Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 240207
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1007 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures overnight.

- Chances of accumulating snow and mixed precipitation return
  Sunday night.

- Widespread rain chances likely during warm temperatures early
  next week, followed by possible lake effect snow chances mid
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over Central
Canada and much of the Great Lakes region late this evening...
resulting in clear skies and light winds across our entire CWA
attm. A look upstream shows plenty of mid and high clouds
approaching Michigan ahead of an approaching warm front attached
to a complex area of low pressure developing to the lee of the
Rockies over the Plains. These clouds will spread into our CWA
overnight into Sunday morning as the warm front approaches the
Western Great Lakes. Have removed any chances of precip from
Sunday morning based on latest near term models showing any
chances of precip ahead of this warm front should hold off until
Sunday afternoon/night. Limited cloud cover combined with
light/calm winds overnight will allow temps to drop into the
teens and possibly even the single digits above zero overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude troughing over the Great
Lakes continues to shift east this afternoon with more zonal mid-
level flow expected for the night ahead. Expansive surface high
pressure centered to our northwest continues to ooze into the area
tonight. By later tonight, deep southwestern CONUS troughing will
aid in lee-side cyclogenesis across eastern CO...with attendant
warm advection expected to blossom locally by the end of the weekend.

Cold tonight: A few continued isolated lake induced light snow
showers/flurries around the area into early this evening, but
certainly nothing of impact anticipated. Otherwise, partly to mainly
clear skies anticipated this evening will give way to wisps on high
clouds later tonight in response to developing elevated warm
advection. The combination of clear skies and light winds should
allow for temperatures to fall rather quickly after sunset with lows
falling into the teens across interior areas. Some single digits
remain a distinct possibility in the typically colder locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Midlevel large scale low pressure
centered over southern Hudson Bay with long wave troughing spanned
across Canada dipping into the Upper Midwest. Troughing with
midlevel closed low pressure over the Northwestern U.S begins move
into the CONUS and slowly dragging a warmer Pacific air mass
building across the country.

Troughing over the Pacific progresses into the central Great
Basin/Central Rockies at the start short term period. Midlevel
heights begin to recede northward, leaving the Great Lakes region
under a quasi-zonal flow pattern temporarily continuing quiet
weather until surface low pressure moves in from the west and
returns mixed precipitation to the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

High pressure and quiet weather continues through the first half of
the short term. Chances of accumulating snow and mixed precipitation
return Sunday night: Low pressure associated with the midlevel
trough deepens lee of the Rockies. Current guidance keeps chances of
impactful weather relatively low, but differences in the system
tracking across the Midwest will greatly differentiate the type of
weather and amount of QPF that hits the CWA. WPC probabilities on
advisory level snowfall continue to trend westward for Sunday night
into Monday. A general inch or two is still expected for parts of
the U.P, but advisory level accumulations remain possible.
Otherwise, warm air advection begins to push in from the south
potentially bringing localized areas of mixed precip and slushy
roads for the Monday morning commute.

Conditions briefly dry during the daytime Monday and winds quickly
strengthen, potentially as high as gale force gusts for interior
locations as a result of the systems cold front dragging across
Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Forecast/Key Messages:

Midlevel troughing with surface low pressure continues to occupy the
Great Lakes region at the start of the long term period. Rainfall
begins to spread across the CWA Monday night into Tuesday. QPF
amounts still remain questionable along with all the areas impacted
by rainfall. Midlevel troughing weakens and is replaced by another
trough as it crosses the Midwest, greatly affecting the storm
dynamics of how this system evolves over the CWA. QPF still remains
questionable due to the convective nature of this system along with
the uncertainty of the track of low pressure.

Cold air returns below normal temperatures to the region on
Wednesday along with a slight chance of lake effect to the CWA,
especially for typical northwest flow snowbelts. No impactful
accumulations expected as midlevel ridging begins to build into the
Midwest for the rest of the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Large area of strong high pressure centered over Central Canada
and the Western Great Lakes will slide east of Michigan tonight...
with a warm front lifting into our area on Sunday ahead of deep
low pressure developing over the Central Plains. Residual lake-
induced SC will dissipate with sunset...leaving increasing high
clouds across our CWA for the remainder of the night. Low and
mid clouds will increase on Sunday in advance of that
approaching warm front...with chances of light snow increasing
from west to east Sunday afternoon and night. Prevailing
conditions will remain VFR for the next 24 hours. NW winds AOB
10 kts this evening will become light/variable overnight...and
will then shift to the SE at around 10 kts on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Incoming high pressure this afternoon through tonight should yield
generally light winds and sub-advisory conditions across northern
MI`s nearshore waters. Low pressure developing well to our southwest
will result in increasing gusty southeast winds Sunday and Monday,
with widespread advisory conditions looking likely by Monday. May
even see some gale force wind gusts...especially on Whitefish Bay.
Gusty winds look to continue into Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MJG


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