795
FXUS63 KAPX 231900
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
300 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers Friday night into early Saturday.

- More showers likely Sunday night into Memorial Day, perhaps
lingering into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current satellite shows a healthy
field of fair weather CU across most of northern MI. Plenty of
sunshine with breezy to slightly gusty west winds are allowing
ample mixing. Clear skies tonight with winds quickly diminishing
later this afternoon/evening. Temperatures will feel cooler
tonight, possibly dipping down into the high 30s over eastern
upper. Upper level heights continue to increase Friday, leading
to generally calm winds and warm temperatures. Winds turn south
as a surface low approaches the northern plains, allowing spots
like Traverse City to reach into the low 80s (aided by down
sloping). Drier air will be seen in the afternoon hours as
mixing heights rise, however winds should remain light as they
turn south. Clouds will start to move overhead Friday evening as
the next shot of rain approaches from the west.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Areas along the Lake MI coast could
see some gusty south winds Friday late afternoon/evening as the
next system approaches. At this time, most guidance keeps
minimum humidity values in the 30s to high 20s with winds
remaining calm (the forecasted surface pressure gradient likely
isn`t strong enough). With that said, a few locations west of
I-75 could see some gusts coincide with lower humidity values,
as a few spots could get drier than expected with warm
temperatures and the drying that occurred today. However, all
of these concerns are very marginal as top wind gusts forecasted
for Friday late afternoon are 15 to 20 mph. Due to this, we
held off on mentioning elevated fire weather conditions for
Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
No major changes to the forecast overall with a semi-active pattern
still expected to continue into at least early next week. The first
system of interest is evident on water vapor imagery across the
northern Rockies which is expected to brush the western Great Lakes
Friday night into early Saturday. This system is likely to produce
some showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder (although
instability is rather weak). There will then likely be a break in
the action for much of Saturday and Sunday due to short wave
ridging. The next system likely to affect the region after that is
now located just south of Alaska in the northeast Pacific. Expecting
a bigger surface response with this one with the potential for a
longer duration rain event and perhaps some wind Sunday night into
Monday (maybe even lingering into Monday night). There is a decent
amount of uncertainty from there with model differences on whether
there is lingering troughing or increasing ridging as we head toward
the middle of next week.

Temperatures overall are expected to be near to a few degrees below
normal over the next several days (except perhaps Sunday which is
forecast to be a few degrees above normal).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024
Currently VFR conditions across all terminals with skies
generally FEW250 or SKC. Winds mostly W/NW around 10 to 15kts
with G20-25kts. Winds will diminish quickly this evening,
becoming AOB 12kts by 01Z. Winds veer to N/NE after 06Z and
remain mostly light. SKies start to fill in from the W becoming
SCT-BKN100 near the end of the forecast period with winds
veering S/SE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...ELD