Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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538 FXUS64 KAMA 212327 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 627 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Tonight will be a fairly quiet night weather wise as the main impacts will be a cold front move through and bring temperatures back into the mid 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday morning. Winds will be around 15 to 25 mph, so nothing to excessive by Panhandle standards. As far as Wednesday goes for highs, it`s a little up in the air, as we have a battle between warmer air quickly returning, or a cold moist pocket lingering in our south and east. Overall, the forecast has trended towards the warmer solution. That being said we will have to keep an eye on the southeast tonight. If the colder solution pans out, then we could get some low clouds and maybe even some drizzle. Additionally, if the cooler/moist solution pans out for Wednesday night, we could get enough moisture to saturate to the top of the inversion, and there is ample CAPE (>3000 J/kg) above the inversion, that we could get some overnight storms in the southeast. Especially as we expect a shortwave to move through overnight tomorrow night. Confidence is very low so for now no mention in the forecast, but it will be the main focus as far as impactful weather for the short term. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Thursday we`re still watching close, but the moisture looks to be too far east and it will likely just be dry and breezy for elevated Fire Conditions. If the moisture pulls further back to the west, then possible strong to severe storms would be in play for the eastern Panhandles. But again, this scenario seems unlikely at this time. Highs on Thursday look to be in the 90s. Friday we`ll see another quick frontal system clip the area and drop the temperatures into the upper 70s for the north and the mid 80s to the south. We`ll then transition to dry westerly flow for the weekend, with highs in the 90s again. We`ll start to move back to northwest flow on Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overall, Monday looks dry, but there`s a pattern change possibly holding in the extended, where the northwest flow could prevail and multiple days of thunderstorms will be possible starting Tuesday. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will start out of the southwest at 10-15 kts with higher gusts at times. The past 06Z Tuesday, winds will be around the dial at 5-15 kts. Some few to sct high clouds expected throughout the TAF period. Meccariello && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 52 78 56 92 / 0 0 10 0 Beaver OK 53 79 53 93 / 10 0 10 10 Boise City OK 46 77 51 88 / 10 10 10 0 Borger TX 55 82 59 96 / 10 0 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 52 82 56 95 / 0 0 10 0 Canyon TX 52 79 56 93 / 0 0 10 0 Clarendon TX 55 77 57 92 / 10 0 10 10 Dalhart TX 47 78 50 89 / 0 0 10 0 Guymon OK 49 78 53 92 / 10 0 10 0 Hereford TX 52 81 56 93 / 0 0 10 0 Lipscomb TX 55 79 55 92 / 10 0 10 10 Pampa TX 53 78 56 92 / 10 0 10 0 Shamrock TX 56 78 57 92 / 10 10 10 10 Wellington TX 58 79 59 93 / 10 10 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...29