444
FXUS64 KAMA 220824
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
324 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

- Thunderstorms are possible today and once again on Tuesday into
  Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected on either of
  these days at this time.

- Much cooler temperatures are forecast today with highs ranging
  from the upper 50s to upper 60s across the Panhandles.


&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A cold front will usher in a much cooler air mass across the
Panhandles today with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Some
showers/storms will be possible out ahead and potentially behind
the front today. Drier conditions are forecast on Monday along
with highs in the 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across the
Panhandles early this morning. Some of the storms could be
producing small hail in addition to heavy rainfall. Storms
currently are not training over the same locations so flash
flooding does not appear to be a threat at this time. Shower and
storm coverage should continue to decrease as we get closer to
sunrise today.

The H500 low pressure system that brought the rain chances to the
region over the last 24 hours will weaken and move off to the
northeast during the day today. At the surface, a strong cold
front will quickly move south across the Panhandles. In its wake,
north winds are very likely with gusts upwards of 35 mph during
the day today. The front will also usher in much cooler air at
H850, with model H850 temperatures dropping down to the upper
single digits Celsius by late this afternoon. With persistent
cloud cover in place across the region and with this cooler air
quickly moving in, highs today will likely stay in the 60s to
potentially upper 50s for the Panhandles. Some showers or storms
will be possible across mainly the southeast during the daytime
today. Severe thunderstorms are not expected should any storms
develop across the southeast today. Monday looks to be a rather
quiet day weather wise with highs warming back up into the 70s
area wide with light winds under 15 mph during the day.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Consistent temperatures near average are expected Tuesday into
early next weekend for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Rain
chances return on Tuesday into early Wednesday before drier
conditions are expected going into the later half of the work
week.

Broad troughing aloft is forecast on Tuesday with the southern
extent of the trough moving across the southern High Plains during
the daytime hours. The evolution of the trough continues to vary
amongst the model guidance, but the operational EC is now
suggesting the trough will remain an open wave similar to the
pattern that the GFS and its ensembles have been suggesting for a
few days. The Canadian continues to suggest a closed low, but
with the center of low pressure to the southeast. With that being
said, confidence with the forecast beyond Tuesday remains low.
The overall trend looks to bring near average high temperatures
each day with the potential for some rain on Tuesday and Wednesday
as the base of the trough moves across the Panhandles.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving across the area
through the night time hours. How long storms may impact the sites
remains uncertain, but it seems KAMA has the higher chances for
storms to last through at least 10z. Low ceilings bringing LIFR to
MVFR conditions will continue through at least 18z if not 00z for
most sites. Cloud cover should begin to clear out around or after
00z and a return to VFR conditions is expected. A cold front will
bring gusty north winds to the sites with gusts up to 30 kts
expected.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  46  76  54 /  30   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  59  43  72  48 /  50   0   0  10
Boise City OK              58  41  74  49 /  10   0   0  10
Borger TX                  63  46  79  53 /  40   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              63  44  77  52 /  20   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  62  45  76  53 /  30   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               65  48  75  54 /  80  10   0  10
Dalhart TX                 61  41  75  48 /  10   0   0  20
Guymon OK                  58  40  74  47 /  30   0   0  10
Hereford TX                63  45  79  52 /  30   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                62  46  73  50 /  60  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   61  45  74  53 /  60  10   0  10
Shamrock TX                67  49  75  53 /  80  20   0  10
Wellington TX              70  51  76  54 /  90  20   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05