468
FXUS64 KAMA 201755
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1255 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Another hot day is expected today across the area, but especially
along and south of the Canadian River. Have opted to warm
temperatures a couple degrees above NBM given that the 850mb
temperatures will be slightly less than a degree warmer than
yesterday. Did not feel comfortable warming temperatures much more
than a couple degrees as high clouds are expected to move in around
mid-afternoon, but the southwesterly winds will strengthen some.
Will not be issuing a Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon given the
introduction of high clouds and unfavorable winds for heat
enhancement in the Canyon(southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph) in the
mid-afternoon. That said, still forecasting a high of around 103
degrees which is still quite dangerous for hiking activities.
Otherwise, RH-driven elevated to briefly critical fire weather
conditions are anticipated in the western combined Panhandles.

A shortwave trough will pass through tonight but no impactful
weather is expected from it, but it will push the very warm 850mb
temperatures out of the Panhandles. 850mb winds turn back to
southwesterly during the day and will advect warm 850mb temperatures
back into the area, but not nearly as warm as today. This will bring
temperatures down into the upper-80s to mid-90s. A cold front will
move into the Panhandles Tuesday night and potentially clear the CWA
by the very end of this short-term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Wednesday will feature a break from the hot, near-record breaking
temperatures as highs fall to slightly below average to near
average. Winds turn from easterly to southeasterly and low-level
moisture will begin to return to the Panhandles Wednesday night. An
embedded shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles Thursday
as a dryline mixes east throughout the day. The big question will
revolve around how far east the dryline will push by the time
forcing arrives in the mid-afternoon. At this time, it seems as
though the easternmost stack of TX Panhandle counties is favored to
stay east of the dryline; around 50-70% of LREF ensemble guidance
have dew points greater than 60 degrees in the eastern TX Panhandle.
If thunderstorms can develop east of the dryline, they would have
the potential to become strong to severe with the primary threats
being damaging winds and large hail.

A weak cold front moves in from the north Friday but may not make it
through the Panhandles before further weakening/retreating. A dry
weekend is expected with gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the new 18Z TAF period. Some
breezy winds may be present at all sites later this afternoon, but
those surface winds will diminish by the night time hours. As
early as 05Z, but most likely a few hours afternoon midnight,
strong low level wind shear is likely at all sites. Speed shear up
to 50 kts may be had. These conditions look to persist until the
morning hours around 12Z-14Z.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  90  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  61  91  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              55  86  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  64  93  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              60  91  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  60  90  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               63  91  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 53  87  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  58  88  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                59  91  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                63  92  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   63  91  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                64  93  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              65  96  58  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...55