173
FXUS64 KAMA 160913
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
413 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending
closer to or even slightly below normal in some locations for the
weekend.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and evening across much of the area.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of
the area Tuesday afternoon and night, over the southeast Texas
Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening, and then across all of
the area Friday afternoon into Saturday night.

A limited threat for severe weather is anticipated across the far
northwest sections Tuesday afternoon and evening, with large hail
and damaging winds the primary hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A robust upper-level trough will continue to dive into the West
Coast through today as an embedded weak shortwave trough traverses
northeastward through the Rockies in Colorado this afternoon. A
surface low will develop in eastern Colorado this afternoon,
steepening the surface pressure gradient across the Panhandles
therefore resulting in breezy conditions... primarily in the
northwestern combined Panhandles. A north-to-south oriented quasi-
stationary boundary will be set up in the eastern combined
Panhandles through much of the day, and there may be enough surface
convergence (most prevalent on the CAMs) to force a few isolated
thunderstorms. If so, depending on the moisture content, there looks
to be around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE east of the boundary which
could support small hail and gusty winds. However, aside from the
weak forcing, there will be a pocket of dry 850mb-700mb air that
moves north through the eastern Panhandles in the morning into the
early afternoon hours. Similar to yesterday, there is a question
whether this dry airmass will stick around too long and mostly
inhibit the chance for a shower or thunderstorm to develop. As such,
have introduced 10% PoPs in the eastern combined Panhandles to cover
the conditional thunderstorm chances this afternoon and into the
early evening.

Tuesday... the previously mentioned upper-level trough will take a
negative tilt into eastern Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. This will
result in the development of a stronger low pressure system which
results in a day with breezy southerly winds across the Panhandles
but especially in the northwest. These southerly winds will work to
bring in some slightly richer moisture into the Panhandles through
the day. As the upper-level trough progresses northeastward through
the afternoon, forcing for ascent arrives in eastern New Mexico and
kicks off a line or multiple broken lines of thunderstorms that
track into the Panhandles.  The strongest forcing and wind shear
looks to be in the northwestern combined Panhandles, and as such,
that is where there is the potential for wind gusts up to 60 mph.
The fate of the thunderstorms further south and east is more
uncertain; it is more removed from the upper-level trough and the
wind shear isn`t as strong. Therefore, it is plausible that the
thunderstorms move into the western Panhandles and begin to fall
apart as they move eastward through the night.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

There will likely be a relative minimum in precipitation chances
for the OK and TX Panhandles on Wednesday and Thursday as the
large scale western states upper level trof reloads with another
upper level low pressure system progged to dig southward to around
southern California by Thursday morning. This particular feature
is expected to track east northeast towards the central plains
region Friday through Sunday morning. As this occurs, the chance
for showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase again over
the area, mainly Friday afternoon and Friday night. The threat
is progged to slowly diminish from west to east Saturday and
Saturday night as this particular storm system heads into the
central plains on a track north of the forecast area, with dry
weather seen for Sunday.

Medium range models and corresponding ensembles are in reasonable
agreement with the overall upper level pattern with some differences
noted in timing and track of the aforementioned storm system. That
said, the NBM pops and temperatures remain plausible and continue
to reflect the above synoptic scale reasoning. Further adjustments
to the long term periods are anticipated as time gets closer and
numerical weather models converge on a more common solution with
respect to timing and track.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Winds
will become breezy out of roughly the south, around 15 kts
gusting to 25 kts, throughout the day at all terminals. Gusts
should subside some in the evening hours but winds will remain
around 15 kts.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  65  92  64 /  10   0  20  50
Beaver OK                  94  64  93  63 /  10  10  10  40
Boise City OK              89  61  88  57 /  10  10  30  50
Borger TX                  97  66  96  65 /  10  10  10  60
Boys Ranch TX              93  64  92  62 /  10  10  30  60
Canyon TX                  92  63  91  61 /  10   0  20  50
Clarendon TX               92  64  92  65 /  10  10   0  40
Dalhart TX                 90  59  88  57 /  10  20  30  60
Guymon OK                  93  64  92  60 /  10  10  20  60
Hereford TX                93  63  92  61 /   0  10  30  50
Lipscomb TX                94  65  93  65 /  10  10   0  40
Pampa TX                   92  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  50
Shamrock TX                92  64  92  66 /   0  10   0  30
Wellington TX              94  65  94  67 /   0  10   0  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...52