823
FXUS64 KAMA 181735
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending
closer to or even a little below normal in some locations for the
weekend into early next week.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible across the southeast half
of the area late this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds
and large hail the primary hazards.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
across the area later Friday afternoon through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Thunderstorms are still ongoing across the north central to northeast
Panhandles as of 3 AM this morning, with some locations observing
locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts around 40 mph. This
activity will continue gradually moving eastward and eventually
dissipate before sunrise as a minor upper level shortwave exits
the region. Expect another warm and breezy day across the
Panhandles this afternoon, with highs ranging from the mid 80s in
the west to mid 90s in the east, along with southwest winds
gusting 25-35 mph.

Synoptically, southwest flow aloft will remain in place atop an
amplifying H500 ridge, stretching across the Lone Star State from
the Rio Grande to the Red River. At the surface, a sharpening
trough situated from an Amarillo to Perryton to Beaver line could
act as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon
and evening hours. Although storms are possible, they`re no
guarantee, as the Panhandles` location relative to the ridge could
prove to be detrimental. Upper level support will be minimal, and
many models (especially the latest runs of the NAM) note a pocket
of dry air mixing to the sfc east of the trough, likely due to
some subsidence aloft. If this factor plays out towards the NAM
solution, attempts at elevated convection could struggle. But hi-
res guidance continue to insist that lift in the low levels may
just be enough to get storms going. Any storms that do develop
could be strong to severe thanks to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and
~30kts of bulk shear available. Forecast soundings indicate
"inverted-V" signatures promoting DCAPE values of ~1500 J/kg,
favorable for damaging wind gusts, and some severe hail can`t be
ruled out either. Overall, areas along and east of the sfc trough
are looking at a 20-30% chance of scattered precipitation from
approximately 3-10 PM this afternoon/evening.

Models show the upper ridge further strengthening Thursday,
leading to another warm, albeit notably less breezy September day.
Winds will be 10-20 mph out of the west with highs in the upper
80s to upper 90s. A few spots in the southeast and Palo Duro
Canyon could even have a 20-50% chance to reach the triple digit
mark once again. Some CAMs hint at another round of showers and
storms being plausible, but will stick with a dry forecast given
the strength of the ridge currently indicated by numerical
guidance.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The next upper level low pressure system is progged to dig
southward to southern California by 12Z Friday. This particular
feature is expected to translate eastward to near the four corners
region by early Saturday afternoon, then head east northeast into
the central plains by Sunday afternoon. This projected track remains
consistent when comparing model runs of 12 to 24 hours ago. As
this storm system approaches the area, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms is expected to increase again, mainly Friday afternoon
through Saturday night. The chance for precipitation is expected
to end by Sunday morning as this storm system heads into the central
plains on a track north of the forecast area, with dry weather
seen for Sunday and Monday.

The latest medium range models continue in reasonable agreement with
the track and speed of the upper level low pressure system and
were accepted. Also, the NBM pops and temperatures remain plausible
and reflect the above synoptic scale reasoning. Additional refinements
to the long term periods are possible time gets closer.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Latest CAMs continue to suggest that projected activity for this
evening will be well east of the terminals, which is currently
backed by surfaces observations. Still there is a 10 to 20%
chances of development over KAMA later today that will be left out
of the current package. Otherwise concerns will be on the surface
winds that will likely gust out of the southwest for majority of
the day. Still impacts form this will be minimal with VFR
conditions expected to hold.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  96  68  95 /  10   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  65  95  62  97 /  10   0   0  10
Boise City OK              56  88  57  90 /   0   0   0  20
Borger TX                  68 100  66  99 /  10   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              62  95  65  95 /   0   0   0  20
Canyon TX                  65  95  66  94 /  10   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               68  97  69  96 /  20   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 55  90  59  90 /   0   0   0  20
Guymon OK                  59  93  58  95 /   0   0   0  20
Hereford TX                63  96  66  95 /  10   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                69  98  67  98 /  20   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   67  96  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                69  98  70  98 /  20   0   0   0
Wellington TX              70 100  71  99 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...11