509
FXUS64 KAMA 201137 CCA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
637 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Another hot day is expected today across the area, but especially
along and south of the Canadian River. Have opted to warm
temperatures a couple degrees above NBM given that the 850mb
temperatures will be slightly less than a degree warmer than
yesterday. Did not feel comfortable warming temperatures much more
than a couple degrees as high clouds are expected to move in around
mid-afternoon, but the southwesterly winds will strengthen some.
Will not be issuing a Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon given the
introduction of high clouds and unfavorable winds for heat
enhancement in the Canyon(southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph) in the
mid-afternoon. That said, still forecasting a high of around 103
degrees which is still quite dangerous for hiking activities.
Otherwise, RH-driven elevated to briefly critical fire weather
conditions are anticipated in the western combined Panhandles.

A shortwave trough will pass through tonight but no impactful
weather is expected from it, but it will push the very warm 850mb
temperatures out of the Panhandles. 850mb winds turn back to
southwesterly during the day and will advect warm 850mb temperatures
back into the area, but not nearly as warm as today. This will bring
temperatures down into the upper-80s to mid-90s. A cold front will
move into the Panhandles Tuesday night and potentially clear the CWA
by the very end of this short-term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Wednesday will feature a break from the hot, near-record breaking
temperatures as highs fall to slightly below average to near
average. Winds turn from easterly to southeasterly and low-level
moisture will begin to return to the Panhandles Wednesday night. An
embedded shortwave trough will move toward the Panhandles Thursday
as a dryline mixes east throughout the day. The big question will
revolve around how far east the dryline will push by the time
forcing arrives in the mid-afternoon. At this time, it seems as
though the easternmost stack of TX Panhandle counties is favored to
stay east of the dryline; around 50-70% of LREF ensemble guidance
have dew points greater than 60 degrees in the eastern TX Panhandle.
If thunderstorms can develop east of the dryline, they would have
the potential to become strong to severe with the primary threats
being damaging winds and large hail.

A weak cold front moves in from the north Friday but may not make it
through the Panhandles before further weakening/retreating. A dry
weekend is expected with gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Below LIFR ceilings with reduced visibility is currently present at
KGUY and is currently expected to persist until around 14z, at
which point ceilings should gradually rise and visibility
restrictions should improve. There is low confidence around when
conditions will improve; amendments may be needed as details
become more clear. Otherwise, after KGUY clears out, VFR
conditions are anticipated for all sites with only wind shifts and
speed changes noted in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  62  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  95  61  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              94  55  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                 102  64  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             100  60  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  98  60  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               98  63  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 94  53  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  95  58  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                99  59  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                97  63  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   98  63  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                99  64  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX             101  65  96  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52