354
FXUS64 KAMA 230520 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

- Cool, Fall-like temperatures today with showers and
  thunderstorms in the southeastern Texas Panhandle this
  afternoon.
- Temperatures warm up through Tuesday toward average.
- Forecast confidence decreases significant beyond Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely continue in the
southeastern half of the Texas Panhandle throughout today, but
should gradually come to an end from northwest to southeast as dry
air moves in from the north. Expecting today to feature cool weather
with temperatures in the 50s and 60s... after the summer we`ve
experienced, this is quite the change. Clouds will clear from
northwest to southeast through the night.

Monday, the Panhandles will be in the left entrance region which
implies subsidence over the region. Expect clear skies with very
little to no chance for rain as temperatures warm back up into the
70s.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

An upper-level trough will dig southeastward from the Northern
Plains on Tuesday, introducing northwesterly flow that changes to
northerly flow. There is an outside chance for a shower or
thunderstorm in the eastern combined Panhandles as the trough and
associated forcing skirts off to the east.

After Tuesday, confidence in the forecast greatly diminishes.
This upper-level trough may cut off from the jet stream as a
potential tropical system moves north into the Gulf of Mexico,
while the Panhandles remain sandwiched between the cut-off trough
and a ridge over the Four Corner States. The interaction between
the potential tropical system will be interesting to watch going
forward as the 12z ECMWF and GFS show a fujiwhara effect between
the two systems, but any kind of potential impacts to the
Panhandles is anybody`s guess at this point.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Light and variable winds are expected to become south to
southwest at 6 to 10 knots by the late morning or early afternoon.
Skies are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                77  54  83  53 /   0   0  20  10
Beaver OK                  73  49  79  49 /   0   0  20   0
Boise City OK              75  49  76  47 /   0   0  10   0
Borger TX                  80  55  86  53 /   0   0  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              78  52  83  51 /   0   0  20  10
Canyon TX                  76  52  83  52 /   0   0  30  10
Clarendon TX               75  54  84  56 /   0   0  30  20
Dalhart TX                 75  47  79  47 /   0   0  10   0
Guymon OK                  75  48  78  47 /   0   0  10   0
Hereford TX                78  53  84  52 /   0   0  20  10
Lipscomb TX                74  51  82  52 /   0   0  20  10
Pampa TX                   75  53  82  52 /   0   0  20  10
Shamrock TX                75  54  84  55 /  10   0  30  30
Wellington TX              77  55  86  57 /  10   0  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...15