Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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271
FXUS61 KALY 110229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
929 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in south of the region
tonight with the lake effect snow showers lifting northward
into the western Adirondacks region with light accumulations.
A weak cold front will move through tomorrow with some scattered
snow showers and flurries north of the Capital Region, as a storm
system passing to the south may bring some very light snow to the
Interstate 84 corridor.  Another complex storm system brings a
widespread wintry mix to the region Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message:

- Lake effect snowband lifts northward into the western
  Adirondacks and weakens tonight with light snow accums.

.Update...As of 925 PM EST...Scattered lake effect snow showers
noted on the previous update have diminished and shifted
northward, and per KTYX are located mainly in northern Herkimer
and Hamilton counties. They will remain there through the night,
with clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Adjusted POPs for
the lake effect in this update, with little changes made
elsewhere with the forecast on track. See previous discussion
below...

Previous Discussion...Diffuse lake effect snow showers and
flurries from the northern Catskills, Greater Capital Region,
north- central Taconics, Berkshires northward to the Mohawk
Valley, Saratoga Region and southern VT will weaken early this
evening. As any lake effect snowband activity will shift
northward, as the low to mid level flows backs as high pressure
builds in from PA and NJ.

The Canadian RGEM/3-km HRRR have more robust activity lifting
northward into the western Adirondacks, especially along and
north of RT 28 and Old Forge. A few inches of snow may fall
over Stillwater Reservoir and the Wilderness areas. It will
depend on the lake trajectory extension and in an environment
of lake conditional instability with the low-level inversion
down to 4-5 kft AGL.

Clouds will likely thin a bit south of the lake activity. This
may occur from the Capital Region/I-90 corridor south and east
and we leaned closer to the colder MAVMOS with partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies, as temps will plummet with light to calm
winds and a fresher snow cover. If the Lake George and Glens
Falls area clears very cold reading may occur. Overall, have
lows in the single digits to lower teens near I-84. A few below
zero readings are possible in the Adirondack Park and Lake
George Region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Weak coastal low Tue night into Wed looks to remain mainly
  south of our region, but there is a 20 percent chance for at
  least one inch of snow near the I-84 corridor of southern
  Dutchess and southern Litchfield Counties.

- Storm system with snow changing to mixed precipitation
  expected Wednesday night through Thursday morning with
  increasing probabilities for light to moderate snow accums and
  a light glaze of ice.

Discussion:

Tomorrow...the surface high shifts off the East Coast and
remains south of southern New England. The mid and upper level
flow becomes zonal. The lake effect will diminish, as a
northern stream short-wave and weak cold front will move across
the region with some scattered snow shower and flurries over the
Adirondack Park and the Lake George Region. The low-level
moisture is limited further to the south and east, but clouds
will increase. Meanwhile, mid and high clouds will increase from
the winter storm system impacting the Mid Atlantic Region.
Below normal temps are expected once again, with highs in the
upper 20s to lower 30s in the valley areas and upper teens and
mid 20s over the hills and mtns.

Tue night...The consensus from the short-range guidance
including the ensembles and WPC is that coastal low will remain
well to south of the region with little to no impact with just
an increase of clouds and some very light snow possibly reaching
the I-84 corridor of southern Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield
Counties. NBM probabilities in these area for an 1" or more of
snow remain at 20% or less. We kept some slight and low chance
PoPs in these areas with dusting to less than a half an inch.
High pressure will be building in from the southern Quebec Tue
night. There should be a sharp cutoff in the cloud cover north
of I-90. Lows will fall back into the single digits north of
Albany and mainly teens south with some below zero readings in
the southern Dacks.

By Wednesday, the coastal low tracks well to the south and east
into the western Atlantic Ocean. A 1036 hPa sfc anticyclone to
the north slowly slides eastward over Quebec to the Gulf of St
Lawrence as the zonal flow break down as a complex low pressure
system approaches from the Midwest and Kentucky Wed evening.
Mid and high clouds will increase from the south and west with
the southwesterly flow aloft. Low and mid level warm advection
will increase and it looks like any warm advection pcpn will
hold off until at night. Highs will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

Wed night-Thu...The next impactful winter system arrives with
another wintry mix. The low-level warm advection increases
associated with an inverted sfc trough and a warm front well to
the south. Some cold air air damming occurs and sufficiently
cold enough air is in place for snowfall for the onset. The 2"
snow probabilities form the the latest NBM4.2 are 40-60% over
the Adirondack Park, parts of the Lake George northern Saratoga
Region, southern VT and the eastern Catskills. Our latest
forecast is for 1-3" in many of the valley areas with some 2-4"
amounts over the higher terrain, except the northern mountains
and southern VT where 3-6" before a transition to sleet and
freezing rain occurs as the warm nose sneaks aloft and some
colder air remains trapped at the sfc. Lows in the teens and 20s
will steadily rise Wed night.

Shallow cold air remains trapped at the sfc, but gradually
erodes Thu morning with coatings to less than a tenth of an inch
advertised. The sfc high releases as the primary low moves into
the eastern Great Lakes Region. A secondary low forms near NJ
and Long Island for any mixed pcpn...which will do have changing
to rain in the valleys and south of I-90 for a time. We will
likely need advisories for most of the region Wed night into
Thu. Tough to tell if any warning headlines are needed over the
north with lows probs from WPC. Temps briefly warm up into the
mid 30s to around 40F in the lower elevations with upper 20s to
lower/mid 30s over the mtns. We stayed close to the NBM profiles
for temps Wed night into Thu for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Another storm system looks to impact the region over the weekend
with widespread precipitation, with snow, mixed precipitation and or
rain across eastern New York and western New England.

Discussion:

Windy conditions will develop Thu night as a storm system exits off
the New England coast and high pressure builds east across the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes. NW flow will also provide chances for lake
effect snow showers mainly over the Mohawk/Schoharie Valleys. It
will turn colder with lows ranging from the single digits to 10s.
High pressure will then build east into our area on Fri, resulting
in lake effect snow showers ending and winds becoming lighter later
in the day. It will remain cool with highs ranging from the upper
10s to lower 30s. Dry and cold conditions expected Sat night as high
pressure gradually shifts east of the region.

The weather then becomes more active Sat into Sun, as a significant
storm system approaches from the south/west and tracks northeastward
across the region. There is considerable spread among the
deterministic and ensemble guidance with regards to the storm track
and associated QPF and precip types. At this time is appears that
with a sufficiently cold air mass in place any precip would likely
start as snow on Sat, then possibly transition to a wintry mix Sat
night into Sun, with some areas even changing to rain. However,
there is low confidence in precipitation transitions as well as
snowfall/ice amounts. The latest long range forecast ensemble
probabilities show a 20-70 percent chance for > 4" snow going from
south to north, along with a 20-30 percent chance for > 0.1" ice
from north to south across the area. There is at least higher
confidence for moderate to moderate to heavy precip. This system
looks to exit Sun night into Mon, with windy and colder conditions
developing in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the 24 hour TAF period. Lake enhanced clouds moving across the
KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAF sites through this evening, possibly lingering a
few more hours at KGFL. Mid level clouds will gradually increase
again on Tuesday, with cigs remaining at VFR levels. Winds will
initially be northwest around 6-12 kt, becoming variable at less
than 5 kt overnight. Winds will shift to the southwest around 5-10
kt on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SN...SLEET.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...SN...FZRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Speck/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV