127
FXUS64 KAMA 181922
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
222 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half of the
area late this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and
large hail the primary hazards.

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending
closer to or even a little below normal in some locations for the
weekend into early next week.

A new system is expected to create showers and thunderstorms
across the area late Friday afternoon through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

As of early this afternoon, surface observations are starting to
see the expected dryline form across the eastern portions of the
Panhandles. Latest model expectations continue to see this
boundary as our main lifting mechanism for our activity this
evening. In terms of impacts, most storms will likely be
concentrated on the eastern extent of the boundary, with timing
placing initiation as early as 4 to 5 pm this evening. On the
eastern side of the boundary, general consensus between the CAMs
is placing around 1000 to 2000 MLCAPE across the area, which may
not be a hefty values but should be the enough to prompt concerns
of severe hail. As for DCAPE, values are running around 1500 J/kg
or greater for the eastern extent, which would put us more in
favor of strong damaging winds. What is interesting, however, is
that the more favored ingredient for the day will be the wind
shear with agreement seeing at least 40 kts of effective bulk
shear present for this afternoon. This variable only gets more
favorable as we head into the evening hours thanks to the presence
of a low-level jet that looks to pick after 7 PM tonight. This
jet could help keep storms running into the later hours of the day
despite the lack of daytime heating. What is also concerning is
the combination of the higher shear, low-level jet, and boundary
present could bring about the right mixture to see a spin-up on a
thunderstorm this evening. However, the confidence on this notion
is very low given that everything would have to align just right
to even result in a quick spin-up. Regardless, the storm potential
will heavily rely on the final position of the dryline boundary
and how sharp it actually is.

Meanwhile, Thursday continues to trend towards a more drier day
with model agreement seeing the upper-level ridge strengthen with
the approaching trough. This should push a majority of the
Panhandles to the western side of the dryline where conditions
will breezy but overall quiet for the day. The only expectation to
this dry forecast maybe the far southeastern Panhandles, which may
could stay east of the boundary for the day. Otherwise, look for
another warm day with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s.


Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

All eyes turn to the approaching cutoff low over southern California
on Friday.  Low level moisture will continue to be brought northward
on Friday.  The axis of greatest 700 mb theta-e will be found north
south across eastern New Mexico.  Would expect thunderstorms to
develop over eastern New Mexico during the afternoon on Friday and
then the southwest flow aloft should bring some of those
thunderstorms into the western Panhandles.

On Saturday the upper low moves from Arizona to southeast Colorado
by late Saturday night.  As the upper low approaches and moves just
to our north expect even more low level moisture to be brought
northward and this combined with the upper level dynamics moving
across should provide the stage for numerous showers and
thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.  It will be interesting
to see if this cutoff low actually tracks northeast from Arizona or
if it will take more of an easterly track and then lift northeast as
it moves out onto the plains.  There is not much of a kicker
upstream to help lift the system out and it does seem to be
completely cut off from the upper flow which would also lend to more
of an easterly track before lifting.  If the upper low can move more
easterly, then we may see an even better chance at getting richer
moisture back and we may have a better sheared environment.  In
fact, looking at the inter-quartile of the surface based CAPE for
Saturday afternoon in the LREF shows an almost 1000j/kg range across
much of the western 2/3rds of the Panhandles.

The upper level system pulls away from the Panhandles early Sunday
morning and a cold front moves through effectively turning off the
precip.

Monday should be a dry day in between systems.  Another system then
moves southeastward across the Panhandles on Tuesday which could
bring another round of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Latest CAMs continue to suggest that projected activity for this
evening will be well east of the terminals, which is currently
backed by surfaces observations. Still there is a 10 to 20%
chances of development over KAMA later today that will be left out
of the current package. Otherwise concerns will be on the surface
winds that will likely gust out of the southwest for majority of
the day. Still impacts form this will be minimal with VFR
conditions expected to hold.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  96  68  96 /  10   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  65  95  62  98 /  10   0   0  10
Boise City OK              56  87  57  91 /   0   0   0  20
Borger TX                  67 100  67 100 /  10   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              61  95  65  96 /   0   0   0  20
Canyon TX                  65  95  66  95 /  10   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               68  97  69  97 /  20   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 55  91  59  91 /   0   0   0  20
Guymon OK                  58  92  58  95 /   0   0   0  20
Hereford TX                64  96  66  95 /  10   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                69  98  67  99 /  20   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   67  97  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                69  99  70  98 /  20   0   0   0
Wellington TX              70 100  71 100 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...11