235
FXUS64 KAMA 202308
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
608 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Showers with isolated storms continue to move into the southern
Panhandles from Tropical Storm Alberto. Most of these are fairly
stable showers and the lightning threat is pretty minimal at this
time. There may be a little uptick in lightning as we move into
the later afternoon to early evening hours, with increased heating
and instability. Overall, if showers enhance into storms, the main
concern will be lightning, but we could have brief intense rain
rates given the tropical moisture advection over the area and
PWAT`s approaching 1.50". The southerly flow will shift more
southwesterly into Friday. The moisture will shift more to the
western Panhandles for Friday, but it`s possible that we don`t see
any showers or storms at all, as it may stay isolated to eastern
NM.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper level trough moving across the northern CONUS will help
suppress the high over the southeast CONUS. This will help
transition the overall flow to a more zonal flow. Temperatures
will gradually rise, but the chances of showers and storms will be
limited. As we move into Sunday the trough will be further to the
east over the Great Lakes and that will help the zonal flow
transition to more northwest flow as the high rebuilds over the
Four Corners. This will lead to a decent chance of showers and
storms on Sunday evening, as there is a more pronounced shortwave
embedded in that flow. Monday looks pretty similar to Sunday, but
a weaker shortwave so a lower probability of showers or storms.
Tuesday and Wednesday will once again have a better shortwave and
a more amplified ridge associated, so temperatures will be even
warmer, RH values will be quite high for our area leading to heat
index`s in the 100-108 range across most area, as well as more
scattered storms.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Moisture continues to move across the panhandles which is causing
the clouds and isolated rain showers this evening. The rain
showers are currently dissipating and should cease within the next
couple of hours. Friday has a moderate chance of producing rain
showers and even thunderstorms in the western panhandles. The odds
of this occurring were only high enough to reflect in the KDHT
TAF. As conditions become more stable overnight low cloud decks
are likely to develop across the panhandles. Currently KDHT and
KAMA are more likely to see these low clouds on station with a
lesser chance at KGUY. The low clouds have a high chance to reduce
conditions to MVFR with a low chance for reductions to IFR.
Southerly gusty winds this evening have a high chance of weakening
within the next few hours. These winds have a high chance of
becoming gusty again during the late morning hours of Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  85  68  95 /  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  67  89  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              62  84  65  94 /  10  20   0  10
Borger TX                  69  91  71 100 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              67  86  68  96 /  20  20  10   0
Canyon TX                  65  83  66  92 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               67  85  68  93 /  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 63  84  64  95 /  20  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  65  87  67  96 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                67  85  67  95 /  30  20   0   0
Lipscomb TX                69  91  71  98 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   67  87  69  96 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                69  89  69  96 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              69  89  70  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...98