451
FXUS64 KAMA 141118
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Abnormally warm temperatures continue today. Although there won`t be
a downsloping aspect to the surface winds for much of the area
unlike yesterday, 850mb temperatures look to be at least a few
degrees warmer which should result in similar high temperatures for
much of the Panhandles. A surface trough will mix eastward through
the day, moving as far east as somewhere in the two easternmost
stacks of counties. Still, there will be enough mid-level moisture
for cumulus development in the late morning/afternoon hours even
west of the surface trough. As temperatures reach the convective
temperature, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible primarily in roughly the southeastern half of the CWA.
Forecast soundings show a very well defined inverted-V thermodynamic
profile suggesting the potential for any shower or thunderstorm to
be capable of producing winds up to 55 mph, though a wind gust of 60
to 70 mph can`t be ruled out. Finally... Palo Duro Canyon will be
close to Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees), but will hold off
given two factors: First... although the winds will mostly be
favored for heat enhancement, it is getting later in the year thus
there may not be as much heating within the Canyon due to the lower
sun angle. Second... it appears quite favorable that cumulus clouds
will develop in the late morning/afternoon hours, and there is a
chance for thunderstorms potentially as early as 2 PM.

Sunday... highs will be at least a couple degrees less hot across
the Panhandles, but still well above average for mid-September. Dry
air aloft, which was originally brought in to the Gulf of Mexico
from the cyclonic flow around the low pressure stuck in the mid-
South, will get advected into the Texas Panhandle today. This could
inhibit the development of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon, though there are some hints of just-in-time mid-level
moisture moving in by the late afternoon. Although several CAMs
suggest there is some potential for showers and thunderstorms, NBM
gives less than 10% PoPs. Won`t be surprised if there is some
activity Sunday afternoon, especially if mid-level moisture moves in
quicker than currently anticipated, but will leave the very low NBM
PoPs in for now.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will likely return to
the forecast area Monday afternoon through Friday as hard to time
minor upper level shortwave trofs embedded in the overall large
scale western states upper level trof may impact the southern high
plains. There may be a day or two within the long term periods in
which better precipitation chances occur as well as a relative
minimum on a couple days. Which days end up better for shower and
thunderstorm development and which ones end up drier is rather
problematic this far out in time. Medium range models and the
associated ensembles are in better agreement with the overall
upper level pattern but continue to disagree on the hard to time
smaller scale disturbances embedded in the flow. Therefore, have
continued to incorporate the NBM pops for all periods of the long
term forecast, with further adjustments likely as time gets
closer. Temperatures will slowly ease downward slightly from
Monday through Friday, and this trend is reflected in the NBM
temperatures.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible at KAMA this afternoon, but
confidence regarding a thunderstorm impacting the terminal is too
low to include thunderstorm mentions at this time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  64  96  64 /  20  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  94  60  95  63 /   0  10  10  10
Boise City OK              92  57  93  60 /   0  10   0  10
Borger TX                 102  63 100  65 /  20  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              98  63  96  63 /  10  10  10  10
Canyon TX                  97  63  95  62 /  20  10  10  10
Clarendon TX              100  63  96  64 /  20  20  10  10
Dalhart TX                 95  57  93  58 /   0  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  95  57  96  62 /  10  10  10  10
Hereford TX                99  62  96  62 /  20  10  10  10
Lipscomb TX                98  63  96  66 /  20  20  10  10
Pampa TX                   98  63  95  63 /  20  20  10  10
Shamrock TX               100  63  96  65 /  20  20  10  10
Wellington TX             101  65  98  66 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...52