914
FXUS64 KAMA 071734
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move east across
the Panhandles early this morning. Storms should exit the area by
mid day and have adjusted the forecast with this trend. Visible
satellite depicts much more extensive cloud cover due to the
ongoing convection than previous guidance suggested. Have greatly
increased cloud cover through the rest of the morning extending
into the early afternoon based on observational and hi-res model
guidance trends. With the cloud cover being more pronounced, high
temperatures today may not be as hot as expected, but have kept
the highs the same for now and will continue to watch observations
throughout the morning and will adjust if necessary later on today.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The upper level ridge continues it`s track to the southeast,
thanks to support from the upper trough displacing the high
further south. Thunderstorm chances still continue each day, but
we await our next cold front before we find relief from our high
temperatures.

Today, high temperatures will reach the lower 100`s across the
CWA. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Palo Duro Canyon
regarding temperatures at or above 105 degrees for extended
periods of the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm chances will
mostly be confined to the northern zones for the late afternoon
and overnight time frame, a few of which could become strong and
severe. Given the larger temperature/dewpoint spread forecasted
for tomorrow, CAPE values will not be overly impressive
(1,000-2,000 J/kg), but enough is there to support some organized
storms. There should also be better wind profiles compared to
yesterday, perhaps between 25-35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Lapse
rates should also be extremely high, approaching 9.5 C/km rates in
the mid levels. Similar to yesterday, damaging winds and some
large hail are the primary threats, with a downburst or two also
remaining in the realm of possibility given high LCL heights and
DCAPE values. This activity will continue into the night, and
storms should lose their severe potential as day time heating
ends. The southern extend of the storm activity is still in
question, as models diverge on where the system falls apart after
they become outflow dominant. Current PoPs will keep Amarillo and
parts surrounding out of the expected activity tonight, but there
is still a low chance the system holds together long enough to
travel south of the I-40 corridor.

Tomorrow, very similar dynamics in the synoptic levels will
retain most of the hazards and concerns mentioned previously.
Another surge of 100 degree temperatures and thunderstorms in the
late evening and overnight hours, some of which could also become
severe. It is not until Sunday where we see more drastic mesoscale
changes, (and some relief from the heat), as a cold front is
expected to impact the High Plains by then.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Sunday will see continued active weather even after the passage of
a cold front late on Saturday. Moisture will still sit across the
panhandles that will continue to act as the fuel for the daily
rain showers and thunderstorms. Post cold front the dynamics seem
to decrease across the panhandles which should lead to a lower
chance for organized severe weather. This doesn`t mean there wont
be any severe weather just that it will be more pulse storm vs
supercells. Moisture amounts and slow steering flows will allow
for storms with high rain rates to form a sit for a long time over
a single spot so flash flooding is a concern come this Sunday.
Temperatures on Sunday will be much cooler than Saturday with
highs falling to the 70s and 80s. Monday will see continued rain
and even thunderstorm activity. The big change will be that there
is better odds than not that a secondary cold front or surge of
cold air will pass across the panhandles. This will make it more
likely that the rain becomes a steady stratiform rain of moderate
intensity. Temperatures should cool even more with 70s across the
panhandles and a small chance of 60s being seen for highs. Tuesday
and Wednesday the ridge has better odds than not to push back
across the southern plains becoming the more established feature
for the panhandles. This should move most of the moisture out of
the panhandles leading to a small period of dry weather. Under
the ridge the temperatures are likely to see a warming trend with
highs returning to the 90s by Wednesday. Thursday should see the
ridge remain across the region with the highs reaching there peak
for the latter portions of the week with highs back in the 100s.
Some moisture moving back across the panhandles has a low chance
of sparking of some high based rain showers and thunderstorms.
Friday the ridge seems to be weakening as another pattern change
may occur. For weather purposes Friday should mirror Thursday
just slight cooler with most places peaking in the upper 90s.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions will persist for the first few hours of this TAF
issuance. Thunderstorms will move through KDHT and KGUY around or
after 00z. These storms could reach it as far south as KAMA, but
confidence is not high enough to include mentions in the TAF at
this time. Sporadic gusty winds are possible with any sites that
have thunderstorms. VFR conditions are forecast after storms move
east of the terminals. Gusty winds out of the southwest will
eventually decrease and switch to out of the northwest to north.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73 101  64  83 /  20  10  40  40
Beaver OK                  70  95  62  79 /  40  10  60  20
Boise City OK              63  92  59  74 /  20  30  60  40
Borger TX                  75 104  65  84 /  30  10  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              72 103  65  83 /  30  10  50  40
Canyon TX                  72 101  65  85 /  10  10  40  40
Clarendon TX               73 100  66  85 /  10  10  30  40
Dalhart TX                 65  97  61  78 /  30  20  50  40
Guymon OK                  66  95  61  78 /  40  10  60  30
Hereford TX                71 102  65  87 /  10  10  40  40
Lipscomb TX                72 100  65  80 /  30  10  50  30
Pampa TX                   74 100  64  82 /  20  10  50  30
Shamrock TX                73 100  67  85 /  20   0  30  40
Wellington TX              73 102  70  90 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...05