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FXUS64 KAMA 180931
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
431 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending
closer to or even a little below normal in some locations for the
weekend into early next week.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible across the southeast half
of the area late this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds
and large hail the primary hazards.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
across the area later Friday afternoon through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Thunderstorms are still ongoing across the north central to northeast
Panhandles as of 3 AM this morning, with some locations observing
locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts around 40 mph. This
activity will continue gradually moving eastward and eventually
dissipate before sunrise as a minor upper level shortwave exits
the region. Expect another warm and breezy day across the
Panhandles this afternoon, with highs ranging from the mid 80s in
the west to mid 90s in the east, along with southwest winds
gusting 25-35 mph.

Synoptically, southwest flow aloft will remain in place atop an
amplifying H500 ridge, stretching across the Lone Star State from
the Rio Grande to the Red River. At the surface, a sharpening
trough situated from an Amarillo to Perryton to Beaver line could
act as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon
and evening hours. Although storms are possible, they`re no
guarantee, as the Panhandles` location relative to the ridge could
prove to be detrimental. Upper level support will be minimal, and
many models (especially the latest runs of the NAM) note a pocket
of dry air mixing to the sfc east of the trough, likely due to
some subsidence aloft. If this factor plays out towards the NAM
solution, attempts at elevated convection could struggle. But hi-
res guidance continue to insist that lift in the low levels may
just be enough to get storms going. Any storms that do develop
could be strong to severe thanks to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and
~30kts of bulk shear available. Forecast soundings indicate
"inverted-V" signatures promoting DCAPE values of ~1500 J/kg,
favorable for damaging wind gusts, and some severe hail can`t be
ruled out either. Overall, areas along and east of the sfc trough
are looking at a 20-30% chance of scattered precipitation from
approximately 3-10 PM this afternoon/evening.

Models show the upper ridge further strengthening Thursday,
leading to another warm, albeit notably less breezy September day.
Winds will be 10-20 mph out of the west with highs in the upper
80s to upper 90s. A few spots in the southeast and Palo Duro
Canyon could even have a 20-50% chance to reach the triple digit
mark once again. Some CAMs hint at another round of showers and
storms being plausible, but will stick with a dry forecast given
the strength of the ridge currently indicated by numerical
guidance.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The next upper level low pressure system is progged to dig
southward to southern California by 12Z Friday. This particular
feature is expected to translate eastward to near the four corners
region by early Saturday afternoon, then head east northeast into
the central plains by Sunday afternoon. This projected track remains
consistent when comparing model runs of 12 to 24 hours ago. As
this storm system approaches the area, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms is expected to increase again, mainly Friday afternoon
through Saturday night. The chance for precipitation is expected
to end by Sunday morning as this storm system heads into the central
plains on a track north of the forecast area, with dry weather
seen for Sunday and Monday.

The latest medium range models continue in reasonable agreement with
the track and speed of the upper level low pressure system and
were accepted. Also, the NBM pops and temperatures remain plausible
and reflect the above synoptic scale reasoning. Additional refinements
to the long term periods are possible time gets closer.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Showers and storms continue near KDHT and KGUY, with a better
chance of impacts for KGUY over the next couple hours. Most
activity will remain north of KDHT, and storms should be east of
all TAF sites after 09z. Winds will come down slightly tonight,
but could be breezy at times out of the south. Breezy gusts of
20-30kts out of the southwest return at all sites during the
afternoon hours. Storms will be possible again tomorrow evening,
but highest confidence is east of all terminals.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                94  67  96  68 /  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  95  65  95  62 /  20  10   0   0
Boise City OK              88  56  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  98  68 100  66 /  20  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              94  62  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  93  65  95  66 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               95  68  97  69 /  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 88  55  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  93  59  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                93  63  96  66 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                96  69  98  67 /  20  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   94  67  96  66 /  20  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                96  69  98  70 /  20  20   0   0
Wellington TX              97  70 100  71 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...38