
today to warmer than normal levels Wednesday and Thursday. The
weather pattern is then expected to become more unsettled Thursday
into the weekend with periods of rain showers. Temperatures are
expected to undergo a cool down Thursday into the weekend with
values returning to cooler than normal levels Sunday into early next
week.

Minimum relative humidity (RH) values today will range from 40-60%
with the lowest values located over the mid-Hudson Valley. Tonight,
max RH values will range between 85-100%. On Wednesday, minimum
relative humidity values will range from 45-75%. Wednesday night,
max relative humidity values will range from 85-100%. On Thursday,
minimum relative humidity values will range between 50-75%.

Winds today will be out of the west-northwest 10-15 kts with gusts
ranging between 20-30 kts. The highest gusts will be located along a
corridor from the Mohawk Valley, into the Capital District and into
the Berkshires of western Massachusetts. Westerly winds will abate
tonight at 5-10 kts with gusts as high as 15-20 kts (greatest values
over the higher terrain). On Wednesday, west-northwest winds will
range from 5-15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. Again, the favored
corridor of highest wind gust speeds will be from the Mohawk Valley
into the Capital District into the Berkshires.  Wednesday night,
winds will subside become very light to calm with magnitudes less
than 5 kts. On Thursday, a southerly wind component will develop
with magnitudes between 5-15 kts. Winds could gust as high as 20 kts
(most favored over the Capital District).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological issues or concerns are expected over the next five
to seven days.

Today and Wednesday will feature dry and breezy weather conditions.
The weather pattern is then expected to become more unsettled
Thursday into the weekend with periods of rain showers.
Precipitation rates are expected to be light overall through the
period.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
UPDATE...Evbuoma
SYNOPSIS...Evbuoma
NEAR TERM...Evbuoma
SHORT TERM...Evbuoma
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Evbuoma
HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma


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