205
FXUS63 KAPX 251340
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
940 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain likely with embedded thunder Sunday night, showers
  possible on Memorial Day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Cold front is making progress into eastern upper and ne lower MI
this morning. S to se surface winds continue ahead of the
boundary, turning sw to w behind it. Some post-frontal low-level
moisture persists a bit behind the front, with low cigs and even
some DZ over the high terrain of nw lower MI. But more emphatic
clearing/drying is making inroads into the Lake MI coastal
counties, west of TVC. Have slowed down the clearing trend (and
the end of precip) by an hour or two in the gridded forecast.
But otherwise, decreasing clouds will overspread the entire area
by late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is
centered over southeast Manitoba/western Ontario early this morning.
Attendant occluded front currently in the process of crossing
northern Michigan will clear to the east this morning. Mid-level
heights rebound through the remainder of the forecast period with
high pressure sliding from the mid-MS Valley into the western Great
Lakes this afternoon into tonight.

Forecast Details: Scattered to numerous rain showers and a few
rumbles of thunder out there at this early hour. This activity
will continue to slide east through the early morning, largely
clearing the entirety of APX`s footprint by mid-morning. Upstream,
a sharp clearing line in sky cover noted over eastern WI, which
will follow suit from west to east across the forecast area
leaving lots of sunshine area-wide this afternoon. High temperatures
several degrees cooler today -- closer to normal for late May...
ranging from the mid-60s to the mid-70s area-wide (warmest in
downsloping areas of northeast lower).

A return of mid-high cloud tonight, but with little in the way of
sensible weather. Lows ranging from the mid-40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Pressure gradient begins to tighten on Sunday as a low pressure
system approaches from the mid Miss Valley. This low pressure system
then moves northeast across Lake Michigan and the UP & vicinity
consequent of a compact short wave moving from WI to the UP. Showers
overspread the region due to the warm, moist advection and lift
associated with this feature. Another fast moving upper low swings
down into Michigan Tuesday-ish resulting in more showers. Dry
subsident flow on the backside of this system will likely result in
a drier period mid-late next week. Heights might even rise and thus
warming temperatures possible.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Sfc low pressure approaches Sunday evening spreading rain showers
with some embedded thunderstorm chances into the overnight hours.
Low pressure track looks to be across the far northwest portions of
our county warning area, thus there may be a propensity to have
better coverage of precipitation in this region, but it really
depends on if the lift from the sfc low clips this region.
Regardless...breezy and cooler conditions expected as the pressure
gradient tightens, which may be especially true Monday over the
land. Latest guidance suggests the upper level energy moves off to
the northeast through Monday, but additional low pressure
development may keep showers hanging around during the day. Another
upper low drops down on Tuesday resulting in generally minor rain
accumulation. This will continue the theme of breezy winds and
cooler temperatures. Drier flow and rising heights mid to late week
shift the pattern to one of lesser precipitation and warmer
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

A band of MVFR and localized IFR CIGs and accompanying showers
associated with a frontal boundary will continue to move east
pretty quickly this morning with improvement to VFR from west to
east across all of northern Michigan`s by early afternoon or
so. VFR conditions then continue through the remainder of the
TAF period.

Initial southerly winds this morning turn out of the west-northwest
for this afternoon, occasionally breezy at times. Light/calm winds
return tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MJG