303
FXUS64 KAMA 240514
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1214 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Today continues to see potential as a duel threat day with low
chances of severe thunderstorm in the eastern Panhandles and
critical fire weather expected across the west. With the severe
potential for today, latest model agreement is still seeing good
zonal flow in the mid to upper levels alongside a strengthening
lee-side surface low. These two are currently working in
conjunction to push the dryline back east alongside the present
low-level moisture that built in during the overnight. As it
stands, latest CAMs are seeing very good ingredient east of the
dryline that would sustain a strong severe storm this afternoon.
Currently, MLCAPE values are trending round 3000 to 3500 J/kg
along our eastern most border with some models peaking out near
4000 J/kg. Good shear is also present with effective bulk shear
pushing 30 to 40 kt in those same areas. However, development of
storms continues to lean more on the very conditional side for the
day with most models not expecting storms developing over our
area at all. One of the main factors in halting development
continues to be the presence of very dry and stable air at the mid
to upper-levels of the atmosphere that is moving in with this
zonal flow. This air pocket will keep the atmosphere very well
capped for the day making it hard for storms to develop
convectivly this afternoon and evening. The dryline also will not
be much help either as most models are expecting it to stay right
in our eastern most counties which would result in any development
off of the boundary quickly exiting into Central Oklahoma. Still,
any development that does occur will have to be monitored given
the ingredients present are capable of producing all hazards.

Meanwhile in the westerner half of the Panhandles, critical fire
weather conditions are present with latest observation sensor
already seeing winds gust over 30 mph this afternoon. Added to
this will be relative humidity values dropping into the single
digits clear into the evening hours. Given current conditions, a
Red Flag Warning will be ongoing until 8 pm tonight for most of
the western Texas Panhandles. As we head into the overnight, look
for a weak cold front will move in from the north late Thursday
night following a northerly trough. Breezy northerly winds will
likely follow the passage alongside a slight recovery of RH values
back into the low 40% range. Otherwise, much quieter and cooler
condition will likely follow Friday with afternoon temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Saturday a trough still looks to eject from the desert SW and pass
across the Great Plains. The passage of this system will cause
the winds to become gusty from the SW to W. There will not be
moisture associated with this system in fact the winds will likely
move even drier air across the panhandles. The gusty winds
coupled with the dry conditions will lead to critical fire
conditions across much of the western panhandles with elevated
conditions across the rest of the panhandles. The winds will also
bring warmer air into the panhandles and cause some subsidence
heating be going from higher terrain to lower terrain. This will
make Saturday hot with highs in the 90s. These hotter and drier
conditions wont last to long as a cold front associated with the
trough will scrape across the panhandles late on Saturday into
early Sunday. This will shift the winds to the north and begin a
cooling trend. This will see the highs drop to the 80s and 90s for
Sunday and then 80s for Monday. While conditions become a little
more moist no weather much less cloud cover is expected. The
overall weather pattern Sunday and Monday will shift to a more NW
flow aloft across the panhandles as a ridge develops over NM and
CO. This pattern looks more likely than not to persist through the
mid week. The pattern will likely set up SE winds across the
southern plains which will allow moisture to push into the
panhandles. This moisture will be coupled with overall unstable
conditions which should prove sufficient to spark off daytime
rain showers and thunderstorms. The moisture depth likewise looks
sufficient for these rain showers and thunderstorms to produce
meaningful rain amounts across the panhandles. If minor troughs
manage to round the ridge and pass into the panhandles then even
strong to severe thunderstorms could result. It is still to far
out to tell if this will be the case but such a setup is not
uncommon so it must be considered as a possibility. Temperatures
for mid week look to remain near normal with 80s to low 90s being
most probable at this time.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this period. The main
feature of concern will be a cold front that`s approaching the
Panhandles tonight. Have attempted to time it out based on its
current pace for each terminal, but slight adjustments may need to
be made. Expect gusty winds with the frontal passage as well as behind
it. Gusts above 35 kts will be possible at KAMA and KGUY. Winds
gradually weaken through the day.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  54  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  81  51  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              77  49  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  84  56  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              84  54  96  55 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  53  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               81  54  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 79  49  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  79  50  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                85  54  95  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                81  54  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   81  54  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                82  54  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              84  55  99  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...52