468
FXUS64 KAMA 081904
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
204 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Daily chances for thunderstorms will continue today and tomorrow
for the Panhandles. Both days could feature strong to severe
storms, with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging
winds. For Sunday night, moderate to high rainfall rates may lead
to flash flooding.

Early this afternoon, temperatures have mostly risen into the 90s
for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Temperatures should
continue to increase with the southern half of the Texas Panhandle
reaching the triple digit mark. Thunderstorms have begun to
develop across the higher terrain of NM/CO and they should slowly
drift off to the east. Cumulus has started to develop across the
northwestern Panhandles and more are expected to develop across
the central over the next hour or two. Scattered thunderstorms
should develop across the Panhandles as we reach peak heating and
convective temperatures as depicted by the 12z KAMA observed
sounding. Limited MLCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg should keep
the large hail threat down, but cannot rule out an updraft strong
enough to produce hail upwards of half dollar to ping pong balls.
The primary threat will be strong downburst wind gusts as inverted
v soundings are looking likely with the dry lower levels to the
surface. An additional chance for convection will be possible
during the overnight hours as storms move across CO/KS and may
impact the Oklahoma Panhandle late tonight. The severe threat
should be fairly low at that point but strong gusty winds will
still be possible. With moisture surging into the region overnight
and with a weak front along with outflow boundaries across the
CWA, cannot rule out a few showers or storms forming before
sunrise on Sunday.

Sunday has the potential to be more impactful for a larger area
with the thunderstorms during the evening through the overnight
hours. The weak front looks to stall somewhere across the southern
Texas Panhandle or perhaps a bit further south. Currently am
leaning towards a further north placement given recent fronts have
been slower/stalled further north than most model guidance has
suggested. This would be a focal area for potential development
and/or training of thunderstorms later in the day. There is quite
a bit of uncertainty regarding the severe weather threat, as low
clouds are very likely across the area on Sunday morning. The
quicker the clouds burn off or move out of the area, temperatures
will rise and the severe threat may increase as storms would have
the potential to be surface based. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts still look to be the primary impacts if storms do become
severe. The higher threat will be heavy rainfall leading to flash
flooding. PWAT values are forecast to be above the 90th percentile
based on climatology for this time of year. The latest 08/12z HREF
show upwards of a 50, and close to, 60 percent chance for rainfall
rates to be at least 1 inch per hour as storms move into the
Panhandles during the overnight hours. These high rain rates could
lead to flash flooding, especially in urban areas. If trends
continue, a Flood Watch may be needed in future forecast
issuances. Showers and storms will continue through the overnight
hours into Monday morning.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Monday, an H5 mid to upper cutoff low is progged to develop off
the coast of southern CA and northern Baja Peninsula. This trough
is expected to kick off some shortwaves to the northwest through
NM into the combined Panhandles bringing additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Much of the shower
and thunderstorm activity for Monday may be early in the day from
residual activity starting the night before on Sunday night. PWAT
values remain high through Monday night and any additional upper
level support will potentially adding some shower and
thunderstorm activity later in the day through the overnight
period into Tue morning as well. Flash flooding may continue to
be an issue if additional shower/thunderstorms can be achieved.

Have stayed with NBM PoPs through the extended with pops tapering
off Tue into Tue night. With high pressure building over Mexico
and bringing some height rises building northward into the
combined Panhandles, afternoon temperatures Tue are expected to
rise back into the 80s. With additional building into Wed,
afternoon temperatures Wed are expected to make it back into the
90s with the potential of triple digits returning by Thu
afternoon. Wed and Thu are expected to be mainly dry with PoPs
returning Fri. These PoPs will mainly be in the northwestern
combined Panhandles Fri, once the aforementioned low off the
southern coast of CA breaks away and heads northeast passing over
the northwestern portions of the FA as shortwave. There is still
some uncertainly with how the pattern will evolve this far out or
when the shortwave from the low may actually bring precip to the
northwest. Shower/thunder activity may potentially not occur until
Sat.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Main aviation concern during this TAF cycle will be thunderstorm
chances at all sites. Have included TEMPO groups for KAMA/KGUY as
they have the higher potential to see thunderstorms over the
terminals. Sporadic gusty winds are expected if thunderstorms move
over the terminals. Winds will become easterly overnight and low
clouds are forecast to move in across the area. Higher potential
for low clouds will be at KGUY followed by KDHT and then KAMA.
Have not included MVFR ceilings at KDHT or KAMA for now as
confidence is not high enough at this time.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  87  62  76 /  40  30  90  70
Beaver OK                  63  81  60  77 /  60  30  60  40
Boise City OK              59  78  57  72 /  40  40  70  60
Borger TX                  67  87  63  78 /  40  30  80  70
Boys Ranch TX              64  86  62  78 /  40  40  90  80
Canyon TX                  66  88  60  76 /  30  30  90  70
Clarendon TX               67  88  62  74 /  20  30  80  70
Dalhart TX                 60  82  58  74 /  40  40  80  70
Guymon OK                  61  80  59  73 /  60  30  70  60
Hereford TX                67  89  61  79 /  30  40  90  70
Lipscomb TX                64  83  61  77 /  40  30  70  50
Pampa TX                   65  84  61  75 /  30  30  80  60
Shamrock TX                67  88  62  77 /  20  30  70  60
Wellington TX              70  93  63  79 /  10  20  70  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05